Hello, so I was writing to you yesterday that K.M. “inaugurated” a new tactic, or if you prefer to call it a strategy, in his interview with Sroiter, answering directly to the accusations made against him by Samaras and Karamanlis, two former prime ministers. “The president will respond either himself, or through his spokesperson, to anyone who he believes crosses the line and offends the institutions that he and his government represent. Whether they are politicians, businessmen, oligarchs, or anyone else. And if one answer is not enough, he will refer the matter to Justice if it is an issue (or offense) that requires legal intervention” (Yesterday in Thessaloniki). This is what my source from M.M. told me yesterday, and I’m passing it on, of course, waiting for the results. And to be honest, Mitsotakis has no reason to make concessions in his speech or actions when they are clear and backed by common sense. When you are right, you say it, apply it the same to everyone, and of course, simultaneously choose the way you say it and distinguish your natural allies (this is key). And the fact that the direct explanation to Samaras about his expulsion did him good is evident even in the polls, which all show the same thing: a slight rise for New Democracy.
Two-day celebrations
From today, the national main event is the Thessaloniki metro, which will open its doors on Saturday afternoon. At 18:00 today, the meeting is scheduled at the Venizelos station, for the government team under K.M. to inspect the highlighting of the archaeological finds that had blocked the works for years. Besides Mitsotakis, present will be Lina Mendoni, the Infrastructure duo Staikouras-Tachiaos, Chrysochoidis, Kefalogianni, and others. The total number is about 100 people, including European Ministers of Transport and Infrastructure: the German, the Cypriot, and the Slovak. The event today, of course, will also feature a musical backdrop from the State Orchestra of Northern Greece—modest things, no Remos, etc.
Pressing the button
As for Saturday, the meeting is set for 12:00 at the Pylaia Depot, where a modest ceremony will take place (with several invited guests), while ERT3 has already scheduled a live broadcast for the day. This ceremony will not have much folklore, from what I’m told; essentially, K.M. will press the button, and on the same day, Thessaloniki residents will start boarding the trains. In fact, the first four days will be free, as the system for issuing monthly cards must also be rolled out. As a relevant official told me, for the new service to be fully functional, it will need about a month, while the interest from the “cardinals” is already very high. And justifiably so, because it is an exceptionally complicated and complex project that started moving when the government decided “both ancient relics and metro,” and a year ago, when the AKTOR GROUP took on the commitment to complete the Thessaloniki metro, it seemed impossible due to significant delays. An important aspect is that it is a project constructed by Greek engineers.
“Skyrocketing” mutual fund portfolios
The real value of transactions yesterday at the Stock Exchange just surpassed 61 million euros. The impressive value of 1.72 billion euros is, of course, the result of the transfer (with 40 share packages) of 70% of TERNA Energy to Masdar. Because I try to be accurate, yesterday I wrote that the deal frees liquidity amounting to 112 million euros, which will be collected by Institutional Investors and Mutual Funds. The number is correct, but only a small portion of this liquidity will be directed by the Mutual Funds to other Greek blue chips. And this is because the portfolios of most Mutual Funds are “ceilinged.” They have already reached the maximum allowable investment limits per share for a institutional portfolio in most heavy stocks. So, either there will have to be portfolio restructurings with the advent of the new year, or the liquidity will flow into stocks of smaller capitalization.
