Greetings, I’m starting with what could be considered a somewhat pleasant, or at least potentially pleasant, piece of news at some point. I’ve heard that…the issue of the Parthenon Sculptures has kind of resurfaced, following yesterday’s publication in The Economist, and that 2025 could be a year of significant progress, if not breakthroughs, in the Athens-British Museum negotiations. The issue will come up during the first one-on-one meeting between Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the new UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, which will take place in early December at 10 Downing Street. The most likely date for this meeting is December 2nd, and preparations for the meeting have already been discussed in London between Giorgos Gerapetritis and his new counterpart, David Lammy. The general feeling is that with the current government, we can communicate, unlike with the indescribable Sunak, who put on a show when he met with K.M. Hopefully.

Mitsotakis-Sakellaropoulou Chit-Chat

A lot may be said about the Presidency of the Republic, but K.M. and Sakellaropoulou still maintain a good personal chemistry. At yesterday’s event for the Justice Ministry’s performance report, the two sat next to each other in the front row, and during the screening of an introductory video, when the model of the new Judicial Building of Piraeus appeared, K.M. turned to the President, whispering, “It will be very nice,” to which she nodded in agreement, and they had a brief exchange.

Kasselakis wow

Well, before I get to the highlights of the day, which are none other than yesterday’s collectible SYRIZA debate, I’d like to comment on the last two statements made by “plain Stefanos,” which I think…speak for themselves when it comes to Kasselakis. One time, he told us that the SYRIZA people and Tsipras had deceived everyone during the infamous interview about Mati—namely, that they knew about the dead—and the next moment, he said that the referendum, the capital controls, and their handling in general were a disgrace for the party. Nice Stefanos, huh? Personally, among the names suggested for Stefanos’s party, I prefer “We,” because we’ll already have the party anthem, the old hit by Remo. Because the president is into light pop music, loves the night and all the fun, right? Come on, the morning talk shows are falling apart too.

SYRIZA – Deep Sleep

Look, as for the picture from yesterday’s SYRIZA debate, we got a bit bored, come on, without Kasselakis and with a polished Polakis, what are we even talking about? The only one still showing some pulse is Apostolos, who reminds us a bit of the café that we all got to know and love, after a certain point of course, when we had managed to escape. Well, as for Apostolos, the wind turbines still don’t have (yet) batteries, for Pavlos, we should nationalize the National Bank (although this is not provided for in the EU, nor by the SSM), and we should take over the Hellenic Petroleum, not Motor Oil, since the boss there has a heavier hand, huh? On PPC, both Famelos and Polakis agree we should take it back, because until 2019, we didn’t manage to bankrupt it, we narrowly avoided it. Basically, it’s the same as always, these people say things that simply can’t happen, or if they tried again, we’d end up back in the memoranda within months. But listen, although these people were a bit boring, they had decent appearances, a good atmosphere among them, and a level of civility that we hadn’t seen in their previous “gatherings.” Well, after all, they’re leftists, they’ll throw in something somewhat irrelevant to avoid looking like Mitsotakis. Clearly, the winners and favorites were Famelos and Polakis.

The Government’s Plan for Debt Payments

The submission of the 2025 Budget to Parliament reveals the overall plan of the Public Debt Management Agency (ODDIH) for the early repayment of the country’s old high-interest loans. Starting next month and until December next year, ODDIH will repay 13 billion euros of debt early. In the following year, until December 2026, a total of 18 billion euros will be paid off. For all of this to happen, approval must be granted by Luxembourg, and the ESM must formally approve Athens’ request to use the “hard cushion” of 15 billion euros for the early repayment of expensive loans from the first Memorandum. The 15 billion euros will be divided into three parts: This year, 5 billion euros will be paid, and along with an additional 3 billion euros from the state’s cash reserves, three annual installments of bilateral loans from the first memorandum will be paid off. The next part of 5 billion euros will repay intergovernmental loans within 2025. The third and final part of 5 billion will be used in 2026. This means that this year, the country’s Public Debt will drop below 357 billion euros. This way, the issue of the mandatory accounting of deferred interest will also be addressed. The debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to 153-154%, with a decrease compared to the highs of 2020 reaching 55 percentage points (or 60 points by the end of 2025, when further reduction of the ratio is expected, even below 149%, especially if good fiscal results continue). Meanwhile, if the sky doesn’t fall on our heads, we’ll also see upgrades from the Credit Rating Agencies.

