Emissions of carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel combustion are expected to break all records this year, according to a study released today by scientists from the Global Carbon Project. The study notes that the burning of oil, gas, and coal has not yet peaked.
According to the reference study, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to reach an unprecedented level in 2024, hitting 37.4 billion tons, an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023.
If emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation, are included, the total emissions for 2024 are expected to reach 41.6 billion tons (+2.5%).
The study also highlights that total CO2 emissions have leveled off over the past decade. “The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, but we see no sign that fossil fuel combustion has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, who leads the study.
Glenn Peters from the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo stated that the world is “close” to the peak of emissions from fossil fuel combustion, but it seems unlikely to reach it soon. “Renewable energy use is increasing significantly, as are electric vehicles, but these are not enough,” he emphasized.
In 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the global peak in fossil fuel consumption (oil and its byproducts, natural gas, and various forms of coal) would occur “before 2030.”
At the current rate, the team of 120 scientists involved in the Global Carbon Budget study estimates there is a 50-50% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C temperature increase limit permanently in “about six years.” In other words, the world is likely to fail in achieving the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
Despite concerns, the study clearly indicates that the remaining carbon budget—and therefore the time left to achieve the 1.5°C goal and avoid the worst consequences of climate change—has almost run out.
China, which accounts for the largest CO2 emissions globally (32% of the total), is expected to see a slight increase in emissions (+0.2%), though there is a possibility of a small decrease.
The United States (13% of the total) is expected to see a 0.6% decrease in emissions, while India’s emissions (8% of the total) are projected to rise by 4.6%. The European Union (7% of the total) is expected to see a 3.8% decrease.
The study also points out that current levels of CO2 removal through technological means (excluding natural methods such as reforestation) do not allow for balancing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, with a reduction of only one millionth of the emissions.