The “next day” after the Kostea-Geitona deal
The “next day” is underway for the Costeas-Geitonas Schools after the strategic acquisition deal for the majority stake by the Inspired Education Group of Lebanese-British Nadim M. Nsouli, a global organization of private educational institutions, with 115 schools in its portfolio. Inspired clearly shows that it is betting on Greece, after its double “strike” with Moraitis and Geitona. CGS (Costeas-Geitonas School), however, which now proceeds without the dominant presence of the recently deceased Christos Geitona, after the entry of the Inspired Education Group, takes a deep breath, realistically viewing the plan for the large investment in creating a major educational institution in Elliniko. As I am informed, the financial performance was also improved during the 2023 fiscal year, with turnover reaching 17 million euros compared to 14.61 million euros in 2022, and pre-tax profits multiplying to 3.65 million euros from 689,625 euros in the previous year. Additionally, within 2024, the company repurchased its properties and fully paid off the creditor through the capitalization of the related obligation. Thus, a debt write-off of a total of 20.18 million euros was achieved, alongside an equal increase in share capital, and the properties were returned to the company’s ownership after the leaseback contract expired. It should be noted that the properties had been transferred to Probank Financial Leasing (and later to National Bank) from 2006 until 2033. Now, moving on to the new companies formed on November 28, reflecting in some way the developments after the strategic agreement with the Inspired Education Group. Two of these, named “Red II M.A.E.” and “Red III M.A.E.,” were established by the children of Christos Geitona, Zoí Geitona and Christos Geitona. These are holding companies, providing business consulting and real estate management. Each has an initial share capital of 2,580,000 euros, which corresponds to 5,000 euros in cash and 2,575,000 euros in contributions in kind. In one, the head and sole shareholder is Christos Geitona with Zoí Geitona as vice president, and in the other, the head is Zoí Geitona, with Christos Geitona as vice president, while Maria Geitona is a member of the board of both. The day before, on November 27, “Inspired Education Greece” was also established, the domestic arm of the Inspired Education Group, which will handle the group’s investment activities in Greece, with Anthony Morisson Leitao as chairman of the board, Nuno Filipe Goncalves Bugarim as deputy chairman, and Antonis Tambakos as CEO.
Return to Normality
Anyway, after all these developments, and essentially after the deal with Inspired Education Group, the management of Kostea-Geitona Schools notes in its 2023 results report the return to “economic normalcy” rhythms. As mentioned, in the current academic year (2024-2025), the student population stands at 2,005 (compared to 1,976 in the previous year), marking an increase of 1.5% (3% in the previous corresponding period). “This increase is expected to lead to a corresponding rise in both revenues and profits,” as the management estimates, and “thus, it is believed that gradual financial recovery of the net position will be achieved.” The total liabilities stand at €22.84 million — with the company having zeroed out short-term bank loans for the fiscal year — while the equity now shows a positive €2.93 million, compared to €0.128 million in 2022, “presenting a significantly improved picture.”
Construction Works Begin (After 6 Years) at Chios Marina
The tender was held in 2018. The selection of the contractor was made in 2019, and the concession agreement was signed then. Permits, studies, environmental protections, etc., were completed a few weeks ago. Yesterday afternoon, the commencement of works on the first marina concession project by TAIPED was signed in Chios. The project had been awarded to the TEFA Group (Giannis and Ilia Tefa) in collaboration with the Tsakos Group. Eventually, Nikos Tsakos’ stake was acquired by the Tefa family, and yesterday the contract for the start of construction at Chios Marina was signed. The Tefa Group already manages two marinas (in Preveza and Aktio) and aims to have the Chios Marina operational by the end of 2026. A local construction company (Zeniodis-Pikounis) was chosen for the construction to ensure added value for the local community as well as quality. The marina construction is connected to the planned completion of the airport and other projects, such as the master plan for the port and the upgrade of the coastal zone.
Criminal Charges by Prosecutor Against Bluehouse Capital Executives
The lawsuit was filed — by their former partner — in November 2022. Two years later, yesterday, Prosecutor Angeliki Triantafyllou pressed criminal charges against the co-founders of Bluehouse Capital, Viktor Pizante and Babis Pandis, as well as the company’s legal advisor, on charges of repeated fraud as a felony and embezzlement as a felony, following the lawsuit by the company’s co-founder Giannis Delikanakis. Bloomberg had extensively covered the case, revealing Bluehouse Investment’s attempt in 2020 to oust Giannis Delikanakis, taking advantage of the fact that he had fallen into a coma due to Covid, while a dispute had already arisen between him and his partners regarding the valuation of a fund. Bluehouse is accused of attempting to deceive investors by “inflating” the value of its assets and refusing to return cash to investors. After the prosecutor’s criminal charges, the case will now be handled by the investigating judge, and decisions are also awaited on three more charges relating to fraud, forgery, and complicity in bribing a banker with criminal negligence, stemming from a lawsuit by an investor and a German bank. The legal dispute between Delikanakis and Pizante-Pandis has been ongoing for the past few years, with several judicial episodes, and the Pizante-Pandis side claims that Delikanakis’ accusations (the son-in-law of Steggou) are unfounded and false. Now, however, with the charges filed, it’s time for the differences to be resolved in the investigative offices and courtrooms.
