War in Ukraine: Experts say a collapse of the energy system is not likely after the Russian attacks

Recent Russian attacks have caused significant damage to Ukraine’s energy system, but a complete collapse is unlikely, reassured Vladimir Kudritsky, head of the national power grid management company Ukrenergo, today.

Since March 22, Russian forces have been launching attacks on thermal and hydroelectric power stations as well as on central grids, almost on a daily basis. As a result, blackouts are occurring in many areas.

“Their aim is to cause blackouts in some major Ukrainian cities, and our goal is to prevent it,” Kudritsky said in an interview with Reuters.

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, has announced that five out of its six units have suffered damage from the attacks, losing 80% of their capacity. DTEK’s thermal power stations and other facilities, which cover about 25% of the country’s needs, have been repeatedly hit by Russian missiles, drones, and artillery shells. Missile attacks have also caused significant damage to Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric power station in Zaporizhzhia, as well as to the Kaniv and Dniester power plants. Although most of Ukraine’s electricity is generated by three nuclear plants, thermal and hydroelectric stations play a crucial role, especially during peak consumption periods.

“The biggest concern now is the production that balances the system. The scale of the damage reported by DTEK is obviously high,” Kudritsky admitted. However, he emphasized that the system is far from collapsing.

“We are definitely not on the verge of collapse. Collapse means the uncontrolled shutdown of most or all of the energy system. This has not happened and is unlikely to happen; we consider this scenario unlikely,” he added.

Kudritsky said that “limited problems” may arise in specific areas, such as the city of Kharkiv or Odessa in the south.

The energy system of the former Soviet Union and later of Ukraine traditionally relied on massive production plants, but these facilities are very difficult to protect from bombardments. This could only be achieved if Ukraine built hundreds of smaller power generation stations across the country. “This process must start immediately,” Kudritsky said.

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