ExxonMobil predicts that oil demand will be virtually unchanged in 2050 compared to current levels, an estimate that contrasts dramatically with most assumptions of other energy sector players.

The US industry giant expects black gold demand to reach a plateau – or otherwise flatten out – in 2030, but remaining higher “than 100 million barrels a day” by 2050, according to a report released on Monday.

In the second quarter of 2024, crude oil consumption reached 102.8 million barrels of oil per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The same source predicts it will reach 104.55 million barrels of oil in 2025.

ExxonMobil is discounting a decline in consumption for private vehicles, in real estate, and for power generation.

But instead it expects an increase in demand for mass transit, freight transportation, as well as in the chemical industry.

According to ExxonMobil, oil and natural gas will continue to account for more than 50% of the energy resources consumed in 2050.

The US conglomerate’s estimates are dramatically different from those of the International Energy Agency, which expects demand to shrink to about 55 million barrels of oil in 2050.

ExxonMobil’s rival BP, for its part, expects demand in that year to be around 75 million barrels a day.

ExxonMobil warns that in the absence of new investment in the oil industry, crude production could fall to 30 million barrels a day by 2030, or 70 million barrels less than global needs, according to its calculations.

This scenario would entail “extreme energy shortages” and a range of problems “in our daily lives”, as well as a sharp rise in oil prices, it stresses.