The Stock Exchange Will Wait for Attica Department Stores
After a long time, we saw the listing of a bank (Bank of Cyprus) and an infrastructure company (DIA) on the stock exchange. Will we see retail store shares 18 years after the delisting of Notos Com? The subject here is “Attica Department Stores,” the leader in the domestic retail clothing and footwear market, which has belonged to Ideal Holdings since last year, having paid €100 million for its acquisition. The CEO of “Attica Department Stores,” Dimosthenis Boumis, was asked in an informational meeting about such an eventuality and directly referred to Ideal, stating that it is a matter for the shareholder. Ideal Holdings, of course, would be interested in expanding the investment it has made, but sources close to the holding’s management indicate that the possibility of an IPO has not been examined. The same applies to the potential for expansion outside Greece. On the other hand, within Greece, there are leasing agreements for spaces in the new large shopping centers being developed by Lamda Development, which remains to be seen if and when they will be implemented. Thus, for the time being, “Attica Department Stores” will continue to implement its investment plan, amounting to €45 million for the period 2021-2027. For the next three years (2025-2027), investments of €15 million are planned for the introduction of new brands, store renovations, new services, and technological infrastructure. As for 2024, revenues and profits are above last year’s, with retail sales in the first ten months reaching €180 million (+10%), and EBITDA at €19.2 million (+15.7% compared to the same period in 2023). Sales in 2023 had reached €227 million.
Investor from the Bank of Epirus Appears at the Bank of Greece
We’ve previously written about an investment proposal submitted to the Board of Directors of the Cooperative Bank of Epirus by an “anonymous” investor who wanted to double its share capital and lead it to obtain a national license and expand beyond the Epirus region. The investor’s name remains carefully shielded from the public eye, but it has become known that the “mysterious investor” approached the relevant services of the Bank of Greece to obtain approval for his plans and simultaneously secure the “fit & proper” status for his participation in the Bank of Epirus. Currently, the equity of the Bank of Epirus stands at €27.5 million. Therefore, the €30 million the investor intends to inject via a capital increase would alter the bank’s dynamics. However, he insists that his identity remains undisclosed until he receives the “fit & proper” status. Although the approach is rather unusual, the interest and the reason we are mentioning it again is that reliable sources from the Bank of Greece confirm the investor’s approach, describing him as a “foreign investor of Greek descent” who is evaluated as “serious.” The Bank of Epirus has cleaned up its balance sheet and holds a 10% market share in the local market.
Window Dressing Ahead of London
Ecstatic about the record trading volume of €1.72 billion yesterday, the General Index remained still. It watched indifferently as banks faced mild selling pressures and Motor Oil responded to the pressures of recent days, awaiting the first tranche of €50 million from the insurance compensation it is entitled to following the fire on September 17. Without instructions from New York and with Europe focused on the political situation in France, activity on the Athens Stock Exchange was not very lively. Worth noting is the yield on the 10-year French government bond at 2.96%, while the corresponding Greek bond stands at 2.95%. The share of “Eleftherios Venizelos” impressed yesterday with a +1.34% rise as the goal is to go to London and present itself as one of the success stories of the Greek Capital Market, at least achieving its initial listing price (€8.20). Similarly, Cenergy wants to face analysts in London with a price close to €9, which is why it closed yesterday at €8.68 (+0.93%). The same goal will be pursued today by the 37 stocks participating in Morgan Stanley’s roadshow, trying to boost their valuations to levels that justify the positive financial results they will present. Logically, without competition from foreign stock exchanges, their target will be achieved.
The Bubble That Shines…
Yesterday, when U.S. stock markets were closed, nearly half of households (48%) had the opportunity to take stock of their positions on Wall Street. Everyone feels wealthier and more successful. The market capitalization of the stocks making up the S&P 500 index has surpassed $50 trillion. This corresponds to 46% of global GDP. Fifteen years ago, the capitalization ratio of the S&P 500 to global GDP did not exceed 11%. During the great tech stock bubble (dot.com) of 2000 — even then — the ratio of S&P 500 capitalization to global GDP did not exceed 39%. Today, Wall Street stocks are worth as much as 205% of U.S. GDP. Based on projections for 2025 and beyond, the price of the 10 top stocks in the S&P 500 corresponds to 30 times future earnings. Through this shiny stock market bubble, Americans have improved their purchasing power and coped with unprecedented inflation. The question is, “for how long?”
