Greetings!
Yesterday, I heard Socratis Famellos on TV (Action 24) saying that in the next elections, SYRIZA should run alongside progressive forces and PASOK, etc., to achieve some results. “It seems unlikely that PASOK or SYRIZA can defeat Mitsotakis on their own,” said the SYRIZA leader. This exchange of pleasantries and approach started about a week ago with statements from our leader Nikos A., who then tried to backtrack with little success, as the damage was already done. Every poll since shows PASOK steadily heading downhill. And don’t say that this drop has nothing to do with what’s happening and being said within PASOK. After Androulakis’ statements, a storm of reactions followed, creating chaos, with Nikos Papandreou, Diamantopoulou, etc., chiming in.

So I ask, puzzled: if all this is causing so much harm to PASOK and obviously benefits (or at least suits) SYRIZA (since Famellos keeps pushing it), why doesn’t Androulakis put an end to it? Not that it particularly concerns us, but frankly, it’s a mystery I can’t logically explain.

Tasoulas’ Foul…
The other topic from yesterday that left a (very bad) impression on me was what PASOK revealed (and rightly so) about Tasoulas. Specifically, upon his departure, he approved a €160,000 grant from Parliament to the Metropolis of Ioannina for a local nursing home, along with other “favors,” and committed €815,000 for the construction of a military history museum in Konitsa. Needless to say, Tasoulas was, until recently, an MP for Ioannina.

Regarding the larger sum of €815,000, the future President of the Republic said the decision had been made by Parliament back in 2022, and now the funds were allocated—conveniently arranged, or so he thinks. For the €160,000 allocated to the Metropolis in his area, he used the cheeky excuse, “I made the decision now that I’m no longer an MP,” along with similar tricks. In any case, we’re talking about old-school political antics, indicative of the prevailing mentality in the government that “we’re in charge, and we do whatever we want.”

We said it yesterday: the head of EOPYY, Ms. Karpodini, spouts nonsense, brushing off the fact that for five years, citizens with serious illnesses have been suffering in queues outside pharmacies. Meanwhile, Mr. Tasoulas throws out a quip about “granting funds to my electoral district after I stopped being an MP,” as if he were a benefactor using his own money. And then, we’re supposed to figure out who to support when, in reality, there’s nothing beyond Mitsotakis!

Greek-Turkish Relations
The turbulence caused by Trump’s election doesn’t bode well for Greek-Turkish dialogue, which has already lost momentum and revolves around the “positive agenda” with little prospect for substantial progress on bilateral issues. A few days ago, I wrote that the High-Level Cooperation Council in Ankara is being pushed back to March. Now I’m telling you that even for this, I’d add an asterisk. No one seems to be in a hurry, and K.M. himself believes it’s best to “let the dust settle.” Even Gerapetritis, at yesterday’s New Year’s cake-cutting event at the Foreign Ministry, didn’t give the impression that we’ll see developments anytime soon.

Fairfax’s Placement
Yesterday’s Fairfax placement for 2.28% of Eurobank shares resulted from stricter supervisory interpretations concerning the obligation to submit a public offer, as the Canadian group owned over 35% and has now dropped below 33%. Around 80 million shares were sold, valued at approximately €190 million. Reports indicate the shares were quickly taken up, with offers exceeding €500 million in under an hour.

Kasogi Family Energy Company Sale Stumbles
We had previously written about the teaser sent to major players in the domestic energy market and funds, inviting interest in the sale of National Energy. This is a London-based holding company managing 383 MW of renewable energy projects (193 MW operational, 190 MW under construction). All its projects—25% wind and 75% solar—are in Greece, with facilities in Corinth, Argolida, Aetolia-Acarnania, Messinia, Ilia, Boeotia, and more.

National Energy’s shareholders include James Cox, a well-known businessman (also known for his ties to Scientology and his friendship with Tom Cruise, as well as his personal fortune of €5 billion). Cox is married to Nabila Kasogi, daughter of Adnan Kasogi from his first marriage. The other shareholder is Loredana Biancolini, also known as Lamia Kasogi, the second wife of the Saudi businessman and arms dealer.

