The leak of classified documents revealing details of Israel’s impending response to Iran has caused significant unrest in the United States, Authorities are investigating the original source of the documents, which were leaked on Telegram and reportedly based on satellite data.

White House spokesperson John Kirby stated that President Biden is “deeply concerned” about the leak, though it remains unclear whether this was due to hacking or an internal leak.

The documents allegedly outline Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran, based on information collected by the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) on October 15 and 16. This leak raises serious national security concerns as it reveals details about Israel’s military plans, which could lead to an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Are the documents authentic?

Military analysts who reviewed the documents note that the language and headings used are consistent with other classified documents that have surfaced in the past. They bear “Top Secret” markings and the acronym “FGI” (Foreign Government Intelligence). The documents also appear to have been shared with intelligence agencies within the Five Eyes alliance, which includes the U.S., UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The abbreviation “TK” (Talent Keyhole) refers to intelligence gathered from satellites, specifically through signals and imagery intelligence.

What do the documents reveal?

The documents provide a comprehensive assessment of U.S. intelligence on Israel’s preparations to strike Iran, relying on data collected in mid-October by the NGA. They focus on two air-to-ground ballistic missile systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks. The Rocks system is a long-range missile produced by Israel’s Rafael defense company, capable of striking both above and below-ground targets. Golden Horizon is believed to refer to the Blue Sparrow system, which has a range of about 2,000 kilometers.

This suggests that Israel’s air force is preparing for a large-scale attack, similar to the April strike on an Iranian radar near Isfahan. Launching missiles from a distance would allow Israel to avoid flying over neighboring countries like Jordan.

Notably, the documents do not indicate that Israel plans to activate its nuclear arsenal. As the BBC points out, the U.S. government, at Israel’s request, has never publicly acknowledged Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, which adds to the complexity in Washington.

What don’t the documents reveal?

Despite the disclosures, the documents do not detail the specific targets Israel intends to hit or the exact timing of the attack. The U.S. government has opposed strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, suggesting that Israeli military bases, especially those linked to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Basij forces, could be the likely targets.

The delay in Israel’s attack is also noteworthy. Many had expected the strike to have already occurred, especially after Israel vowed retaliation against Iran. However, Israel appears to be proceeding cautiously, possibly due to U.S. concerns about escalation ahead of the November presidential elections.

Leak or cyberattack?

There is speculation that the leak may have been deliberate, perhaps to prevent Israel from carrying out its planned attack on Iran. Iran, known for its advanced cyberwarfare capabilities, is also considered a possible suspect in a cyberattack. If authentic, these documents indicate that despite the close U.S.-Israel defense relationship, Washington continues to monitor Israel’s military preparations closely.

Implications and potential escalation

Although it remains unclear when the attack will occur, the information in the documents suggests Israel is gearing up for a significant military strike. The Middle East is on edge, and if the attack happens, it could usher in a new period of intense instability in the region.