Hello, so these past few days I had a chance to go for a coffee with my main source at the M.M., and I had the opportunity to engage in some close-up gossip, so to speak. Now, regarding the current state of governance, I noticed a certain “anxiety,” I’d call it a creative one, to get things done, because let’s face it, the complaints of this second government term aren’t easily quelled, nor is the boredom of certain members of the ruling party. But that’s as far as it goes, because when I asked my source about the opposition that emerged after last weekend’s developments, they could hardly hide their joy, at least when it comes to PASOK. “Anna took out Geroulanos, Charis got rid of Pavlos, and Androulakis took them all out, so we’ll once again be up against the opponent we know, the one we trust…,” my source said with a smile. However, they added, “the Prime Minister called him to congratulate him and invited him to the M.M. for a meeting, getting the response that he’ll come, even though it’s now three years after the first invitation when N.A. became leader of PASOK. So, if he wants, he can call us now to arrange a meeting with the Prime Minister. But besides the coffee, we’ll now start inviting him as the institutional opposition—and essentially the main opposition—to either support or reject a series of government actions and bills. For example, what will PASOK vote regarding Professor Sotiropoulos as the proposed Ombudsman, yes or no? What will they say about Livanios’ bill for the modernization of ASEP?” my source says, and of course, I’m waiting to see what leader Nikos will do so I can form an opinion.

The twisted director…

I asked my source about the developments in SYRIZA and got the following interesting response: “First of all, I was sure they’d take out Kasselakis, because that’s how they think in SYRIZA, but I admit I didn’t like it, because as I’ve said before, for the government, the Androulakis-Kasselakis duo is a safe bet, though of course, it’s none of my business. However, if you had put the most…twisted director to write the end of SYRIZA, they could never imagine such a deranged scenario starring such a guy.” Well, now tell me, who could’ve imagined this outcome for SYRIZA this time last year? Me, I could’ve told you, and I even have witnesses, but…I’m not aiming to be a prophet, so it doesn’t matter.

Dendias…

I also asked about Dendias’ interview (in Kathimerini) and what my source thinks about his answer, “I’m not interested in the Presidency of the Republic.” My source said, “my question is, who suggested it to him for him to answer it?” while they also commented on that very cold response from Dendias to the question, “what is your relationship with the Prime Minister?” to which the minister answered, “that of a prime minister with his minister,” or something like that. Alright, people throw in a bit of flattery, two kind polite words, come on now, unless you’re on bad terms. Anyway, maybe it wasn’t a good moment, as they say.

Until the end

Now, as of a few days ago, we’ve moved on from “until the end” that Samaras had to the SYRIZA people, when he said he’d make them stand trial for the Novartis case, to the smiles and handshakes of Samaras with the Nikos Pappas people. I get the impression that Samaras is taking this “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” thing (which I’ve personally never understood) all the way to the end, as he -along with the other one in Rafina- wherever he finds an opponent of ND, he’s the first to step forward. Alright, it can only be explained by the psychology of each individual, and honestly, there’s not much more you can say here, except “what a shame.”

Stefanos!

So, Antonis has dropped the “until the end,” and Stefanos has picked it up, thinking that with the SYRIZA people, he’ll be dealing with lawyers, filing legal actions, shouting, and getting boosts from the TV networks with Admiral Apostolakis leading the charge, but for how much longer? What I don’t understand is why, if he believes he’s popular and has money, he doesn’t simply start his own clean party and end this? Votes aren’t inherited after all, so he’d also avoid the fuss and the pseudo-sponsorships from SYRIZA -the 4.5 million euros in public funds, that is- and above all those…shady funds he’s always complaining about. Or not?

Stournaras’ initiatives and the news from Italy

The column wondered, “why did Stournaras, when everything seemed to be going smoothly, suddenly raise the issue of deferred tax and its quicker write-off and was organizing meetings with CFOs over the weekend?” It’s a legislated measure, it applies in other countries, okay, it’s not the best for the quality of capital, but now that banks are starting to be profitable, the reduction was planned for the long term. The reason cited by the Bank of Greece, that faster write-offs allow greater supervisory leniency for higher dividends, is reasonable and real. However, it seems that Stournaras had other deferred tax-related issues in mind and wanted to get things in order early. It doesn’t directly concern us, but it’s happening next door and concerns deferred tax. As the Financial Times reports, the Italian government wants to cover a 9 billion euro gap in its budget, and according to sources familiar with the negotiations, discussions are focusing on the temporary suspension of deferred tax and the imposition of a tax on bank executives’ stock options. According to the plan, in Italy, deferred tax will not apply at all for 2025 and 2026, will partially apply in 2027 and 2028, aiming to contribute roughly 3 billion euros to the budget. Note, though, that the stocks of Italian banks weren’t shaken by the news.