The sale of National Energy, however, has hit a wall. Cox and Nabila reportedly disagree with Loredana on various issues, complicating the process. Interest from foreign investors is scarce, while Greek companies, preferring to acquire individual projects, consider the asking price too high. Adding to the complications, the CFO, who played a key role in the sale process, resigned a few days ago citing personal reasons. Currently, PwC UK is conducting legal and financial audits of National Energy as part of the sale.

The Active Tsamaz, the Israelis, and Unisystems
It’s unclear if his honorary promotion as a reserve officer to… Brigadier General influenced matters, but the Israelis of Intracom Defense, who acquired the company two years ago, found an experienced manager for the chairmanship of the board during a crucial period, as major deals and agreements loom in the defense industry. Discussions between the two parties concluded weeks ago, with the offer reportedly very attractive, especially in terms of compensation.

Ultimately, the Israeli shareholders gave the green light, and Tsamaz, 2after Unisystems, now holds another executive position. Speaking of Unisystems, at a recent gathering organized by Spyros Capralos at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation ahead of the elections for the Hellenic Olympic Committee Presidency (2025-2029), Th. Fessas and M. Tsamaz were seen chatting extensively in several groups.

Let’s not forget that M. Tsamaz also serves as chairman of the board of Quest’s subsidiary, with core priorities in business development, strategy, and entering new markets such as defense systems. The market expects developments regarding Unisystems, including a potential IPO, entry of a strategic investor, or perhaps… something entirely different, as Th. Fessas is known for striking profitable deals.

The “Relocation” of Attiki Odos

With the appointment of the new concessionaire, Attiki Odos has entered a new era, with the most notable change being the reduction of toll fees from €2.80 to €2.50 for passenger vehicles, and corresponding reductions for other categories (€1.25 for mopeds, €6.25 for small and medium-sized trucks, and €10 for large trucks). These changes have been in effect since early October 2024, coinciding with the implementation of the new concession agreement won by the GEK TERNA group. Behind the scenes, however, many structural and personnel changes are taking place within Attiki Odos S.A. and Attikes Diadromes S.A. For instance, I’ve learned that the Board of Directors of Attiki Odos S.A., whose composition has not yet changed, decided on December 19 to relocate the company’s headquarters from the 41.9 km mark of Attiki Odos to 25 Ermou Street in the municipality of Kifisia. Given that this location houses the headquarters of the Ellaktor Group (a key shareholder in the previous concession, along with Avax), I assume this move is of a temporary nature.

Lavipharm: Toward a New Agreement with a Foreign Group

Recent days have seen significant activity at Lavipharm’s central facilities in Paiania. While details are unclear, reports suggest an imminent business agreement with an international group. If these reports are confirmed, it would mean that yet another Greek product, widely used, will be available in global markets, significantly boosting Lavipharm’s profitability. Over the past month, the stock price has seen a slight uptick (+4.3%), with capitalization exceeding €134.5 million, although it remains 11.3% below levels seen six months ago.

Macquarie’s Advocacy at RAE and ADMIE’s Gains

DEDDIE (the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator) has proposed to the Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) a bold adjustment to the allowable revenue (WACC) for the 2025-2028 period. Macquarie executives (holding 49% of DEDDIE shares) have been making frequent visits and submissions to RAE to substantiate and justify the request for at least a 7.5% adjustment in the WACC. From this discussion, the main beneficiary appears to be ADMIE, whose stock “woke up” yesterday from its slumber, gaining 0.73% to €2.76, with capitalization surpassing €640 million.

The Investor Shopping for Greek Tourism Stocks

In recent days, increased transactions and significant stock gains have been recorded in the “Greek Tourism Package.” Aegean Airlines, Athens International Airport, and Autohellas stand out on the trading boards, with brokers commenting on the presence of a new foreign investor. This investor sees “Greece” as synonymous with “Tourism” and buys shares with expectations of dividend yields. Aegean is rapidly approaching a capitalization of €1 billion, with increased trading volumes. Athens International Airport saw an impressive rise again yesterday (+3.5%), with trading volumes boosting its capitalization to €2.5 billion. Meanwhile, Autohellas, despite being a “small” stock with limited liquidity, has recorded gains exceeding 9% over the past month. All this suggests a clear investment strategy focusing on tourism stocks with high dividend yields.

