After the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, it was inevitable that the US election landscape would change. The image of Trump, injured, with blood running down his face, raising his fist in the air, and shouting “fight” three times to the gathered crowd before Secret Service agents whisked him away from the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, will leave a lasting impression on American voters, even though the presidential elections are still nearly four months away.
In a campaign season where Americans and the world have witnessed many unprecedented events, the Biden vs. Trump rematch is the first contest between a sitting President and a former President in modern times. These elections are also the first where a party is expected to nominate a candidate with convictions for serious crimes and the first following the Capitol attack, the greatest challenge to peaceful power transfer in the country’s history.
Until Saturday, many anticipated the “next episode” to be the Democrats changing their candidate due to Biden’s apparent inability to meet campaign demands. It would have been the first time a party rejected its incumbent presidential candidate just weeks before the election.
Additionally, these are the first presidential elections in half a century where a candidate was shot by an assassin. This brings back haunting images from the past that Americans have strived to forget, linked to the fate of the officeholder or contender.
Trump Gains Points
Initial assessments by US political observers indicate that Saturday’s tragic event has already boosted Donald Trump’s efforts to return to the White House. Firstly, it makes him sympathetic to a significant portion of the public as he survived an assassination attempt amid a tumultuous and highly toxic campaign, for which he and his team are also partially responsible.
However, this incident now significantly undermines the opposing camp’s argument that he alone is to blame for the extreme polarization, toxic rhetoric, and similar issues. Additionally, it portrays him as a resilient politician who survives an assassination attempt and immediately stands tall, urging his supporters to fight on. Trump is now poised to be celebrated at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, asserting that no one will disrupt his plans.
In contrast, Biden appears to be struggling with the demands of the campaign, having suffered a severe defeat in the first debate, facing intense internal and broader scrutiny, questioning not only the wisdom but also his ability to continue the campaign.
The Swing Voters
All these factors do not concern the ardent supporters of the two candidates, but they do affect the “swing” voters, who sometimes shift between the two sides and whose votes can tip the scales. Now, Trump appears to be largely absolved of his past “sins” in the eyes of these voters.
The contrast between Biden’s fragile behavior and the steady stream of instability with Trump’s resilient response to the shooting, exuding endurance, strength, and determination, is likely to trouble even many Democratic supporters as the elections approach. The President’s image reflects the country’s strength and internal security.
Although these observations await confirmation from the next wave of polls, it is noted that the former President already had an advantage over the current one, catalyzed by the debate.
