– Hello, so the Emperor has sworn in, Ave Imperator, in Latin, and let’s hope that the continuation of the legendary gladiatorial salute to Caesar before battle (Ave Imperator morituri te salutant, meaning “Hail, Emperor, those about to die salute you…”) will not hold true for all of us mere mortals. The ceremony was glamorous, filled with oligarchs (or monsters, according to The New York Times, depending on your perspective), global political and other prominent figures, as is customary for every inauguration of the President of the United States. There is, of course, a stark difference from Trump’s first-term inauguration; now, we’re talking about universal acceptance—dare I say welcome and even submission—of everyone, particularly the US establishment, to the once-controversial businessman.

The Greeks

– So now…let me quickly brush past the A-class Greek guests of Trump’s celebratory events because they’re not fun or spirited—not the people themselves, may they always be well, but the rest and especially the one and only Panos (or…Banos to the insiders) Kammenos, who was absolutely the star yesterday. Now, as for the serious ones, I mentioned them yesterday—Kyriakou and Papalekas, who are the “Athens Greeks” in attendance. But I’ll also add two more from the diaspora: the well-known John Catsimatidis and the less familiar to us John Georges, or Yiannis Giorgis, a major publisher in Louisiana but also a businessman, because, as we know, you don’t make money from publishing.

Panos…

– Without a doubt, as I said, Panos Kammenos stole the show, and we didn’t even have to look for him—he presented himself on social media, looking more dazzling than ever. His hair, thick and fine, semi-blonde and trendily cut (perhaps slightly transplanted?), his teeth shiny and horse-like in size, and his overall appearance impeccably polished. His wife, Julia, was equally flawless in her attire, with an impressive décolleté that outshone even that of our new ambassador Kimberley—“well, of course,” as Hadzichristos used to say.

Trump Tower

– Back to serious matters now, always in relation to Trump. I had mentioned that his company, or, in any case, a representative thereof, the “Trump Tower,” is interested in acquiring one of the towers in Elliniko. I hear that there will be a meeting in Athens about this within the week, and I’ll update you when I have more news.

“Shipwreck” at Davos, awaiting Munich

– Two major global events are not quite thriving these days. I’m referring to the World Economic Forum in Davos, which coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration and couldn’t attract big names and world-class leaders. There’s also a similar risk for the Munich Security Conference, starting on February 14, with the level of American representation still uncertain—in previous years, Kamala Harris and several senators attended, and even the new vice president Vance made an appearance. Developments in the US have delayed panel arrangements—K.M. plans a one-day trip to Munich on the 14th, depending, of course, on developments.

Collaboration bearing fruit…

– I imagine you saw yesterday’s new poll by Alco, which shows the gap between ND and PASOK widening to 12 points—that is, the ruling party gained 2.5%, while the green opposition of our leader Nikos lost 1.5%. So, what do you imagine? That people suddenly fell back in love with the government, or did they see what’s going on over there at Harilaou Trikoupi with the Famelo-Varoufakis-Kasselakis crew and decided to bail? Perhaps Tasoulas helped consolidate the blue party’s support a bit, but I think it’s minor. And now, the joint appearance (the day after tomorrow) at an anti-Mitsotakis book event of Geroulanos with Gerovasili and Achtsioglou will seal the deal!

In Athens, the heads of SSM and SRB

– The latest on the visit to Athens by SSM head Claudia Buch on February 25 and 26 is twofold. First, the visit is to the supervisory authority, the Bank of Greece, which will play a key role. Second, Ms. Buch is not coming alone—she will be accompanied by the President of the SRB, Dominique Laboureix. Their meetings will primarily be with national supervisory authorities, meaning the Bank of Greece. They’ll also meet with supervisors in joint teams and have discussions with bank administrations.

They will pass with ease

– The macroeconomic scenarios under which European banks will undergo stress tests have been announced, and Greek banks have welcomed them with satisfaction and the sense that they will pass the test with ease. Greece is presented as the country with the best adverse unemployment scenario compared to the EU over a three-year period, while the country’s growth conditions are similar to those projected for the EU average. Finally, regarding real estate, Greece faces a worse scenario for residential properties but the same as the European average for commercial properties. All these measurements mainly take into account the starting point of each country.

