Turkey’s lira is likely to drop sharply and could near 30 to the dollar following next month’s elections, bankers at JPMorgan have predicted, if it looks like only modest changes will be made to its unorthodox economic policies.

Turkey’s tightly contested presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are perhaps the most consequential in the century-long history of the republic.

They mark a fork in the road for both Turks battered by an inflation-driven cost of living crisis and for international investors, many of whom have bailed out of the country amid recurring bouts of market turmoil in recent years.

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JPMorgan’s analysts said that macro adjustments were expected regardless of the results but laid out two scenarios based on the degree of commitment to more orthodox policies, such as interest rate rises to cool inflation.

Read more: Reuters