Attica Bank enters a new category

And now I turn my attention to the only bank without deferred tax, the new Attica Bank, which received a commitment from the institutional investment fund “Fiera Capital” for its participation in the bank’s capital increase, which is already underway. Fiera’s participation shows that the new bank has moved up a category, as it’s the first time a long-term fund like this -managing 158 billion Canadian dollars and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange- acquires a stake in Attica Bank. Fiera’s decision proves that it believes in the bank’s full transformation, its management, and generally the serious work done by the administration, the private investor Thrivest, the HFSF, and the government in creating the 5th banking pillar and attracting private institutional capital. Just think, not too long ago, for Attica Bank’s capital increase, they were “recruiting” funds from EYDAP, Eleftherios Venizelos, and other…donors, and now we’re talking about Fiera.

How Stavros Takis acquired 51% of Sfakianakis – The conflict ends

There’s been a shift in the shareholding percentages of Sfakianakis AEBE after some internal moves within the group. According to information, the strongman of Sfakianakis, Stavros Takis, becomes even…stronger as his shareholding rises from 45.57% to 51.05%, while that of Sfakianakis Holdings drops from 54.43% to 48.95%. This will happen through the full integration of the related company Alpan Electroline LTD into the group, where Takis currently owns 60% and Sfakianakis AEBE owns 40%. The management has already initiated the process for the complete acquisition of Alpan Electroline LTD to be consolidated fully into the group. Let me remind you, Alpan Electroline LTD was founded in 1997 in Cyprus and is the exclusive importer and distributor of Samsung (mobile phones) and Kenwood, Delonghi, and Braun small appliances. It operates in wholesale and retail trade of electronic and electrical appliances, IT products, and navigation systems, with 10 state-of-the-art stores in Cyprus. According to a related valuation, the weighted value of Alpan Electroline LTD is 28,621,402 euros for 100%, and for the 60% that Takis contributes in kind, it amounts to 17,172,841 euros. Of this, 796,531 euros will go into Sfakianakis AEBE’s share capital, and 16,376,310 euros as a premium. Thus, Takis’ shares increased from 10,820,526 to 13,475,629, with his stake reaching 51.05%. If I recall correctly, Takis had a tough legal battle with his ex-wife. These developments put an end to that conflict.

Elliniko Metro to Remos: Come Finish Me Off

With just 45 days left until the Thessaloniki Metro is handed over to the city’s passengers, Elliniko Metro has already started planning the party to celebrate the opening of this long-awaited and highly controversial project. They are organizing a grand celebration, complete with a major local singer to mark the occasion. The event is scheduled for Saturday, November 30th, on St. Andrew’s Day, featuring a spectacular ceremony attended by the Prime Minister and the entire political leadership. Among the names considered to perform and “dress” the inauguration with a happening are Dionysis Savopoulos and Antonis Remos. Rumors have been swirling, suggesting that the later popular folk singer has been approached and has accepted the offer. “What did Elliniko Metro say to Remos? ‘Come finish me off,'” say the playful quizzes circulating in the city, poking fun at the troubled history of the project and its many delays.

Opportunities for Positions in Motor Oil

Motor Oil’s stock has now dropped to its lowest price level since December 2022. Yesterday, it fell to as low as €20.36 (closing at €20.56 in the auctions), marking a 14% loss since the beginning of 2024, and it’s 28% below its 12-month high of €28.56. This situation is linked to the imposition of an extraordinary tax on refineries, which in Motor Oil’s case is estimated to cost around €200 million, followed by a €9.2 million fine from the Competition Commission, for which the company has announced it will take legal action. The company’s management, in a briefing to analysts, also noted that it is unrealistic to expect a repeat of the historically high dividend of 2023 due to the extraordinary taxation on profits. However, given the stock’s decline, there may be opportunities for new positions at these price levels.

What Could Change with Attiki Odos Tolls

The contract for the 25-year concession of Attiki Odos to the GEK TERNA Group stipulates that for the next five years, tolls for passenger vehicles cannot exceed €2.50. There is a mechanism for calculating the annual inflation adjustment, similar to other motorways, but it must be approved by the government of the time. However, the new management of Attiki Odos is also grappling with a significant issue: how to prevent traffic congestion during peak hours. As a result, there are suggestions for “multi-zonal pricing with incentives,” meaning discounts for drivers who choose to travel outside rush hours (e.g., between 8 and 9 a.m.). A major Traffic Study has already been commissioned, the findings of which will guide the new strategy.