At Fortress, Sfakianakis’ Loans

The Sfakianakis Group reported improved financial performance for last year, while there have also been developments regarding its loans, which have now all been transferred to Fortress. Let’s start with the good news: the group’s sales (that is, “Sfakianakis S.A.”) in 2023 amounted to 474.6 million euros, an increase of 35.1%, compared to 351 million euros in 2022. As noted, the results were primarily affected by the increase in car sales, particularly in the Suzuki sector and retail, as well as short-term and long-term leasing. EBITDA for the Group amounted to 91.8 million euros, compared to 58.1 million in 2022, up 57.9%. Furthermore, pre-tax profits increased to 40 million euros, compared to 12.2 million euros (net profits of 32.3 million euros), while the total amount of long-term loans reached 289.8 million euros. Now, moving on to the loan issue. As is known, in May, July, September, and October of 2023, loans held by Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank/(Do Value), and Attica Bank were sold to Fortress Credit Corp.’s special purpose company, “Saturn Financial Investor Designated Activity Company.” Sfakianakis’ management emphasizes that these loans were fully serviced. More recently, in March 2024, the loan from the National Bank was also transferred to the same Fortress company. Thus, the acquisition of 100% of the Bonds held by domestic banks in Sfakianakis S.A., as well as Alpha Bank’s bonds in its subsidiaries Ergotrak, Speedex, and Mirkat OOD, was completed. Based on this development, Sfakianakis’ management was in advanced discussions with Fortress to restructure the loans “taking into account the new conditions of increased financial costs and, most importantly, the prospects of the sectors in which the Group’s subsidiaries operate.” Thus, on August 1, 2024, an agreement was signed to modify the bond loan of Sfakianakis S.A. under favorable terms, along with extension contracts for other loans, which, according to the management, “in combination with the increase in sales and profitability of the Group, lays the foundations for the realization of significant strategic goals set for the coming years.” The modification signed on August 1, 2024, includes a fixed interest rate payment and stipulates that most of the accrued interest “is part of the principal to be repaid in September 2026 and thus does not constitute a short-term obligation.”

The exports cost Steel Industry of Greece

Last year, the Steel Industry of Greece saw a 20% decrease in its sales, primarily due to the drop in exports, according to the management of the group, which is one of the largest steel product manufacturing industries in the Balkans. The Steel Industry of Greece, owned by the Manesis family, recorded sales of €265 million last year, compared to €333 million in the previous year, based on the balance sheet posted. However, operating profitability remained at satisfactory levels, as the decrease in exports due to the international economic environment was largely offset by the improved performance of the domestic construction market, where the company participates as a key supplier (both in infrastructure projects within public investments and in private projects). In terms of profit before tax, the result was positive (€45 million), but it decreased by 42% compared to 2022. The key point for the industrial group is that it successfully completed the restructuring agreement, which was ratified in the summer of 2022, and now, as the management states, it will focus on further improving the productivity of its factories and securing competitive energy costs. It is worth noting that, under the restructuring agreement, the Steel Industry of Greece reduced its debt by exchanging part of its loans for its facilities in Aspropyrgos, Attica.

The Germans support the app Freenow Hellas

Freenow Hellas, the company managing the popular taxi app with over 9,000 registered drivers and 1.5 million registered users, continues to receive support from its parent company, Intelligent Apps GmbH from Hamburg. In fact, the company, considering it had a negative net position, as reflected in the financial results at the end of 2023, requested and received assurance from the sole shareholder that “it intends to provide financial support to the company to the extent deemed necessary.” In 2023, the subsidiary of the international Freenow group again reported losses, though reduced compared to the immediately previous year. Specifically, its turnover for 2023 was €11.1 million, up from €9 million in 2022, while the after-tax results were negative, with losses of €2.47 million, down from losses of €4.48 million in 2022. The reduction in losses is mainly attributed to the increase in gross revenues as a result of the first full year of operations on the FREENOW platform, as well as the containment of expenses, especially for marketing, which had been particularly high during the previous closed year when the company transitioned from the BEAT platform to the FREENOW platform. For the current year, the company’s progress is considered, according to management, “satisfactory. Completing a longer period since the transition to the FREENOW platform and a total of 12 years since BEAT was established in the Greek market, FREENOW maintains its position as the No.1 Taxi App in Greece,” states the management about the app, which operates in 9 countries and 150 cities, and has also expanded into new areas, including for the first time in Crete.

