The world in which the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, will be called upon to lead and answer is a very different world from the one he “delivered” eight years back. The new US President will even have by far a harder task than his predecessor, Joe Biden, who, although he had seen the developments on the global level, ultimately failed to “contain” Putin’s Russia and failed to do the right thing on the Middle East front as well. It should be taken for granted that Trump’s first 100 days in his second term in the White House will be among the most critical for both the US and the world.
Trudeau’s resignation in no way can be directly blamed on the change of course of the US but should also be seen as another change that comes amidst the sweeping global developments and will be a given for the US President and his staff. The Trideau’s departure – which will not officially take place before the end of March – may also be a development desired by the US President who has avowedly and openly not had the best of relations with the Prime Minister of the neighbouring country. But Canada remains a critical partner on many levels for the U.S., and Trump will give the succession a chance.
On other fronts, the Trump Administration should get to work as soon as possible as issues both at home and abroad cannot wait. Donald Trump may have made it clear that in his agenda “America First” is the basis but it is practically impossible in the current circumstances for the US President-elect not to have daily consultations on war in Ukraine and developments in the Middle East with Syria added to the frame. The challenge for the next president’s staff will be to prioritize the issues but also to convince Trump that personal relationships alone are not enough today to solve burning global problems.
The issue with Trump as he appeared eight years ago is that he has a belief that his bilateral contacts are capable of both answering and solving problems. The statements that the Ukraine war will be over in a day should be considered by him as well as already misguided and unrealistic as if he continues to believe this the world data will experience much harder times than those experienced in the last four years.
Along with the world, the people who determine part of its destiny have changed and Donald Trump should be fully prepared to accept this and more importantly to manage it. Vladimir Putin is more isolated than ever, an isolation that he and his actions have built, but this will also create problems for Trump’s US if the approach is “let’s talk business”… Today’s Russia is in no mood to take anything less than the position Putin believes his country should be in after the Cold War and from that perspective what he will ask for will be beyond extreme and unattainable. On the flip side, Trump’s US, which has “learned” in his previous term to talk face to face even with Kim Jong-un may quickly escalate if its leader realizes that the one opposite him is encroaching on his own “primacy.”
The US President will face the same issues as his friend and longtime partner Benjamin Netanyahu. “Bibi” will not accept anything less than what he has won by war for almost two years and, more importantly, will veto any attempt by Ankara to completely control the situation in Syria. It is worth pointing out that even the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon is hanging by a thread while there is no light for the Gaza Strip and this is no coincidence. Iran also remains an open-and-shut case and one that Trump has openly stated he needs to radically change
Donald Trump may have made it clear that war kills business and the economy, but it is not at all unlikely today that he realizes that there may be no alternative. The man who with – justifiable at this level – boastfully said during the election that no wars were started in his day may be forced in his term to start many more than the Democrats of Biden and Obama combined…
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