Hello, a quick update on the U.S. elections: the overwhelming and even sweeping winner of the electoral contest in the U.S. is Donald Trump, which highlights, if nothing else, the tragic handling by the Democrats in the “gasping handover” at the last moment from the incapacitated Biden to the already pale Harris. A very interesting but simultaneously uncertain period is dawning on the global geopolitical and economic scene. Especially in Europe. The crucial times are ahead of us.
Middle Class – K.M
Now, while we await the crucial results from the other side of the Atlantic, let’s talk about some local matters. Well, my source tells me that K.M has a broader plan for the next two years to strengthen the middle class. Because, of course, he knows very well that regaining high approval ratings by the end of his term goes through there. “Whatever results from the surpluses of development will be prioritized for the middle class,” and the Prime Minister will make this clear at every opportunity.
SYRIZA
To avoid getting bored after the Kamala vs. Trump derby, we’ll almost go back-to-back, as the Anglo-Saxons say, to the derby of the SYRIZA Congress, where… it’s still up in the air how it will end. I asked my good source who won in the member voting, and they replied, “slightly the 87,” so as you can imagine, we will have… slightly a mess. I also noticed that Pavlos Polakis… has now noticed the stories about Kasselakis’ offshore accounts and the 11.2 million euro tax debt of Kasselakis’ father. Eh, crafty Pavlos, of course, you knew about these, you just didn’t speak up back then. Anyway, the same source has already predicted the end of this saga. The others win, Kasselakis leaves, and apparently, he’s holding out for a new party. However, if Stefanos wins, he gets the party funds as a gift, and the tough times will begin for the others. If this happens and the others lose, they’ll go straight into Tsipras’ arms!
HeliKon Buys ADMIE
This column wouldn’t have given it much attention if HeliKon didn’t have such a strong reputation in the stock market for both its good sources and its somewhat clumsy way of liquidating positions. So, the information, which as you can imagine is not easy to confirm, is that over the last month and a half, HeliKon has been building a position in ADMIE’s stock and has accumulated 1%. Meanwhile, there are various unclear rumors in the market about ADMIE, sometimes concerning the interconnection cables, other times about a capital increase.
Jacobs Foundation Acquires Doukas Schools
Yesterday we wrote that according to information, a powerful family office or Foundation that had never appeared in Greece before entered the capital of Doukas Schools. Before you could say “cock-a-doodle-doo,” the CEO of Doukas Schools, K. Doukas, and the managing director of Cognita Europe & US, G. Rigau, will hold a joint press conference today at noon. As reported on Cognita’s website, their headquarters are in London, but they have local directors in each region, while the main shareholder is Jacobs Holding AG, an international investment company that manages the interests of the Jacobs family. The foundation also has a charitable purpose and invests in education to improve the lives of young people. As part of its 2030 strategy, Jacobs Foundation has committed to invest 500 million Swiss Francs to support schools worldwide that offer quality education and improve the educational process.
