The belief that neither Israel nor Iran want “total conflict” was expressed by CIA chief William Burns, citing information from the US intelligence community, but he added that there is always a high risk that this calculation is wrong.
“We face the very real risk of a further regional escalation of the conflict,” Burns said during a conference in the U.S., according to CBS News.
He further argued that Israel is “weighing very carefully” how to respond to Iran’s attack last week, in which Tehran launched some 200 ballistic missiles, but warned that there is a potential for “miscalculation.” “The Middle East is a place where complicated things happen all the time,” he says.
Burns also said that while the Iranian attack has revealed some limitations in Iran’s military capabilities, “that doesn’t mean that those capabilities are not yet strong enough, and it’s something that not only Israel but also the United States needs to take very seriously.”
Regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, Burns said it appeared to have accelerated, but did not indicate that Iran has changed its mind regarding the suspension of its weaponization.
Regarding Gaza, Burns said efforts to reach an agreement on hostages and a ceasefire are “elusive” so far, though they have come closer at times.
“What is at stake in Gaza is shaped by political will,” the FBI chief added. “In the end, it’s not just about brackets in text or creative formulas when trying to negotiate a hostage and ceasefire agreement. It’s about leaders finally having to acknowledge that it’s no more, that perfection is rarely on the menu, especially in the Middle East. And then you have to go and make difficult choices and some compromises in the interest of a long-term stability strategy as well.”
