Greece is managing to consolidate its public finances when Germany and the rest of Europe are sinking into deficits. According to the Commission’s autumn forecasts for Europe, Greece is zeroing its general government deficit this year and in 2025.
The overall government deficit (including the interest paid by the state to service the debt, not just the primary deficit, which has already been zeroed out since the country produces primary surpluses every year) in 2024 is projected to fall to 0.6% in 2024 and to just 0.1% in 2025.
According to the Commission, the country will have a budget surplus in 2026.
🍁 Autumn 2024 #ECForecast: 🇬🇷 Greece
— EU Economy & Finance (@ecfin) November 15, 2024
ℹ️ https://t.co/exsg5rdIFz pic.twitter.com/2HSeOfQN2r
Instead, for example:
- – Germany will have a deficit of 2.2% this year and 2% in 2025
- – the Netherlands will have a deficit of 0.2% this year and 1.9% next year
- – Belgium will have a deficit of 4.6% this year and 4.9% in 2025
Only Ireland (4.4%), Cyprus (3.5%), Denmark (2.3%) and Portugal (0.6%) will have balanced or surplus budgets in Europe this year. Overall, the eurozone will have a deficit of 3% and a deficit of 2.9% in 2025.
On this basis, the debt-to-GDP ratio has been falling in recent years and is projected to reach 153.1% in 2024, before falling further to 146.8% of GDP in 2025 and 142.7% in 2026. It declines by 2/3 (67%) between 2020 and 2026!
This is the largest debt reduction in the EU which is “driven by primary surpluses, nominal growth and a reduction in cash reserves in 2024” as noted in the Commission’s report, thus also referring to early debt repayment using the “cash cushion”.