It’s a lot of money

– Yesterday, we wrote about discussions Vivartia and CVC are having with investors regarding the sale of Hellenic Dough. The negotiations are undoubtedly underway, but they do not appear to be easy to conclude. This is because the sellers are asking for 10 to 12 times the EBITDA of Hellenic Dough, which was €25 million in 2024, and Vivartia projects it will reach €28 million this year. Hellenic Dough is building significant activity abroad, its prospects are excellent, but the price of €250–270 million is equally significant.

The return of the Sawiris family and the investment invasion in real estate

– The powerful Sawiris family appears to be preparing for a new investment invasion in Greece. We are more familiar with the Egyptian millionaire Naguib Sawiris, who once owned Telestet and later engaged in a spree of villa acquisitions in Mykonos and grand celebrations on the “Island of the Winds.” However, the latest news concerns his equally business-savvy brother, Samih Sawiris, former executive chairman and CEO of Orascom Development Holding AG, who has been a Montenegrin citizen since 2011. He and others founded the company “Piraeus 1 Private Company” on January 20, with headquarters on Sarantaporou Street in Piraeus, an initial share capital of €7 million, and activities focusing on real estate transactions and construction work for residential buildings. In other words, he is betting on the Greek real estate market, where he obviously sees great potential. The €7 million share capital is divided into 140,000 corporate shares with a nominal value of €50 each. Based on the contributions, Samih Sawiris controls 37.5%, while the remainder is controlled by three holding companies. MHB Investments Hellas, established in October 2023, has a share capital of €3.71 million and controls 37.5% of Piraeus 1 Private Company. MB Capital, established in January 2024, has a share capital of €970,000 and controls 10%. AHO Holding Hellas, established in November 2023, has a share capital of €2.22 million and controls 15%. All three companies are headquartered at the same address on Lepenaiotou Street in Athens. The first two have shareholders from the Barakat family, while Mohamed Hazem Barakat is the manager of Piraeus 1 Private Company. Here too, we are talking about a particularly powerful Egyptian businessman, president of Madinet Masr, one of Egypt’s largest real estate players, with awards such as “Best Performing Real Estate Company in Egypt 2024” and “Most Innovative Urban Developer in Egypt 2024.” The sole partner and manager of the third company is another Egyptian businessman, Ahmed Omar. Should we assume that after “Piraeus 1,” there might also be a “Piraeus 2”? It’s not out of the question.

The rise of PPC (by Goldman Sachs and AXIA)

– Goldman Sachs, in a report on PPC, notes that the company is gradually transforming into a power producer with diversified activities that will lead to multiple expansions. It highlights the existence of some protection against energy price fluctuations due to vertical integration and identifies encouraging signs in PPC’s transition plan and the gradual phase-out of lignite. For these reasons, Goldman Sachs upgrades the stock to a buy (from neutral) with a 12-month price target of €15.5. AXIA, for its part, sees strong growth for PPC’s figures despite environmental challenges. It forecasts EBITDA of €1.82 billion, net income of €358.2 million, and a PE of 12.9 for 2024. AXIA sets a price target of €22.60, which is 81% higher than the current trading levels of the stock.

The sales of Motor Oil brought €4.5 million to the coffers

– The Group sold two blocks of Motor Oil shares originating from share buyback programs. The first involved 250,000 shares that changed hands at an average selling price of €20.95 per share. These shares had been acquired under the share buyback program approved in 2020 at an average purchase price of €13.52 per share. Subsequently, another sale was made through Piraeus AEPEY, this time of 550,000 own shares with an average acquisition cost of €15.99 per share. The share block changed hands almost immediately for €11.47 million (average selling price of €20.854 per share). In the market, there were estimates that some of the sales are related to intra-family transactions; however, brokers report that buyers were foreign portfolios. Overall, from the two blocks, MOH is estimated to have recorded a net capital gain of approximately €4.5 million.

30 funds at Piraeus Securities road show

– On January 30, the Piraeus Securities road show will take place in Paris. Interest is high, and a participation record has been noted compared to the road shows of previous years. Specifically, 150 meetings with 30 different funds have been scheduled, compared to 116 meetings with 24 funds at the 2024 road show. A total of 20 listed companies are participating, including AEGEAN, AIA, ADMIE, ALPHA BANK, CENERGY, FOURLIS, HELL. ENERGY, EXAE, IDEAL, KRI-KRI, MOTOR OIL, METLEN, NATIONAL BANK, OPAP, OPTIMA, PPC, PIRAEUS BANK, SARANTIS, TITAN, and GEKTERNA.

