Greetings, let’s catch up again—heading towards the second break of the Christmas holidays—wishing everyone a Happy New Year filled with health, happiness, and success for all without exception. After all, when you wish well for everyone, it usually comes back to you (or so I believe). Anyway, if you listen to everything being said across the Atlantic about 2025, well, brace yourselves… The American businessmen and fund managers, some of whom are circulating here in Athens, speak of an extraordinary year ahead if Trump actually accomplishes even half of what he promises, “especially in the economic sector and primarily if he places people with actual work experience, not theorists who nearly turned America into…Europe,” my investment source told me. Well, let’s hope all the good things happen, provided they work well for Greece too.

M.M. on New Year’s…

Now, since K.M. didn’t go to the mountains or Crete for New Year’s and returned instead, he took the opportunity to hold meetings at M.M. yesterday. I hear that one of the meetings held in the afternoon was about party matters, as 2025 will be a conference year for the ruling party. Additionally, there will be internal party elections for local and regional organizations of the ND, as well as for delegates. All these processes will take place after the presidential election, so after mid-February, while the conference will likely be held after Easter and before summer—probably in May.

The ND candidacies

While 2025 won’t be an election year, many government and party officials from ND will begin working more systematically on their candidacies. For this reason, yesterday, Pavlos Marinakis was announced for the northern sector, Nikos Romanos for the southern sector, and Irini Agapidaki for the western sector of Athens’ Second District. These decisions had been made some time ago, but the announcement was finalized yesterday at noon. In the northern sector, there are likely to be interesting reshuffles, as it is rumored that Theodoros Roussopoulos, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, might not run again. In the southern sector, the name of communications strategist Thomas Varvitsiotis is strongly considered, while party general director Yiannis Smyrlis is set to test his chances in the eastern Attica region. Finally, decisions are awaited from other non-parliamentarians like Thanasis Kontogeorgis and Alexandra Sdoukou on whether they will run with a preference vote.

PASOK’s choices

Top PASOK officials are also called to choose constituencies now that the time has come. Starting with the state list, Dimitris Mantzos, who initially preferred the Athens First District, is seriously considering the northern sector, where, if the party comes in second, it will undoubtedly gain another MP. On the other hand, Panagiotis Doudonis, originally from Mesotopos, Lesvos, is contemplating running in Lesvos, a three-seat district where PASOK consistently secures a seat. Currently, the local doctor Paraskevaidis holds it.

With Citi in London

Outreach, presentations, and analysis. These are what banks are prioritizing to safeguard and enhance their share prices against surprises 2025 may bring. In this context, at least some Greek banks will travel to London for Citi’s investment roadshow on January 8 and 9, a conference that, in different times, might not have been their first choice. However, banks now feel they cannot afford the luxury of picking and choosing; they are determined to step forward and seize every opportunity for roadshows, presentations, etc., that could give them an investment edge. Attention will also focus on analysts’ questionnaires to identify which topics are on the agenda for 2025.

The omens for the Stock Exchange in 2025

Since we are wrapping up a good year for the Stock Exchange, let me mention that the omens for 2025, at least regarding the Athens Exchange, are positive. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and the unpredictable Trump factor, which understandably cause concern, foreign interest remains strong. To give an example, the roadshow in Paris organized annually by Piraeus Securities hosted 115 meetings in 2024 between foreign institutional investors and participating listed companies, a significantly higher figure than in 2023. This year, 150 meetings are already scheduled, and the number continues to grow, with about a month left until the event.

Is retail “slipping”?

And since we’ve delved into predictions for 2025, allow me to mention something that is far from a prediction and does not bode well for the coming year. I don’t know how the holiday season went, which traditionally accounts for a significant part of annual turnover, but large retail chains (not including supermarkets) are reporting reduced sales of 10% at best and up to 30% in some cases. Whatever they gained in the first and second quarters of the year was lost in the third and fourth quarters. Whether Black Friday and holiday sales managed to save the day will soon become clear, though the current outlook leaves little room for optimism.

Taking positions for “My Home 2”

On January 15, the “My Home 2” program launches with improved specifications and conditions that have significantly expanded the pool of eligible beneficiaries. With the goal of maintaining high revenue levels in 2025 and the challenge of boosting credit expansion, banks are taking positions, as all aim to capture a share of the retail clientele the new “My Home” program will generate. Preparatory work in branch networks has already begun, with each bank striving to secure the lion’s share of the program.

The Czech’s deal

Discussions had begun about six months ago, became known to part of the market at some point, and ultimately the deal was finalized. Karel Komárek’s Allwyn is acquiring 51% of Rodolfo Othoní’s Novibet in a deal with an initial acquisition price of 217 million euros, which can be described as win-win for specific reasons. Primarily, through the deal, Allwyn (formerly Sazka) gains access to the technology developed by Novibet as an online provider of sports betting and internet gambling. In this particular market, proprietary technological platforms are critically important and can distinguish providers from one another. With this agreement, Allwyn secures this advantage, enhancing its capabilities and portfolio, with the next step being entry into new markets and countries. On the other hand, Novibet, which had reached a certain point in geographic and technological growth, moves to the next stage, gaining a shareholder with significant capital resources and plans for extensive synergies, while the entrepreneur achieves a long-sought deal.

ADMIE’s push into the data sector and the challenge from a major energy company!

