Hello, today, unexpectedly, Mitsotakis decided to give an interview to Alpha (Sroiter), with the almost exclusive topic being Tempi, although logically, the Prime Minister will be asked about all issues. I do not know if K.M. will contribute anything new to the Tempi case, and I honestly understand why he feels the need to come out and speak, taking on, once again, a very serious matter. What I honestly do not understand is why, apart from Floridis, who appeared in the media to provide explanations about the Judiciary and defend that it is doing its job properly, I have not seen the Minister responsible for Transport anywhere. Where has Staikouras been all this time to tell concerned citizens what is happening with the trains even today? Because one issue is what happened, but an equally serious issue is what has changed or what has been fixed in OSE so that people can trust the trains again. Or is it that they have nothing to say, and that’s why Staikouras is not coming forward? Or is he simply avoiding “bad publicity” and leaving it all for Mitsotakis to handle?
Preliminary Investigation, but for Whom?
On the same subject, I spoke yesterday with my source at M.M. regarding legal matters, and I posed the question that the opposition is also asking: why doesn’t the government initiate or at least consent to the establishment of a Preliminary Investigation Committee for political figures? “Let’s set up a Preliminary Investigation, but on what charge and for which person? We are not talking about an Inquiry Committee; there has to be a specific charge assigned to someone,” my source replied. If the opposition answers that question, I do not know…
Androulakis Goes Out in the Field
Institutional presence and TV interviews are all well and good, but they do not sell tickets. That is how several associates of our leader, Nikos A., think, and they are pushing him to go out and tour the country, while some say that by the elections, he must have traveled across Greece at least once. He kicks off his tours today from Boeotia, where farmers face major irrigation issues.
Mykonos – Nammos
Negotiations are still ongoing for the termination of the partnership between the Arab Fund and the two founders of Nammos, Zanis and Samy. What is certain is that the Mykonos club will remain with the two… financially unruly Greek boys because, as my sources say, where would the Arabs find a way to deal with the tax authorities and suppliers? Of course, Zanis and Samy will keep the Mykonos venue, and that is what matters to them, but they will have to pay royalties to the Arabs and rent to Papalekas, who owns the Psarou property. The rest of the Nammos Group’s assets in Dubai, Cannes, and elsewhere will go to the Fund—but not entirely for free, as it will also pay a few million to the two partners. Look, I don’t know whom the financial arrangement favors, but I certainly do not feel sorry for our boys; quite the opposite…
The Revolt of Mid-Sized Contractors Over Thessaly
Next Friday, January 31, the Unified Public Procurement Authority (EADISY) is expected to discuss the appeal filed by small construction companies EKTER (Thanasis Sipsas), Domiki Kritis (Sinatsakis – Koutras), ERETVO (Giorgos Romosios), and TENA (Nathanailidis family) against the decision of the political leadership of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport to award contracts worth €1.13 billion in Thessaly to large construction groups. The ministry has already allocated the major share to the four technical companies holding the highest contractor classification, despite pressures from small and mid-sized companies to get a piece of the pie. The contracts have already been “locked in” by the ministry through direct invitations sent in December to the four major construction groups in the country: GEK TERNA, AKTOR, METKA, and AVAX. The issue of Thessaly’s public works was recently raised in Athens by regional governor Dimitris Koureta, who stated that local technical companies should also receive a share of the large contracts, proposing that €100 to €150 million from the total budget be allocated to them. The mid-sized contractors have stated that if they do not receive a favorable decision from EADISY, they are seriously considering appealing to the Council of State or even the European Commission. Due to this appeal, the contract signings remain pending until EADISY’s ruling. According to the ministry’s distribution for damages to road and rail infrastructure caused by Daniel and Elia, TERNA will receive contracts worth €418 million, AKTOR €323 million, AVAX €178 million, and METKA approximately €134 million.
