Hello, everyone, so what the markets, primarily the American ones but also major centers of political and business power around the world, have been anticipating over the past two to three weeks has happened. Trump is making a comeback, and in a resounding fashion, comfortably and without any shadow or doubt. He’s leading in both popular votes and States, and of course in the Senate, which means he becomes omnipotent. I asked my top source on American affairs yesterday, following the full picture of the results, for an assessment. “What happened in America is a loud rejection of the system, expressed through a widespread anti-establishment vote for Trump. American voters, since 2008, have been looking, even psychologically, for changes in their lives and daily routine, which they did not get from the Democrats. They also couldn’t bear the high prices, although Trump won’t find an easy solution there either, and they grew tired of the excesses of ‘woke’ advocates and the woke agenda. Of course, the last-minute baton-passing from the frail Biden to the flavorless Kamala didn’t convince anyone. Proof? Trump received votes from Black and Latino voters and many other groups who traditionally supported Democrats.” U.S. stock markets greeted Trump’s re-election with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs. A similarly celebratory atmosphere prevailed with digital currencies, whereas European stock markets showed no enthusiasm, as Goldman Sachs notes that Trump’s election is a negative development for European economies. Yields on U.S. bonds rose yesterday, while the volatility index VIX and gold declined.
M.M – Calmness and waiting
Naturally, I also spoke with my source in M.M, who told me that K.M remains absolutely calm and had been somewhat expecting (like most people) the outcome. Of course, he’s also waiting, as everyone else is, to see the composition of the new government. In other words, cabinet members like Pompeo would be no problem for us in the new Trump administration, and our relations with Republicans exist and have always existed. After all, the invitation for Mitsotakis to speak in Congress in 2022 was extended by both parties. Regarding analyses suggesting that we’re in trouble because Trump is ‘pro-Turkish,’ my top source at M.M calls this very superficial, especially considering that Trump is also very close to Netanyahu. In any case, with Trump’s return to power, an incredibly interesting period is dawning for the whole world.
National Bank Advantage in Reducing DTC
Portuguese banks, with 27% Deferred Tax Credit (DTC), have received approval from the SSM to distribute up to 75% of their net profits as dividends. Greek banks appear set to reduce the share of DTC in their equity capital to between 20% and 30% by 2027. In this effort, National Bank — which is releasing its nine-month results today — seems to hold an advantage, as it possesses the highest capital surplus and strong organic capital generation, enabling it to achieve a greater reduction in DTC sooner.
Waiting on Eurobank
Eurobank’s market capitalization surpassed €7.3 billion yesterday, setting the stage for the announcements the management will make today regarding first nine-month results. The market and competitors are eagerly anticipating to see the picture after the complete and full consolidation of Hellenic Bank of Cyprus results across all balance sheet lines.
Exercise of Attica Bank Warrants Begins Tomorrow
Following the successful capital increase of Attica Bank, the exercise of warrants, amounting to €62.9 million, will begin tomorrow, Friday, and continue until November 28. Each warrant converts into 3.5 shares at a price of €0.05 each. With shares from the warrants, the average acquisition price of Attica Bank’s stock for shareholders will settle at approximately €0.45 cents.
Martinos Joins Konstantakopoulos-Stassinopoulos at OAKA
A major business name has entered the “Stadio 2020” project, set to carry out a large investment in the Tennis Center at OAKA to create a modern sports complex, aiming to host major international tennis tournaments. According to sources, Kikos Martinos, son of shipowner Andreas Martinos, participated in a capital increase of €3.1 million held some time ago, acquiring a double-digit stake in “Stadio 2020.” The remaining amount was covered by other shareholders: Achilles Konstantakopoulos (TEMES) and Hippocrates-Ioannis Stassinopoulos of the Viohalco group. Additionally, Sami Fais, active in the sector with e-tennis, is rumored to be involved in the project. After facing some delays, the investment is now accelerating, with the goal of becoming operational by autumn 2025.
New “Notable” Venture No. 1
Recently, there have been new “notable” business ventures. Alexandros Chandris, son of Alexandra Chandris of the well-known business family, is moving forward with “Bennu-BA IKE,” founded on October 31 with an initial share capital of €10,000. The company aims to operate as a holding company for construction work on highways, national, regional, and inter-municipal roads, as well as pedestrian paths and even airport runways. It also includes projects for residential and non-residential buildings. The share capital was contributed in cash by Chandris himself, who will also lead the company. Until recently, Alexandros Chandris headed Elemento Industries (formerly Jetoil Industries), essentially the operational arm of oil company Cetracore Jetoil — once owned by the Mamidakis family — for its gas station network. However, from August, this company has reportedly been dissolved and liquidated. In the past, Alexandros Chandris has undertaken other ventures, the most notable being NRG Trading House, an independent electricity and natural gas provider later acquired by the Motor Oil group. Through NRG, he has also made a “splash” in the seaplane market.
