Hello, a few words on the great tragedy that Spain is experiencing with the loss of 95 lives due to deadly floods in Valencia. This issue is, of course, not meant for comparisons with similar emergencies in our own country or elsewhere, but it should be noted that: a) The flood intensity reached 120-380mm of water per sq.m., while in Daniel, it reached 850mm per sq.m. b) In some areas, the 112 emergency service was completely non-functional because optical fibers were destroyed by the severe weather, nor were the phone lines operational, meaning citizens were not informed in time about the rapidly worsening weather. The alert was upgraded to red from orange after the storm had already intensified. The Sánchez government has now (as of yesterday) established a corresponding Coordination Center, similar to what we saw with our own government officials frequently attending. That’s that…

Seating Arrangements…

Moving on from the unpleasant, far from us with winter approaching, we now turn to the juiciest event of the day. Well, what promises to be more interesting than the event itself at the Karamanlis Foundation this afternoon—where Mitsotakis, Karamanlis, and Samaras will be in attendance—will be the seating layout, the handshakes, the atmosphere, and the side conversations. I’m told that as of yesterday, the seating was still not finalized, and it’s no easy task because half of them can’t stand the other half. So here we go. Mitsotakis and the two former prime ministers are unlikely to sit together, while there’s also the matter of where to seat Prokopis (known among friends as “Pakis”), a Karamanlis (Rafina) loyalist and former adversary of Samaras. For the role of “peacekeepers,” it seems we have Achilleas Karamanlis, Mario Monti—the main speaker—Foundation Director Konstantinos Arvanitopoulos, and also the former President of Latvia Egils Levits, who also needs a front-row seat. The event will take place in the Foundation’s hall, not in the garden, so with limited space, either everyone will be seated, ready to listen to Monti—the sole speaker—or will be forced to hold informal chats inside the venue.

The Elytis House (arrangement 2)

Mitsotakis and Samaras, in any case, are very likely to have another encounter on Friday at the “House of Elytis,” which is opening its doors in Plaka and will now operate as a museum. Mitsotakis confirmed his attendance a while ago, while Samaras, a close friend of the Nobel-winning poet, has received an invitation from Ioulita Iliopoulou. We’ll see who will play the go-between there…

“Dusting off” Weber

I’ve written quite a bit recently about the tricks of EPP President Manfred Weber, who is at odds with several leaderships of European center-right parties. Now, the Bavarian also faces scrutiny from the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, investigating him through three close associates on whether he used EPP Group funds for his 2019 campaign for the European Commission presidency. Just to mention, these funds are strictly prohibited from being used for electoral campaigns and are taxpayer money. All this while Weber recently tried to “oust” the party’s Secretary-General, Thanasis Bakolas, who manages finances and managed to retain his position. Kyriakos Mitsotakis has also been briefed on these developments.

Prodea: Property Sales Worth 819.25 Million

I wonder if something is going on at Prodea. On Tuesday, they announced the sale to Aktor of 57 properties in Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Bulgaria, valued at 582 million. In 2023, Prodea sold another 42 properties for 237.25 million euros to National Bank. The sale to National was an unusual transaction based on a Memorandum of Understanding-Private Agreement, with which National bought properties it was renting and simultaneously modified the lease terms for other Prodea properties it uses. The transfer of the first 22 properties occurred on December 21, 2023, while National discreetly refrained from celebrating this smart move—to reclaim iconic properties (e.g., the old Stock Exchange on Sofokleous, the National Bank building on Stadiou across from Klafthmonos)—freeing it from high rents paid for years without complaint. You might say, “And if it was in National’s interest, why didn’t they do it years ago?” I have no answer, but Prodea, equally savvy, made the deal directly with National without announcing an intention to sell these specific buildings. The transaction clearly relied on the strong National-Prodea relationship, as National had, among other things, issued a 7-year, 250 million bond for Prodea in March used for debt repayment. In any case, to avoid getting lost in National’s holiday transaction, the essence is that Prodea, through its transactions with National and Aktor, sold properties worth 819.25 million.

Selling for Cash, Buying in Installments

Prodea mentioned that the main objectives of its strategy in its transaction with National were to improve the quality of its portfolio and ensure greater revenue predictability over time. They say the Greek market can’t provide the necessary funds for the company’s scale, so they’re adjusting the strategy to be more attractive to foreign investors, focusing on fewer and larger properties and fewer sectors. As part of this strategy, Prodea recently expanded its portfolio by purchasing the hotel company MHV from Giannis Papalekas. For a sum of 254 million, it acquired 55% of MHV, thus raising its total share to 80%. The amount was not fully paid in cash, as around 90-100 million is being settled in installments until January 2026. Papalekas, to ensure payment, secured a pledge on 80% of his former company, now bought by Prodea. At the same time, it is rumored that Prodea is in discussions with other companies to sell additional properties from its portfolio. If nothing else, it’s a clever strategy—selling for cash while buying on installment.

And Aktor Gets a Mall

The Avenue shopping center on Kifisias Avenue, near Golden Hall, will be among the properties added to Aktor’s portfolio following the group’s restructuring around core pillars of construction, energy, and real estate. This commercial property was built years ago by the Sanyo Holdings of the Papageorgiou family but has since undergone a turbulent journey, ending up in successive auctions. Included in the agreement signed by Aktor with Prodea to acquire 57 properties is this shopping center, located at a prime point on Kifisias Avenue in Marousi. Aktor’s real estate advisors for the deal with Prodea were Colliers Greece, while Bain & Co. handled strategic advising.

