Three major fronts concerning the fight against tax evasion, the absorption of the Recovery Fund and the new ratings of the country’s creditworthiness by foreign agencies will decide the Greek economy‘s stakes for 2025. The first half of the year will be decisive on all three fronts, according to the Finance Ministry’s planning.

During this period, a series of important new regulations for the expansion of electronic transactions and further digitization of tax inspections will be “run”, the 6th request for 5 billion euros from the Recovery Fund will be submitted, which requires the implementation of important reforms, while from March the ratings of the Greek economy by foreign agencies will begin, from which the economic staff expects new upgrades of the country’s credit rating.

Tax Evasion

On the tax evasion front, 2024 passes the baton with good news in 2025. According to the data so far, revenues from the fight against tax evasion will exceed 2 billion euros this year. Thus, the target to reach an annual tax evasion revenue of EUR 2.5 billion is considered within reach by 2025, expanding, in this case, the fiscal space for new tax cuts focusing on the middle class and socially oriented policies, as the government has previously announced. Final data on the revenue and expenditure path for 2024 are expected to be announced at the end of April, on the basis of which the primary surplus of this year’s budget will be formed. Current estimates raise the amount above the initial forecast of 2.5% of GDP to near the 3% level.

Evaluations

The first ratings of the Greek economy by foreign agencies will begin in early March, while 2024 will close with the upgrade of the country’s credit rating to a higher investment grade position by SCOPE. The “dance” of ratings will be opened on March 7 by the Canadian DBRS, which had upgraded the economy’s outlook from “stable” to “positive” in September. This will be followed a week later, on 14 March, by Moody’s, which upgraded the outlook for the Greek economy from “stable” to “positive” in September. On 18 April it will be Standard & Poor’s turn to announce its own rating. The finance ministry expects 2025 to be a year of new upgrades, due to the continuation of the economy’s strong growth performance, the smooth absorption of the Recovery Fund and the reforms it entails, as well as the high primary surpluses recorded by the budget.

Recovery Fund

By early next summer Greece is expected to submit a new request for the 6th tranche of the Recovery Fund. This is for an amount of €5 billion, while together with the 7th tranche scheduled for autumn Greece is expected to receive a total of €9.8 billion. Each tranche is accompanied by specific milestones that the country must meet including important reforms. That is why their implementation is a key priority for the economic staff for 2025.