A new survey from Gallup shows that Americans believe crime rates have been going up over the last year in their area. Especially among Republicans, the sentiment was shared by a record 73 percent of respondents. Less than half of Democrats agreed – 42 percent – but this number was also up from 40 percent last year and 37 percent in 2020. Overall, 56 percent of Americans said crime was up in their area.

The U.S. has experienced a so-far unexplained rise in gun deaths and homicides in 2020 and also went through a string of mass and school shootings recently. However, official data has seen no major increases in the crime rate or the violent crime rate in 2020 or 2021.

The data from Gallup further exemplifies the at-times partisan nature of crime perceptions, that have become a hot button issue in the upcoming midterms. Republicans are likely to agree that crime rates are rising under Democratic presidents, who are often criticized by their conservative opponents to not be “tough on crime”. Democrats also follow this pattern, but to a lesser degree. Under President George W. Bush (2001-2008), Democrats were more likely than Republicans to indicate crime was rising. This dynamic played out in reverse under his successor, Democrat Barack Obama (2009-2016). During the presidency of Donald Trump, perceptions of crime became more similar between the two groups, until the takeover of Joe Biden marked a stark departure from this trend, as opinions of Republicans and Democrats are diverging starkly once more.

While perceptions of crime can be influenced by partisan politics, another factor in the diverging opinions could be that Republicans more often live in states with higher crime rates. In 2020, the latest year where comparable data is available, Southern states had some of the highest crime rates in the U.S.

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