The mega-project of Thessaloniki International Fair

– There is activity regarding the major project with a budget of €300 million for the redevelopment of the Thessaloniki International Fair (HELEXPO) area in Thessaloniki. The project will be carried out through a concession agreement, likely for 40 years. The process of hiring consultants for the tender was recently completed, and if there are no delays, the tender may be launched in the first half of the year. The maturity of implementation processes is being handled by the PPF unit of the Superfund. This is the largest urban redevelopment project in Thessaloniki’s history, and out of the 165 acres of the total plot, 100 will be transformed into a park, while the remaining area will feature new exhibition spaces, a conference center, a hotel, and more.

When the Thessaloniki Port Authority boosts the Piraeus Port Authority

– Recently, geopolitical developments, the Houthis, and the mandatory bypassing of the Suez Canal by commercial ships had put the share of the Piraeus Port Authority in a difficult position. However, the Swiss proposal for Thessaloniki Port, the investment interest demonstrated by the presence of members of the Dreyfus family in Thessaloniki, and suddenly, managers recalled that Thessaloniki Port cannot be worth less than €300 million, while Piraeus Port is valued at only €723.7 million. Despite yesterday’s rise in the stock to €28.5, the Piraeus Port Authority is currently worth 6% less than it was a week ago.

Stock market: After 165 months…

– It had been more than 165 months since the Athens General Index reached 1,530 points, while the banking index is soaring to a 9-year high. In a session that seemed procedural, waiting for the “historic speed of action” from President Trump, with Germany almost stationary and Wall Street on holiday, transactions at the stock exchange exceeded €156.7 million, with €30 million in blocks. The General Index closed at 1,530.87 points (+0.41%), completing five consecutive upward sessions but within a narrow fluctuation range. National Bank and Metlen were the protagonists in turnover and market pricing yesterday, but TITAN once again showed it belongs in another market at €43.05 (+1.77%), while PPC woke up (+1.6%) at €12.71, with Jumbo at €25.28 (+1.61%).

Volotea and the closure of its Athens base

– Volotea’s decision to close its base in Athens sparked discussions, but the airline’s flight schedule continues as usual, according to a LinkedIn post by the Spanish company, without affecting connections to and from Greece. From now on, the company will not “station” – as the industry says – an aircraft overnight in Athens. This is purely a business decision, as often made by companies in the aviation sector, and affects 40 employees for whom, according to Volotea, alternative options have been secured. The closure of the Athens base does not change the company’s commitment to the Greek market, where it maintains an active flight network, enhancing the country’s connectivity.

Cosmote vs Starlink (and God help us)

– Recently, the satellite system for providing high-speed Internet services, Starlink, owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, had made a dynamic entry into the Greek market. Its competitive advantage was that it covers areas that do not have 5G coverage by using a constellation of thousands of small satellites that are in low Earth orbit (LEO). Cosmote decided to claim this market share as well, offering COSMOTE 5G WiFi, an alternative to traditional fixed connections (DSL), as well as satellite connections, which uses wireless connection to provide fast internet to homes and businesses. The first 5G+ Network Slicing service in Greece (and in Telekom countries in Europe) competes with Starlink both in terms of quality and the final cost for the user.

The banks and the collapsing Basel III

– The Basel III Agreements are yet another tight corset that has been applied to the balance sheets of banks, with the obvious goal of creating a sufficient capital buffer against the loans they grant, so that they are able to react in the event of a serious blow. Basel III has been subtly implemented since the beginning of the month, and large European banks have already started to comply with the new rules that require large investments in IT and regulatory adjustments, along with the commitment of capital. The new American President Trump promised to abolish the Basel III regulations. The Federal Reserve announced its own plan in September to reduce Tier 1 capital requirements as part of its own Basel III regime – which was called Basel Endgame. The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve responsible for supervision, Michael Barr, who led the efforts of Basel Endgame, announced that he would resign by the end of next month to avoid disagreements between the new Trump administration and the Fed. Last Friday, in London, the Prudential Regulation Authority of the Bank of England announced that it would “delay the implementation” of Basel III rules by one year (until January 2027), “given the current uncertainty regarding the timeline for the implementation of Basel 3.1 standards in the U.S. and considering issues of competitiveness and growth.” It seems that the Basel III dream is gone.