It should be considered certain that Tuesday’s attack by Iran on Israel will not go unanswered. The question with the collapsing balance isn’t “if” but “when” and “how.”
The emergency cabinet meeting called by the Israeli Prime Minister last night concluded just before 9 PM, lasting more than 2.5 hours. The decision made, though not unanimous, is that Tel Aviv will respond harshly to Tehran, effectively leaving out—once again—the indirect and direct appeals from the U.S. for a “proportional” response.
'Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,' Israeli Prime Minister,' Benjamin Netanyahu said at the outset of a political-security meeting, after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, raising fears of a wider war https://t.co/KfYd6Bdm7j pic.twitter.com/aKFsFwQTfd
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 2, 2024
Israel has a wide range of options for what to strike and even more ways to execute it, but the truth is that it will have a challenge in determining when to proceed.
Israel’s potential targets
Israel’s targets can essentially be grouped into three main categories, which also include critical sub-parameters that could, if struck, affect many more countries than just Iran.
A long-standing primary target for Israel has been Iran’s military installations. The bases from which the hundreds of ballistic missiles were launched by Iran on Tuesday night are certainly in the sights of Tel Aviv’s fighter jets. Israeli military authorities likely already have intelligence on these bases, either from their own surveillance systems and satellites or from their American allies.
EXCLUSIVE: Video from passenger jet en route to Dubai, shows missiles firing out of Iran towards Israel pic.twitter.com/6VUv9OlDUM
— New York Post (@nypost) October 2, 2024
The Revolutionary Guard bases on the outskirts of Tehran are also included in this plan, as these contain, according to Israel, not only ballistic missile launchers but also several fighter jets that are not officially part of Iran’s air force. If Israel chooses this path, it may attempt to eliminate several top Iranian military leaders with targeted strikes, even within the capital of Iran.
Israel may also choose, beyond military strikes, to hit Tehran with economic weapons. Iran has a large petrochemical industry, major energy production plants, and significant shipyards. If Israel chooses to strike these areas, it will certainly hurt Tehran, but it will also greatly increase the risk of civilian casualties, something that, despite public statements, Netanyahu and his government do not aim for.
Iran’s nuclear program is the third pillar of Israeli planning. It has been a long-standing and significant target for every Israeli government for decades. The strengthening of Tehran’s ties with Moscow over the last two years has caused great concern in the West that Iran may be closer to obtaining its own nuclear weapon faster than expected (or predicted). The International Atomic Energy Agency’s last report warned that in the past year, Tehran has been enriching uranium at a rate much higher than the 20% threshold for energy production. Iran has a wide range of nuclear points of interest, with Parchin being the top location where Tehran has invested decades in its nuclear development. Iran also has nuclear reactors in Bonab and Ramsar, as well as nuclear facilities in Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
Whatever option Israel chooses in response to Tehran, Tel Aviv will attempt to anticipate the potential counter-response. Iran has made it clear that Tuesday’s attack was just a very small part of what could happen if Israel retaliates. It is certain that in an open war with Israel, Iran is not very likely to prevail, even though the absolute numbers give it an advantage (numbers, even in this case, are not the full truth). Israel’s fighter jets are capable of dismantling any resistance, and Iran’s ground forces (more than 600,000 combatants) would not be able to fend off Tel Aviv’s next-generation war systems.