The market’s attention has been piqued, as I hear, by ADMIE’s decision to invest in data centers through the Gemini joint venture and the international company Servefarm. The operator appears determined to leverage the current trend for “data factories” and its proprietary facilities in Attica at a time when electrical capacity is golden. Reportedly, ADMIE requested and received connection terms two years ago (from itself) for constructing a substation in northeast Attica (near the Agios Stefanos HV Substation) with a maximum capacity of 130 MW. These terms were revised last October. However, the plans of Mr. Manos Manousakis, who remains at ADMIE’s helm until 2028 and has begun rolling out the vision for his new term, are not viewed favorably by other major energy groups, who are also drawn to the allure of data. Don’t be surprised if initiatives opposing the operator’s plans arise. Reportedly, a major energy company has already approached the Regulatory Authority for Energy to gain full insight into what ADMIE is adding to the “data wagon.” And let me not hide the fact that some points of discussion have already raised red flags, and reactions are expected.

Lamda and the malls

The management of Lamda remains unwavering regarding the malls, according to reports. There is no reason for an IPO for Lamda Malls while markets continue to value shopping centers at a discount due to international issues affecting them. Hence, it is likely that the IPO will not take place in 2025 either. Consequently, there are no plans for placements by Lamda.

The “new tricks” and the fines

The recent fines announced a few days ago by the Ministry of Development for violations of the “maximum profit margin” law have their own backstory. Many of the penalized companies had previously been found guilty of unlawful price increases. They would typically adjust their prices upward at the beginning of the year and, when inspections occurred at the end of the fiscal year, issue credit invoices to correct the prices. This time, the Ministry of Development acted differently. Inspections were conducted unexpectedly on first-quarter invoices before any “corrective actions” could be made. For this reason, the imposed fines were calculated under the previous legal framework, prior to the announcement of their tripling. The violators expected inspections at year’s end but were caught off guard by auditors comparing first-quarter invoices. Using the same method, other companies ignoring the profit margin law are expected to be revealed.

Tourism at the extremes boosts Aegean

Interesting findings about the shaping of the tourist season are recorded in Bank of Greece data. Increased revenues are noted at the edges of the season (April-October), signaling a shift in travel habits and a boost in arrivals during these months. This directly benefits Aegean, as it alleviates congestion during the July-August period (more rational distribution) and extends the season to a ten-month span. In this context, the management is adding new destinations (Erbil, Baku initially), strengthening routes, e.g., to and from Istanbul, as well as to key cities (London, Madrid, Paris, Rome, etc.). Starting February 13, Las Palmas/Canary Islands (the network’s longest route, with a flight duration of 5.5 hours) will also be included. Additionally, management prioritizes launching routes to India (Delhi) by 2026 with the delivery of four specially configured Airbus A321neo aircraft capable of covering distances to/from Central Africa, the Gulf, and other regions.

Attica and Pancretan officially join Hercules 3

On 30/12, with the issuance of the relevant SIC codes, the integration of Attica and Pancretan into Hercules 3 was finalized, and state guarantees were granted. Consequently, the fifth banking pillar, with Thrivest as a shareholder, after the capital increase and Hercules 3, was fully cleaned up before the end of 2025, as announced by CEO E. Vrettou. It enters the new year with a completely different profile.

The “deregulation” movement found its hero

The new global trend in markets is not what we schematically and oversimplistically call a “right turn.” It is more of a collective reaction to the “over-regulation” of markets and societies and an attempt at “deregulation,” as announced by Trump and already being implemented by Javier Gerardo Milei, who completes one year as President of Argentina. The well-known photo of the disheveled Milei holding a chainsaw, with the slogan “No hay plata” (There is no money), akin to “money doesn’t grow on trees” in our language, has influenced many politicians in Europe and America. From Davos last year to Washington today, everyone is watching the “Milei experiment” in Argentina with great interest. Christian Lindner, the German head of the FDP, is launching his campaign by stating that Germany needs more Milei-like policies. Elon Musk is spearheading the DODGE (Department of Government Efficiency) program to drastically cut state spending in the U.S. Since taking office, Milei has eliminated 672 regulations in key sectors such as housing, energy, transportation, and agriculture, averaging nearly two reforms per day. The abolition of import licensing processes has reduced household appliance prices by 35% and clothing prices by 20%. The lifting of rent controls tripled the rental supply in Buenos Aires, cutting prices by nearly 50%. Yerba mate, a staple tea product in Argentina, saw a 25% price drop following its price liberalization. Milei’s reforms extend to infrastructure and competition: Argentina adopted “open skies” policies, dismantled state airline monopolies, and welcomed Starlink and Amazon, which have entered Argentina’s internet market with vigor.

Trump, mercantilism and inflation

Mercantilism was an old doctrine in economic theory, now considered obsolete. Simply put, mercantilism held that the best way to ensure a nation’s prosperity was to import little and export a lot, thereby creating a net inflow of foreign currency and maximizing gold reserves. Spectacular advances in technology, communication, and transportation essentially killed mercantilism. However, Trump seems to be reviving this doctrine. The U.S. currently imports $3 trillion worth of goods annually. Imposing a 100% tariff on all countries in the BRICS or potential BRICS members would have enormous repercussions. One might initially assume increased revenue for the U.S. government. However, it is certain that thousands of imports would cease, trade transactions would be disrupted, and countless products would become more expensive. Deutsche Bank estimated that the Consumer Price Index could rise by over 140 basis points due to tariffs, and economic uncertainty would naturally drive bond yields higher. This is one of the reasons for the dramatic rise in gold prices.