Another Golden Dividend from Attiki Odos
The “golden egg-laying hen” of Attiki Odos continues to… lay rich dividends for the former concessionaires Ellaktor and Avax, as now GEK-TERNA has taken the reins. As the column learns, the company’s board of directors decided on October 29 to distribute an interim dividend for the nine months of 2024. The interim dividend is 40 million euros, adding to the more than 500 million euros the two groups have received from Attiki Odos in recent years. It’s also worth mentioning that the company’s performance keeps improving. Thus, for the current nine-month period, it made a turnover of 171.18 million euros, compared to 158.83 million euros in the same period of 2023, while pre-tax profits amounted to 102.82 million euros, compared to 82.95 million euros last year. Net profits (after taxes) reached 80.23 million euros, compared to 64.73 million euros, and EBITDA grew to 129.82 million euros from 118.25 million euros. Along with the other achievements, the 40 million euros interim dividend was higher than the 35.12 million euros of the same period in 2023. I must remind you that in 2023, Attiki Odos closed with highway revenues of 215 million euros and record profits, with pre-tax earnings of 107.7 million euros and net profits of 83.4 million euros. Similarly, the total gross dividend was a lavish 82 million euros. It’s noted that Ellaktor and Avax, during the period they managed Attiki Odos, not only have the interim dividend to receive but also another dividend, plus the capital they contributed to the company. So, the receipts are expected to continue through 2025. As it seems, records are meant to be “broken”…
K. Mpitros: Merging of Logistics Companies and Investments of 50 Million
The head of INVENTIO and OB Streem, Konstantinos Mpitros, plans acquisitions outside Greece and new investments worth 50 million euros in the logistics group, as he stated yesterday at a conference. “We will continue to look for opportunities for potential acquisitions in logistics, mainly outside the borders,” he said, explaining that the logistics group he created has entered a phase of development and training for the application of new technologies in the sector. He also added that there is an investment plan of approximately 50 million euros for the next three years for the implementation of the green transition and the renewal of the entire fleet. “Now, we are focusing on merging the companies, so that by 2025, we will have a corporate entity that integrates all operations,” continued Mpitros. He also predicted that even if there is a small recessionary cycle, Greece’s economic outlook is positive, at least for the next 5 to 7 years.
The Restructuring of MSCI Greece Standard and TITAN
Amid all the chaos surrounding the U.S. elections, tonight we also have the announcements for the restructuring of the MSCI Greece Standard. After the removal of Motor Oil last August, the index consists of nine stocks (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank, Piraeus, OTE, OPAP, Metlen, Jumbo, and PPC). The transfer of MOH to the Small Cap category had cost the stock quite a bit, as there were significant outflows, mainly from track index funds. Similarly, if there is a new addition, which is not certain, the impact will be significant. For a long time, there have been calculations in the market suggesting that TITAN’s stock might meet the criteria for inclusion in the index, but it remains to be seen whether this will actually happen.
Profit Slowdown
On the occasion of the discussion about TITAN, it is worth mentioning that the nine-month results that TITAN Cement’s management will announce tomorrow are expected to show a slowdown in profits compared to the same period last year. This is mainly due to unfavorable exchange rate developments in Egypt and Turkey, as well as Hurricane Milton, which hit the Atlantic Ocean and caused destruction along Florida. Analysts expect a net profit of about 75 million euros, compared to 87 million euros in the third quarter of last year. In any case, TITAN’s stock is 77.6% higher than last year and has an important stock market event ahead of it—the upcoming listing of its American subsidiary, TITAN America, on the U.S. stock exchange in the first half of next year. The entry of Titan America onto Wall Street will help the Group raise capital for further development and unlock new opportunities.
Th. Skilakakis: Don’t Mess with RES
Lately, Theodoros Skilakakis, the Minister of Environment and Energy, has been increasingly commenting on the ideologies around Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and those who aim to undermine green development, especially while projects are producing 60% of the electricity, contributing to more affordable electricity prices. This is not because the minister has become more open to clean energy infrastructure than in the past, but because the renewal of the energy mix with more wind energy, to address the limited duration of solar panels during the day, is causing significant dust-ups in local communities. “It requires large investments, and we all need to understand the advantages that exist and face the new phenomenon, the so-called ‘not in my backyard,’ which has emerged in recent years,” Skilakakis said yesterday. In the past, he added, no one had refused to have electricity in their home because the network had visual disturbances due to poles, which are widely recognized as more aesthetically displeasing than wind turbines. “We see them next to our houses, on the most beautiful islands, in the best places. We have millions of small, medium, and large poles that have 100 times the visual disturbance that all the wind turbines included in the national energy plan for 2050 could cause.” The minister warned that as a society, we risk missing out on a huge opportunity if we get trapped in our own ideologies, which mainly stem from the belief that local communities have nothing to gain from what’s coming, and that someone else will profit.
