Commerzbank puts chances of a Grexit at 50%

Jacques Delors Institute also explores the possibility of a Greek leaving the euro zone

Commerzbank, the Frankfurt-based global banking and financial services company, attempts to answer some of the critical questions with regard to the eurozone-Greece stalemate Greece and Eurozone have found themselves in, following yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting.

According to a Handelsblatt article, the banking multinational puts the chances of at Grexit at 50% compared to 25% a week ago.

The Jacques Delors Institute – a joint project by the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin and Notre Europe/Jacques Delors Institute in Paris – also explores the possibility of a Greek leaving the euro zone in an article titled “Grexit? Beware of Slippery slopes”

The article presents three possible scenarios that could end with a Grexit:

1. Greece ‘jumps’: The country decides to introduce a parallel currency

2. The Eurozone and the ECB decide to push Greece out of the euro, restricting access to liquidity.

3. Grexit by accident: Brinkmanship on both sides leads to a bank run, leaving no other alternative