New “Notable” Venture No. 2
The Tiggas family, one of the most renowned in Vouliagmeni and once considered “royalty” in the coastal real estate scene, is also attempting a new venture. Residence Club IKE was founded by Dimitrios Tiggas, son of Eugenios Tiggas and Stella Lazaris Tiggas — who also chairs the Nautical Club of Vouliagmeni — with an initial capital of €10,000. The company focuses on property leasing and management and providing business consulting services. The Tiggas family holds a large real estate portfolio in the southern suburbs, and in the past had a significant presence in shipping. In 2013-14, they listed their famous property in Lagonisi for sale at €45 million, which was then considered the priciest property on the Greek market. However, the 20-acre estate with an unfinished luxury complex did not sell at the time but was placed in successive auctions in 2022 with an asking price of €14.65 million. In May of the same year, shipowner George Prokopiou reportedly purchased it for €30.57 million. Around a decade ago, the Tiggas family also listed a 750-square-meter villa in Saronida with a large pool, extensive gardens, and a small private beach, seeking €25 million. In 2008, Eugenios Tiggas was the highest bidder in a Benaki Museum auction for the sale of a 71-acre plot in Vouliagmeni for €101 million. This was the renowned Koniari Estate, for which Tiggas paid a €30 million deposit but later withdrew, leading to a legal dispute with the Museum. Ultimately, in 2020, Hines-Henderson Park acquired the land for around €50 million, with plans to develop the luxury residential complex Apollo Hills.
Barba Stathis enters new orchards for €180 million
For a price of €180 million – according to reliable sources – which corresponds to a business value ranging between 11 and 12 times its operating profit (for the years 2024-2025), the Vivartia Group is transferring its subsidiary, Barba Stathis, to the IDEAL group. The immediate beneficiary is clearly CVC Capital Partners, which, through this single transaction, recoups the amount it invested for the entire Vivartia Group. IDEAL, the holding company led by Lampros Papakonstantinou, which is the first listed private equity fund on the Athens Stock Exchange, is entering a new sector by acquiring a company with large market shares and a consistent turnover of more than €108 million.
Ikttinos’ optimism
The stock of IKTINOS reacted with an upward movement greater than +5% following the publication of its nine-month results. The company described the results in its announcement as a “significant improvement,” which likely refers to the considerable reduction in losses. The company’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) exceeded €3.1 million. However, after deducting interest and depreciation, the pre-tax results show a loss of €1.69 million, which is, of course, much better than the €3.29 million loss for the same period last year. The reality remains largely unchanged: Iktinos Marble Industry, in a particularly difficult geopolitical and interest-rate climate, recorded a turnover of €22.4 million for the nine-month period, while owing €42.4 million to the banks. The company’s market capitalization has just exceeded €34.8 million, and it is attempting to restructure its debts with the banks.
First appearance
In three weeks from today, Kostas Nempis, the new (or perhaps not-so-new?) CEO of OTE, will make his first public appearance before the press. Having stabilized the company’s market capitalization above €6.3 billion and taken full control of the company’s departments by placing his own people in key positions, Nempis is now ready to present his plan for the commercial exploitation of investments in infrastructure, further digitization of the Greek public administration, and his next moves in subscription-based television. Today, OTE’s stock is 10% higher than the day Nempis took over and has withstood the pressures from institutional portfolios that aimed to lock in quick profits to beautify their portfolios.
Luckily, There Was Coca-Cola
Once again, the lack of fresh capital in the Greek Stock Exchange became evident. The dollar was rising, European stocks were declining, and major stock indices worldwide were making significant gains, but Greece quickly ran out of fuel. The Athens Stock Exchange started on a positive note, trying to mirror the optimism elsewhere, with the General Index rising by as much as +1.8%. However, it soon looked around and realized there were no other buyers. It then retreated to 1,408 points (+0.64%), but it needed Coca-Cola’s help. The company announced a significant price increase on orange-based products, which pushed its stock up +2.4% to €33.86. The same happened with the banking index, which began the session with optimism, rising +2.62%. However, it ended up cutting its gains in half, mostly due to National Bank, which struggled throughout the session to keep its price above the placement price and eventually managed a +0.96% increase, reaching €7.59. Shares worth €36.7 million changed hands in Piraeus Bank, which closed with a +2.05% gain at €3.73. Eurobank finished with a +1.09% increase at €1.991. Titan Cement also showed strong movement (+2.7%) to reach €33.9. A reflection of the market’s initial enthusiasm and the shift in sentiment after noon is the movement of Cenergy, which almost reached €9 (€8.97), up +2.99%. However, by the close, it was at the day’s low with a -0.11% drop to €8.7. The same happened with Intalot, which once again lost the €1 mark.
Uncharted Waters
The chances that the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not lower the dollar interest rates today have been reduced to 2.7%. Everyone expects a 4.5% rate for the dollar and is waiting to hear the path to 3.5%. At the same time, the yields on 30-year U.S. bonds rose to 4.66%, making the biggest daily jump since 2020. The gap between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and German Bunds increased to 203 basis points after Trump’s victory. Meanwhile, stocks in “green energy” are sinking, while fossil fuel stocks are rising post-Trump’s win. All of this just one day after the elections.
