The 23 MPs Preparing for Transfers and the Independent Holding His Cards Close

A new parliamentary landscape is taking shape due to the successive splits in SYRIZA—Progressive Alliance, coupled with broader political fluidity. As of now, 23 MPs who were elected in the 2023 national elections have left the parties that got them elected, seeking… greener pastures, meaning a new political home, with their re-election being the ultimate prize.

Having reached a historic high, the number of independent MPs is steadily growing. These independents are casting furtive glances both toward existing power parties and toward the possibility of organizing themselves into an autonomous Parliamentary Group.

In any case, these lone MPs predict their numbers will multiply, unless a sudden reshuffling within existing Parliamentary Groups—essentially transfers in motion—overtakes them.

Between PASOK and KKE

The centrifugal trends towards the group of independent MPs were predominantly sparked by the successive splits in SYRIZA—Progressive Alliance. These splits have given rise to at least five parties in the political space between PASOK and KKE.

First came Popular Unity under Panagiotis Lafazanis and MeRA25 led by Yanis Varoufakis. They were followed by Freedom Sailing, Petros Kokkalis’ Cosmos, and finally the Democracy Movement under Stefanos Kasselakis.

The founding declaration of the latter was signed by four MPs who recently declared independence from SYRIZA-PA: Theodora Tzakri, Kyriaki Malama, Giota Poulou, and Alexandros Avlonitis.

Apart from Ms. Tzakri, the other founding members of the Democracy Movement and Kilkis MP Petros Pappas were the first to exit the SYRIZA headquarters after the party’s stormy emergency congress, which culminated in the definitive departure of Stefanos Kasselakis and the loss of SYRIZA’s status as the official opposition.

The departure of former SYRIZA-PA leader Stefanos Kasselakis coincided almost exactly with the resignation of four MPs from SYRIZA’s Parliamentary Group. These MPs had been elected in three-seat constituencies and likely deemed their re-election under the SYRIZA banner improbable.

This is because, to secure a place in the next Parliament, their new party must finish first or second, or, at worst, they must align with one of the top three parties in their constituency if each party is allocated one seat.

Closing Ranks

In Halkidiki, Kyriaki Malama was comfortably re-elected as a SYRIZA-PA MP. However, a significant player in the region is PASOK MP Apostolos Pappas, which complicates any potential internal transfer.

Moreover, for many remaining SYRIZA members, Malama’s leap to Kasselakis’ camp remains baffling. She belonged to the left wing of “unified SYRIZA” and was among the first to express discontent with the “nausea” felt when Kasselakis invited the Parliamentary Group to his mansion in Spetses last January. Rumor has it that this was where Kasselakis’ personal relationship with the Halkidiki MP was forged.

Experienced in elections as a former mayor of Esperion in Corfu, the “PASOK-affiliated” Alexandros Avlonitis would struggle to find re-election pathways in the Isle of the Phaeacians with either ND or PASOK. Meanwhile, Rallia Christidou would face stiff SYRIZA competition in the Southern Sector if she stayed with a party likely to earn fewer votes in the next election. She barely scraped into Parliament in 2023, finishing behind Nikos Pappas, who maintains strong local influence.

Independent and Alone

Conversely, after leaving SYRIZA-PA, Kilkis MP Petros Pappas remains independent yet alone. Elected for the first time in 2023, Pappas won in a constituency far from his true preferences.

Living and operating in Thessaloniki, Mr. Pappas has recently focused on raising issues in Thessaloniki’s first electoral district, hinting at his desire to be included in its electoral list in the future—a non-negotiable condition for any potential political transfer.

This is particularly relevant as PASOK has not outright rejected the possibility of including him on its ballots in the future, which has led Mr. Pappas to keep a safe distance from the new Kasselakis-led party headquarters in Tavros.

Some suggest that Pappas’ current cautious stance toward Kasselakis stems from his aspiration to run in Thessaloniki. Rumors also suggested that Theodora Tzakri might consider running there, despite Rania Thrasia already holding a seat in the constituency and allegedly being a close ally of Kasselakis.

Despite the speculation, Mr. Pappas reportedly has no immediate plans to reveal his intentions. Even if he decides to run in Thessaloniki, he would likely face no significant obstacles initially, especially if Tzakri opts for the Democracy Movement’s national ballot or another region, given her high public profile.

Her constant presence alongside Mr. Kasselakis from the very beginning fueled rumors that she might take the helm of the new Parliamentary Group, should the Democracy Movement form its own group in Parliament.

However, Michalis Chourdakis, an independent MP formerly of Freedom Sailing, also reportedly expressed interest in leading the Parliamentary Group of the Democracy Movement during a meeting with the party’s president, Stefanos Kasselakis. Despite their discussions, no “white smoke” emerged.

If the eight MPs who recently left SYRIZA-PS rally under the Democracy Movement’s banner, only two more seats would be needed for the group to gain parliamentary representation.

Should Michalis Chourdakis and Areti Papaioannou, both independent after leaving Freedom Sailing, succumb to the overtures of Stefanos Kasselakis, the Democracy Movement would automatically secure a foothold in parliamentary affairs.