Endelecheia and the Management of Power Networks

Regarding the other acquisitions announced by the company as part of its corporate transformation, I highlight the acquisition of the technical company Endelecheia, owned by the Gatzoulas family, with a long (though not trouble-free) track record in the construction sector, as it has frequently faced problems and financial challenges in recent years. CEO of Aktor Alexandros Exarchou made special mention of this particular acquisition yesterday, responding to analysts by stating that Endelecheia is a specialized company that undertakes the difficult and dangerous tasks of managing power networks. In its sector, he said, there are currently contracts worth between 150 to 200 million! It is a company that brings vertical integration to the construction field, offering a safer working environment in a demanding and challenging area. The acquisition cost is 30 million, which will be funded through a capital increase that the company plans to complete by the end of January 2025. Of this, 10 million will be paid early next year, coinciding with the last 60 million payment for the acquisition of Aktor.

At the Bank of Greece Ahead of Earnings

Today at 15:30, a meeting will be held at the Bank of Greece under Governor Yannis Stournaras with the heads of the banks. A central topic will be the DTC (Deferred Tax Credit), which concerns the supervisory authorities, shareholders, and, of course, the banks’ management. Well-informed sources report that the banks have “locked in” faster amortization with the SSM, and we will get a first taste of these plans with the earnings announcements starting tomorrow, Friday. The country’s financial institutions have decided to take a more aggressive stance regarding dividend policy, agreeing with the ECB’s supervisory arm on a specific plan to accelerate the reduction of DTC. The Deputy Governor, Chr. Papakonstantinou, will also be present at today’s meeting, and all issues related to the earnings of the credit institutions will be put before the supervisory authority.

Unexpected Resignation

The market was taken by surprise with news of the sudden and unexpected resignation of DELTA CEO Chr. Tsolkas, 32 months after he took up his position. The departing executive was also the head of Nutrico, the company managing all of the group’s dairy investments, and played a pivotal role in bringing the Vivartia group back to profitability in 2023 after years of losses. Sources indicate a series of restructuring and transformation steps have been set in motion in Vivartia’s operational areas, aiming to pave the way for a strategic investor to enter the group. It is said in the market that changes are imminent across the entire management structure of Vivartia.

G. Prokopiou and the Athenian Riviera

George Prokopiou has chosen to position himself business-wise along the entire length of the Athenian Riviera, in addition to his residential properties in the south that offer a unique sea view. Yesterday, news broke of his new investment in the top-tier Astir Vouliagmeni complex, following the summer agreement with LAMDA Development for the purchase of land within Elliniko for a price of 120 million euros, aiming at a total investment of half a billion euros for the development of 86,000 square meters, including 30,000 square meters for residential developments, 36,000 for offices, and 20,000 for a school with an international curriculum. He is also involved in the proposed project for the renovation of Voula’s second beach through the company Athens Beach Club A.E. (ABC), a joint venture with the participation of TEMES (Konstantakopoulos-Olayan), Intracom, and Prokopiou, following the signing of a long-term concession agreement with the municipality of 3B.

History Repeats Itself as Farce

We saw the same scenario as last week on the Athens Stock Exchange yesterday. As soon as a SINGLE seller appeared, liquidating shares from the MSCI Standard stock basket, the morning buyers immediately vanished, waiting for the “fruit to ripen”—i.e., for stocks to get cheaper before reentering the market. This became very clear towards the end of the session: the General Index had dropped to 1,377 points (-1.7%), but then buyers showed up for stocks that brought the Index up to 1,381.83 (-1.38%). While transactions were few throughout the session, activity intensified in the last hour, bringing the transaction value up to 135.5 million euros, with 17.3 million in bundled trades. Those who had bought shares in bulk the day before (and in bundles) were counting their losses yesterday and looking for ways to mitigate them. Following this line of thought, those who lost significantly from the previous day’s bank stock purchases rushed to liquidate other heavyweight stocks that had a positive outlook yesterday.

New Acquisitions Planned by Theon International

Though technically classified within the defense industry, the Greek company Theon International, traded on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, is a company focused on the development and manufacture of night vision and thermal imaging systems for defense and security applications. With EBITD earnings of around 85 million euros this year, its market cap remains attractive at 360 million euros, while the usual earnings multiple is at least double that. With this in mind, the company’s management is reportedly planning expansion moves and acquisitions to boost investment interest.

Germany’s Inflation Rises, Italy Struggles with Stagnation

The news coming from the European economy isn’t good, and all eyes are on Frankfurt for a possible rate cut. In Germany, however, beyond economic recession, there is also talk of new price hikes. German inflation accelerated in October, reaching 2% from 1.6% in September—well above the expected 1.8%. Food inflation rose by 2.3%, and energy prices increased again. Even core inflation, which excludes food and energy, has accelerated, sending a clear signal that price rises are not due to temporary disruptions. On the other hand, Italy sees its economy slowing down. Third-quarter real GDP, despite the tourism surge, remained stagnant, largely due to a negative contribution from trade. Both Italians and tourists in Italy spent less, likely because they didn’t have more to spend.

Gold is Making History

This year alone, the price of gold on international exchanges has reached 41 all-time highs, flirting with the level of 2,800 dollars an ounce for the first time in history. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has increased by +34%, and even when adjusted for inflation, gold is trading at the highest level since the historic bull market of the 1970s. It is highly likely, given the current market trends, that gold will post its best year since 1979, when its price surged by +120%.