TERNA Energy Nearing the Finish Line; GEK TERNA and AKTOR Take Over

The absorption of the remaining shares of TERNA Energy through the public offering by the Masdar Group is now a matter of days, leading to immediate shareholder reshuffling. On one hand, those who trusted TERNA Energy are now cashing in on the public offering and turning their attention back to the GEK TERNA Group, whose stock is approaching a capitalization of €2 billion. On the other hand, AKTOR (formerly Intrakat) stands to benefit as it completes its €200 million capital increase on Friday. These funds are intended to finance existing projects and acquisitions, including Prodea and Entelecheia properties. AKTOR patiently awaits TERNA Energy’s removal from the FTSE25 index to take its place among large-cap stocks. For this reason, AKTOR’s capitalization is fast approaching €1 billion, putting it on the radar of larger investment firms.

More Women on the Boards of Listed Companies

The Hellenic Capital Market Commission, in collaboration with the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV), is organizing a conference on corporate governance tomorrow, Friday, at the Athens Concert Hall. Topics include sustainability (with extensive reference to the recently passed law on sustainability reporting) and changes to the quota requirements for women on boards. Following the integration of the “Women in Boards” directive, the quota for female board members will rise from 25% to 33%. The conference will feature notable speakers, including Carmine Di Noia, Director for Financial and Enterprise Affairs at the OECD; Jean Paul Servais from IOSCO; Ante Zigman, president of Croatia’s capital market supervisory authority; George Theocharides from Cyprus; Chiara Mosca, Commissioner of Italy’s supervisory authority; and other distinguished representatives from Greek listed companies and institutions.

Wednesday, the Day of Rotation

After the double-digit returns in this year’s banking profits, yesterday was a day for profit-taking and for spreading the upward trend to other, previously neglected stocks. The Banking Index slipped by -2.38%, the Large Cap Index (FTSE 25) fell by 1.04%, but in the end, the General Index maintained its dignity with losses of 0.57%, closing at 1,530.68 points, with a transaction value of €135.1 million. Banks couldn’t withstand the pressure, accounting for half the day’s turnover (€67 million out of €137 million), creating space for other stocks to grow. For instance, Athens Airport rose by +3.73% to €8.40, Aegean Airlines climbed +3.10%, while Cenergy distanced itself from Orsted with a +1.77% increase to €9.75. TITAN surpassed €45 (+2.25%) to reach €45.5, OPAP, with the new jackpot in Joker, gained +1.06%, and GEK TERNA saw an increase of more than 1%.

Slim Pickings in Davos

In cold, albeit not too snowy Davos, the 55th meeting of the World Economic Forum continues. On the famous pedestrian street of the village, the Promenade, major corporations (SAP, Intel, Qualcomm, Palantir), as well as state organizations, present their latest achievements and reveal the direction the world will take. In the grand meeting halls, the “elephant in the room” is none other than the new American president. Donald Trump announced that he will participate today via teleconference in one of the panels. This 55th meeting in Davos will go down in the Forum’s history more for its absences, as neither the French president, the Italian prime minister, nor their British counterpart will attend. The Chinese president will also be absent. The presence of Olaf Scholz, who is preparing for German elections next month, does little to counterbalance these absences.

The Sino-American War Has Just Begun

Donald Trump is discussing with his advisors the imposition of 10% tariffs on Chinese products. But this will only be the beginning. Electric vehicles (and vehicles in general) are a particularly “hot” topic since China now controls 39% of the global car market. Imposing tariffs threatens to plunge China into a major recession. China is currently experiencing its longest deflationary period since 1999. The yield on China’s 10-year government bond has now halved since January 2024, hitting a new record low. The $11 trillion government bond market is shaking as the communist government desperately tries to implement economic stimulus measures, with no success. The gap between the yields of China’s 10-year bond and those of the United States (5%) has reached a record 294 basis points. Never in history has the spread been this wide, with the average hovering around 100 basis points. Industrial production and consumption in China have slowed significantly. China is not buying oil like before; its industry doesn’t need it. Since 2008, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has more than doubled to 366%. That’s three times the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio. However, China’s 10-year bond is at 2%, while the U.S. equivalent is at 5%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of China is buying gold like there’s no tomorrow. China’s gold reserves have risen to 72.96 million ounces (as of November). These reserves are currently worth $193 billion, and the buying spree continues. Simply put, Trump is preparing an offensive, while China is building its golden defense.