The CEO Change at Noval
After more than five years, during which the company was practically built with the “inheritance” of properties from VIOHALCO, issued a bond, grew its property portfolio, and ultimately went public, Noval Property has a new CEO. Michalis Panagis takes over from Panagiotis Kapetanakos. Panagis had undertaken significant projects for the parent group in recent years and is currently a member of the board of SIDENOR and a representative of ELVALHALCOR at the Cosmos Aluminium board. Among his achievements, Panagis has the development story of Eurodrip, which was sold to the American Paine and then absorbed by the Israeli Rivulis in 2017, as well as the turnaround of Selonda. However, for some, the CEO change at Noval was not particularly surprising, as there was an expectation that the real estate investment company of VIOHALCO needed a renewal at an operational level. In essence, though, Noval’s development strategy remains on the same course, aiming to strengthen its portfolio with new properties.
Every 2 Minutes an Airplane Flew Over Athens
The stock of Athens International Airport is not suitable for short-term speculative moves. It is a classic high-dividend investment, and the only thing that an interested investor needs to monitor is the steady flow of revenues. The figures published yesterday by AIA show that in October alone, 3 million passengers passed through Athens Airport. Overall, in the ten-month period, there were 27.5 million arrivals, three times the population of the country. The airport handled 231,859 flights, meaning that throughout these ten months, an airplane flew over the capital every two minutes. It is certain that the AIA administration has initiated significant investments to expand its capacity to handle such a large number of passengers, but it is equally certain that by the end of the year, 90% of the net revenues will be distributed as dividends in the spring. That is why the stock climbed yesterday to €7.882, and the company’s market capitalization surpassed €2.3 billion.
Stock Exchange Session of Two Stocks
The enthusiasm from Wall Street, the surge in oil prices (which everyone considers Trump’s favorite child), and the return of major institutional investment funds to Piraeus and National Bank, have brought the General Index back to the stronghold of 1,400 points, to be exact, 1,399.73 points (+0.65%). The transaction value exceeded €126.2 million, but the packages traded were over €44 million, with Piraeus Bank as the absolute leader, where, along with the packages, €50 million worth of transactions took place. National Bank followed suit, with €22 million worth of transactions, driving its stock up by +2.85% to €7.518. More moderate behavior was shown by Eurobank, which reached €1.97 (+1.55%) and Alpha Bank (+0.96%) at €1.414. The well-known hot-blooded buyer appeared in the stock of Piraeus Port, driving its price up to €29.75 (+1.88%), but when sellers appeared, the stock dropped back to €29 (-0.68%). OPAP managed to cover all its losses from the dividend cut in just two sessions, returning to €15.28. Intralot, after the damage in Ohio, found the strength to rise above €1 (+3.9%), and Intracom followed with a similarly impressive rise of +3.15%.
The Harsh Face of Capitalism in China
All governments want to pump a lot of money into the market to boost the economy and make their citizens prosper. The problem arises when the money doesn’t exist, and governments resort to borrowing. Things get worse when the money that governments inject into the market fails to bring the desired result—the recovery of the economy. These fundamental lessons of capitalism have also reached the People’s Republic of China. China is currently facing a huge debt problem. Its debt-to-GDP ratio reached an enormous 366% in the first quarter of 2024, a new record. At the same time, the money printed by the Central Bank and injected into the market to stimulate the economy and mitigate the damage from the housing crisis has not yielded results. China’s economy is suffering from deflation. Prices in China decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter, based on official data from the third quarter of 2024. This is the longest price drop in China since 1999. By comparison, during the 2008 global financial crisis, deflation lasted for two quarters. Today, for the second consecutive year, producer prices are falling, and domestic demand remains squeezed. Amid all of this, the Chinese cannot afford to buy a home, even though the housing market continues to slide and remains more than 80% below its peak.
Why Germans Don’t Prefer Trump
The whole world is watching the developments in the U.S. elections, and the Germans are watching even more closely. In a period when the German economy is in its second year of negative growth, its best customer, the American consumer society, might turn towards a more inward-focused “America First” consumer behavior. The U.S. is currently Germany’s top trading partner. Over the past 12 months, Germany’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached the impressive amount of €67.4 billion. With Germany’s GDP at €4.2 trillion, this surplus represents a boost of about 1.6%, which the currently weakened German economy cannot afford to lose.