Alumil’s Loans

At Alumil, banks and servicers are awaiting the completion of the spin-off process for the casting division and the subsequent sale of a stake in the new company (NEW ALU-FONT). Alumil will use these funds to reduce its significant debt obligations and refinance them, aiming, as it has stated, to “completely rid itself of the servicers’ presence.” Alumil has tasked Deloitte with handling negotiations with the potential investor for the sale of the foundry, which is expected to be finalized this coming December. As of the end of June, the listed group was burdened with long-term loans amounting to €141 million, following a previous restructuring of its bond loans.

Preparing for Washington

In 10 days, ministers, bankers, advisors, and economists will be in Washington for the IMF’s Fall Meeting. On the sidelines of the meeting, on October 23-24, JP Morgan Chase is hosting a major investment conference featuring the potential new U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jamie Dimon, who has a fondness for Greece – and not just because his father’s name was Theodore. On October 25th, the famous plenary session will take place, where the two “iron ladies,” Kristalina Georgieva and Christine Lagarde, will speak. Greece’s jurisdiction includes Italy, Portugal, Malta, and San Marino. Greece will likely be represented by Kostis Hatzidakis and Michalis Argyrou, while Dimitris Tsakonas will present his plans for faster repayment of the country’s debts in adjacent rooms.

Problems on the Mountain

Parnassos and Arachova are preparing for the winter tourist season, awaiting the snow. But things aren’t looking so rosy at “Chalet Kellaria.” Reports say the entrepreneur who operates the venue — with its pricey sun loungers — has “forgotten” to pay rent to the Public Properties Company (ETAD) for months. ETAD hasn’t reacted yet because it doesn’t have time to evict the tenant and organize a new tender. Parnassos Mountain Resort blames the rent delays on the fact that Kellaria’s largest ski run (“Hercules”) hasn’t been operational for years because ETAD hasn’t renovated the lifts, awaiting funds from the Recovery Fund. Meanwhile, the entrepreneur, covering his tracks, has listed an elderly woman in her ninth decade as the manager -and legally responsible- for Parnassos Mountain Resort at the General Commercial Registry.

Rising Without Enthusiasm

While indices on American stock exchanges are trading at record levels, and DAX index shares from Germany’s recession-battered economy are trading at 1.8 times their book value, in Greece, the lack of strong institutional capital is keeping the Athens Stock Exchange low. Fresh money from abroad isn’t coming in. The institutional funds from the 2nd and 3rd Pillars of our Pension System are trapped in commitments and regulations, unable to bolster the capital market. Small private investors remain unmoved. All this leads to another upward session like yesterday’s, where the room for excitement and hope for further gains is limited. The trading value barely exceeded €106.6 million, with about €10 million in block trades. The General Index closed yesterday at its highest point of the session at 1,423.91 points (+0.88%), maintaining a positive momentum. Banks and PPC showed strength. Yet, serious investment interest in the Athens Stock Exchange is currently lacking. The dominant player remains the National Bank of Greece, accounting for 20% of the total turnover, closing yesterday at €7.37 (+1.46%). Alpha Bank, with new international partnerships, rose +2.5% to €1.507, followed by Piraeus (+2.07%) at €3.75, and Eurobank (+1.62%) at €1.985. The standout performer was PPC, up +4.21% to €11.88, while Aegean Airlines (+2.25%) showed signs of taking off again. In the ever-volatile and promising IT sector, Profile (+4.1%) rose to €5.33, while Performance slipped (-4.6%).

Alarming Bankruptcy Numbers in the U.S.

Pre-election optimism in the U.S. is masking all the small, dark details of the economic daily reality. Everyone is focused on the big issues (interest rates, election forecasts) and neglecting the important ones. Yesterday, it was officially announced that 512 large American companies have filed for bankruptcy since the start of 2024. Throughout the entire pandemic crisis in 2020, 518 large companies went bankrupt. Thus, the 512 bankruptcies mark the highest number of bankruptcies in the past 14 years, excluding the pandemic. In September, 59 large companies went bankrupt, while August saw 63, the most in at least four years. An interesting detail: Most of the bankruptcies involve consumer goods companies, which are suffering from the reduced willingness to spend by the otherwise optimistic American consumers. Many fear that after the elections, a new reality will emerge.