NOVA: Negotiations with Serbs and Arabs
After the administrative changes announced at Vodafone Greece on Monday, with Achilleas Kanaris assuming the position of CEO from April 1st, yesterday came the announcements regarding the administrative changes at Nova, a member of United Group, the well-known telecommunications and media provider in Southeast Europe. The current CEO, Panagiotis Georgiopoulos, will remain only as a board member, while Giorgos Lamprou, until now Chief Financial Officer (CFO), is appointed interim CEO for the transitional period. Ditka Maučec, Executive Director of Product Strategy at United Group, assumes the role of interim Chief Marketing Officer, replacing Michalis Anagnostakos, one of the most well-known and experienced executives in the marketing industry. Additionally, Tomaž Kampuš, Executive Director of Sales and Customer Experience at United Group, assumes the role of interim Chief Commercial Officer, replacing Christos Noulis. In practice, these changes and the placement of Serbian executives as an interim solution suggest that the sale of NOVA, which has been discussed for some time, is not proceeding as expected at this stage or, if preferred, is progressing toward the Serbian side. Needless to say, the administrative reshuffling at NOVA has sparked speculation about potential shareholder changes, with the Serbian shareholders of United possibly acquiring BC’s stake. Reliable sources indicate that the administrative changes are unrelated to the impending sale of NOVA but simultaneously confirm that discussions are ongoing with Serbian shareholders as well as Arab interests, though it is too early to predict any developments.
Telecommunications: Different Strategies, but Market Shares?
The deck is being reshuffled once again—and quite significantly—in the telecommunications sector overall, and it is interesting to see the potential changes in market shares resulting from the different strategies of the new administrations. From Cosmote, where Kostas Nebis took over last summer, to the reportedly more “aggressive” commercial approach of the new CEO of Vodafone Greece, while at NOVA, the non-sale will not bring many changes. All this is happening while DEI is making a strong entry into the optical fiber sector, expanding beyond wholesale into retail as well.
Olympos: Pass on Dodoni
There are market rumors that CVC is in talks with the Sarantis brothers (Olympos, Rodopi, Tyras, Agno, Doumpia, Kliafa) regarding the dairy company Dodoni, but this is not true. The Sarantis brothers attempted twice in the past to acquire Dodoni (hence the rumors) and now state that “even if it were handed to us on a silver platter, we would pass.”
Alpha Bank and the Acquisition of Flexin
The acquisition of 100% of Flexin by Alpha Bank, with the aim of merging it with ABC Factors, aligns with CEO V. Psaltis’ strategy of integrating strong companies into the group to create greater scale and improved services. Through this merger, Alpha Bank is establishing the most innovative factoring company in Greece, offering a digital service platform that provides instant access, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, it is incorporating into its management team two executives with experience in foreign banks such as Goldman Sachs and UBS.
The New Company of Sarantopoulos
Eduardos Sarantopoulos, from the well-known family of contractors (Pantechniki, etc.), is launching a new corporate venture. Specifically, on Tuesday, January 28th, the company “E.C.S. Engineering and Contracting Services Single-Member P.C.” was established, with an initial share capital of 2,000 euros divided into 2,000 equity shares of 1 euro each, fully paid by Eduardos Sarantopoulos himself, who is also the manager. The purpose of the new company is to provide construction project management services, scientific technical consulting, engineering consulting, etc., while its headquarters are in Kifisia. E. Sarantopoulos, who among other roles has had a long-standing presence in companies of the Ellaktor Group, is also a board member of Attiki Odos.
The HHG Deal Raised the Value of the Medical Center
Yesterday, the stock market discovered the “hidden charm” of the Athens Medical Center, whose stock surged +9.61% to €1.8250, pushing its market capitalization above €158 million. The investment logic behind this move is relatively simple: since the sale of 60% of Hellenic Healthcare Group’s (HHG) healthcare portfolio was “priced” at 13 times enterprise value (EV) to EBITDA, how much could the Medical Center be worth with its seven hospitals and total capacity of 1,200 hospital beds? Based on published balance sheets, the Medical Center’s operating profit for 2023 was €38 million, so at 13x EV/EBITDA, its value reaches €494 million. Currently, on the stock exchange, the Medical Center is valued at €158.2 million.