Investments in 11 Student Dormitories

Yesterday, the Government Committee for National Strategic Projects met and discussed student housing. The idea is that if students have options for accommodation in student dormitories, it will free up homes to cover some of the housing needs of families. The Government Committee decided to immediately upgrade the student dormitories owned by the state and managed by the Ministry of Education through Ι.ΝΕ.ΔΙ.ΒΙ.Μ (Institute of Youth and Lifelong Learning). A plan for renovation and energy upgrading was drawn up, while Ι.ΝΕ.ΔΙ.ΒΙ.Μ has completed the study for the renovation of the emblematic building of the Athens Student Dormitory. It was also decided to involve the Strategic Contracts Unit (PPF) of the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (TAIPED), which was tasked with “maturing” the overall action for 11 dormitories and the tender specifically for the Athens Student Dormitory.

London’s calling

With the help of Canada and the DBRS rating agency (which is considered highly reliable by the European Central Bank), promises for dividend distributions twice the value of this year’s (from €800 million to €1.5 billion), and with clear and optimistic financial statements published – finally, with the help of the successful Bloomberg event broadcasted across all its networks – the managements of the systemic banks are traveling to London today. The JP Morgan roadshow in London today is the first major event after the U.S. elections amidst geopolitical developments. Yesterday, the stock market bid them farewell with significant purchases in the 4 stocks of the systemic banks, without serious resistance from sellers.

Instinctive reaction with low volume

The major drop in the General Index two days ago occurred with a trading value exceeding €152 million. Yesterday’s healthy reaction, following five consecutive negative sessions, pushed the General Index above the technically important level of 1,380 units, but with a trading value that barely exceeded €100 million (with €10 million in block trades). Among the good news of the day, it should be mentioned that most of the transactions did not involve banking stocks, as 60% of the turnover was in non-banking stocks. From early morning, TITAN supported the market with an impressive rise of over +6% and ultimately closed with impressive gains of +4.41% at €35.5. Everything indicates that the public offering of TITAN America is approaching, with a planned timeline in early 2025. Cenergy (+3.31%) at €8.42 took its revenge after violent fluctuations yesterday, OTE (+2.19%) approached €15, Metlen (+1.76%) rebounded to €31.28, OPAP (+1.2%) announced results and regained €15, while Lamda at €7.08 (+1.72%) and Sarantis (+1.93%) provided the necessary support.

Bitcoin offers big profits without underlying value

The newly elected President Trump decided to replace the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler (a professor at MIT), selecting in his place a lawyer who became famous in America defending the legalization and spread of cryptocurrencies, Teresa Goody Guillen. Following this news, Bitcoin reached another all-time high, surpassing $94,000 on Wednesday, and now forecasts are being made for $100,000 and $120,000. There are many predictions. The fact is that from now on, the U.S. government will be clearly pro-cryptocurrency, which sustains investor confidence in this opaque market. Secondly, traditional currencies, even the dollar, are suffering from inflationary pressures, which has led both institutional and private investors toward alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies. The broader adoption of blockchain technology across all sectors strengthens Bitcoin’s position as market leader. Furthermore, there is a global trend where investors avoid traditional markets and seek refuge in decentralized, non-state assets.

Once again, the Japanese yen takes center stage

The U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) promises it is headed for another interest rate cut on the dollar. However, no one seems to believe it, as the “Make America Great Again” policy requires a strong dollar with high interest rates. One of the first victims of the dollar is the Japanese yen, whose exchange rate reached 155 yen per $1, the lowest level since last July. The yen has depreciated by -11% over the last two months and is now trading at levels where Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in the markets earlier this year. Japan spent $62 billion to support its currency at the end of April and early May. Last July, the yen hit its lowest level in the past 38 years, and the Bank of Japan spent another $36 billion to support its currency.