The Turkish government did an “about face” on Monday from its original plan to reserve a large chuck of the northern Aegean for a military drill in regions between Greek islands – and until the end of the year!

In a peculiar and utterly provocative move, even for the often provocative Turkish military and diplomatic establishment, Ankara wanted to conducted live aeronautical drills – with live ammo (Firing Exercise Area) – in international waters and airspace between the Greek isles of Limnos, Skyros and Aghios Efstratios.

Beyond the outrageous notion of 10-month military maneuvers between and in close proximity to another country’s territory, is the fact that Turkey does not recognize Greece’s 10 nautical mile airspace limit (only six miles) and often infringes on Athens FIR regulations. The last two oversights could have led to increased military confrontation over the Aegean’s skies in the middle of the summer holiday season.

Earlier, Ankara first backtracked by first excluding a portion of a … Greek island from the military air-sea exercise.

The first notice issued by Ankara generated a firestorm of reaction in Athens, which the new Greek government viewed as an outrageous provocation even for the often provocative neighbor’s military establishment.

In a new NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) issued on Monday, the Turkish government revised a previous notice for the reservation of a large swathe of airspace over the central Aegean Sea in order to hold the unprecedented a 10-month military drill.

The initial notice designated a large section of the Aegean Sea – from the central Aegean island of Skyros northeast to Limnos.

Following the release of the initial NOTAM on Feb. 27, the Greek government filed official complaints with several international organizations, as this move constitutes a violation of international law and Greek sovereign rights, Athens charged.

According to reports, the Greek side delivered demarches to the United Nations, NATO, the European Union and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), condemning Turkey’s plans.

The new NOTAM (No. 0900/15) revises the original notice (No 0889/15, issued on February 27) by excluding the island of Limnos from the area reserved for military use.

Despite being a long-time NATO member and an EU candidate-country, Turkey is one of only a handful of countries that have not signed or ratified the International Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Scenarios examined

The sudden announcement by Ankara to designate a large part of the Aegean within the Athens FIR – everything below 8,000 feet — as a “firing range” was greeted incredulously by Greek foreign ministry official and military leadership.

One theory is that official Turkey is attempting to create a de facto firing range in the middle of the northern Aegean in between Greek islands.

If the Turkish NOTAM had gone unchallenged it would have included the air corridors G33 and N130 as well as the landing corridor heading into Limnos’ airport.

While the action – despite its later revocation – was considered inflammatory, the timing was also questioned, given the Greek government’s full attention at the moment to negotiations with eurozone and institutional creditors. Another irritation in official Greek circles is the fact that while Turkey borders with regions on its Middle Eastern borders engulfed in warfare and an extremist menace, it nevertheless proceeded to “export” tension and destabilization on European borders with Greece.

Finally, the development came shortly after an agreement by the two countries’ foreign ministries to restart the confidence-building measures (CBMs) process, which had been suspended over the past two years. It remains to be seen now whether the process will be restarted after, and, moreover, if the provocation was an attempt by one part of the Turkish state (i.e. the military) to short-circuit an initiative by another part (foreign ministry).