Which DeepSeek? The Stock Market at a 14-Year High
The General Index closed above 1,545 points for the first time in 14 years and is now “chasing” levels above 1,550 points. The next target is the 1,552.20 points of April 7, 2011. The large-cap index reached a more than 10-year high, stopping at its highest level since September 11, 2014 (3,784.30 points). Yesterday was a historic day for PPC, as it broke the “barrier” of 13 euros for the first time in 15 years. During the session, it had “touched” this level last Friday, January 24 (13.14 euros as the day’s high), but on Tuesday, it reached it at closing, settling at 13.16 euros. The next level after that is 13.32 euros from August 19, 2010. Piraeus Bank remained in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day. Its gains yesterday were small but enough to secure a new record. The banking stock rose to 4.48 euros, its highest price in the last four years. The next best closing price was on April 13, 2021, at 4.784 euros.
Days of Turnarounds
The day-before-yesterday’s downward session had a trading value of 114 million euros. Yesterday’s upward reaction of the General Index (1,545.62 points, +0.37%) occurred with an increased trading value of 133.75 million euros, of which 11.3 million concerned pre-agreed block trades. The official announcement of the launch of TITAN America shares on Wall Street, at a price between $15 and $18, lowered expectations for the parent company TITAN and ended a months-long “crazy party” with a drop of -3.33% to 43.5 euros. The market capitalization of the TITAN Group stopped at 3.4 billion euros yesterday. What TITAN did not achieve, OTE (+2.34% at 14.9 euros) did, with the help of VIOHALCO (+1.19% at 5.9€). Coca Cola returned to a market capitalization of 12.5 billion euros with an increase of +1.21%, while OPAP (+1.34%), Aegean (+1.31%), Metlen (+1.18%), and Motor Oil (+1.14%) also contributed. One day before central bankers convene in America and Europe, the U.S. 10-year government bond offers a yield of 4.56%, the German Bund 2.56%, the French bond 3.28%, and Greece follows the leaders with a 10-year government bond yield of 3.39%. Gold quietly reached a new record high this week, marking a +35% rise in 12 months, close to $2,800 per ounce.
Wall Street Has Decided: AI Moves to Personal Devices
DeepSeek caused turmoil in the global AI community last week for two reasons. 1. It introduced an open-source model with an exceptionally flexible usage license, allowing anyone to use it. 2. It disproved the prevailing notion that billions in investments are necessary for the development and operation of generative AI models. This dramatic shift in the landscape was immediately reflected on Wall Street. On Monday, the total market capitalization of listed technology companies recorded a historic drop. They lost $1.2 trillion. The 500 richest people in the world collectively lost $108 billion. The main player in this decline was NVIDIA, which saw its value decrease by $500 billion (-17%) on Monday and showed signs of stabilization yesterday with a positive trend. NVIDIA has secured a legendary market capitalization in 2024, with the market pricing in massive future profits. In contrast, Apple saw its stock rise by +3.6%. This is the new reality: Apple suddenly gained a privileged position in the AI race by providing hardware (ARM silicon chips) for artificial intelligence applications on mobile devices (edge). Yesterday, Apple’s market capitalization surpassed NVIDIA’s by $600 million.
The First to Get the Message
The first investment bank that seemed to immediately grasp the message of the new Artificial Intelligence era was Morgan Stanley. It promptly issued a report lowering Nvidia’s price target from $166 to $152, without hiding the reason: DeepSeek. The report notes that DeepSeek’s AI innovations may be deflationary and could lead to export controls or even reduced AI investments.
Shipping Market Conditions Have Changed
The era of fat profits is over for ocean-going shipping. Freight market conditions have changed. This phenomenon is partly seasonal, but fundamentally, the downturn in the Chinese economy, the restoration of calm in the straits, trade restrictions, and the steady increase in new ships competing for market share in a reduced trade environment have driven prices down. A medium-sized dry bulk cargo ship today charters for as little as $5,000 per day, whereas at the same time last year, the same ship charged up to $15,000. The daily operating cost of a ship (especially if burdened with loans) can reach up to $12,000. A similar situation appears to be unfolding in the tanker and container shipping sectors. Experienced shipowners know well how to navigate such “dry” periods. The problem lies with the novice “shipowners” who thought they had discovered the “golden goose.”
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