Kasselakis Group

Forming a Parliamentary Group remains a strategic goal for Kasselakis. Last week, MPs Alexandros Avlonitis, Kyriaki Malama, Petros Pappas, Giota Poulou, Theodora Tzakri, and Rallia Christidou jointly signed a statement, heightening speculation that they might collectively move to the Democracy Movement in the near future.

In their statement, the six MPs declared that “parliamentary seats belong solely to Democracy,” decrying “unethical attacks” on “independent MPs who left SYRIZA-PS.”

“We stand by our two colleagues, urging them to remain steadfast against any political intimidation, as we ourselves endured the same from a party that veered off its democratic course,” concluded the six independent MPs, known as kasselistas, while implicitly referencing Yiannis Sarakiotis and retired Admiral Evangelos Apostolakis, who noisily closed the door on Koumoundourou behind them.

Although Yiannis Sarakiotis had a private meeting with SYRIZA-PS’s new leader, Sokratis Famellos, after the latter’s election, reports suggest that local party officials and authorities in Fthiotida heavily influenced his final decision.

Rumors abound that his potential defection became a topic even in local ecclesiastical circles, culminating in his decision to accompany Stefanos Kasselakis to Gorgopotamos. He abstained from voting in SYRIZA-PS’s leadership election, a move coinciding with mass resignations from the party’s local organizations.

The Admiral’s Departure

The departure of Evangelos Apostolakis stirred greater controversy. Elected as the second candidate on SYRIZA’s State ballot, Apostolakis reportedly awaited a signal from former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras before jumping ship.

Though Apostolakis proactively called Tsipras, the latter emphasized that the seat belonged to the party. Yet, this did not prevent the “mutiny,” as the admiral voluntarily “retired” from SYRIZA, announcing his independence while ignoring unanswered calls from Koumoundourou and Famellos.

In a striking turn, Apostolakis met Famellos at a political event in the Old Parliament without hinting that he would leave the party just hours later via a written statement.

The admiral’s dramatic exit rocked SYRIZA’s boat, causing internal turmoil.

Staying with SYRIZA

Despite the upheaval, the admiral’s “heroic exit” brought relief to Koumoundourou, which believes that the wave of defections to Kasselakis’s Democracy Movement has subsided. Several MPs previously aligned with the kasselistas have signaled their intention to remain with SYRIZA-PS.

In this context, Argolida MP Giorgos Gavrilis is now focused on budget discussions, while Famellos recently met Thessaloniki MP Rania Thraskeia in a reportedly positive atmosphere.

“I’m not leaving (SYRIZA),” declared B’ Piraeus MP Nina Kasimati following the internal elections. Her role in the Council of Europe was seen as pivotal in her decision to stay within SYRIZA, as membership includes MPs from Greece’s top three parliamentary parties—ND, PASOK, and SYRIZA. However, sources clarify that “such an issue was never raised.”

Signs of Reconciliation?

Famellos’s meeting with Dionysis Temponeras and his attendance at former Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias’s book launch reignited speculation about a “big SYRIZA.” Former PM Alexis Tsipras’s presence, alongside prominent party figures such as Sia Anagnostopoulou and Giorgos Stathakis, symbolized a forward-looking image, according to optimistic SYRIZA insiders.

Independent Group Formation

Outside the SYRIZA-PS rift, a large and cohesive bloc of independent MPs remains. These MPs, spanning from the Right to the Far-Right, are reportedly exploring the creation of an independent parliamentary group, with figures like Pavlos Sarakis and Haris Katsivardas leading discussions.

Mihalis Gavgiotakis and Giorgos Aspiotis have already founded the National Rally, aiming to provide a home for politically unaligned MPs, excluding hardline Spartans like Giorgos Manousos.

As conservatism rises globally, Aphrodite Latinopoulou’s Voice of Reason has emerged as a potential ally for independent MPs. Even former ND ministers like Marios Salmas remain politically “homeless.”

Former minister Lefteris Avgenakis is rumored to be rejoining the ruling party, while independent MP Athina Linou, originally from SYRIZA-PS, appears open to reconciliation. Her ties with Famellos could be blocked by Pavlos Polakis’s potential veto, while she continues to express admiration for PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis.

The presence of a former Prime Minister and leader of New Democracy, specifically Antonis Samaras, among the 23 current independent MPs highlights the pivotal role they are expected to play during the remainder of this parliamentary term, especially given the particularly fragile balances within parties positioned to the right of New Democracy.

The most cohesive of all appears to be the Parliamentary Group of the Greek Solution, led by Kyriakos Velopoulos. However, the first signs of discord have emerged within the Niki party during its conference, as internal disputes involving Nikos Papadopoulos, Giorgos Apostolakis, and Nikos Vrettos have marginally affected the party’s president, Dimitris Natsios.

As for the Spartans, their parliamentary survival as a cohesive group seems precarious, as they are currently at the minimum threshold of five MPs. Thus, even a single defection would lead to their dissolution.