Hello. In today’s seismic bulletin, a reliable source told me that the more days go by with “strong” earthquakes at these levels, the better our chances of avoiding major damage. This daily release of energy seems to be reducing the risk of a large earthquake, but of course, that doesn’t mean we can relax on safety measures—because if disaster strikes and we’re unprepared, it will be catastrophic. Just to clarify, my source is political, not scientific, but still credible. The same source pointed out that it’s a good thing this is happening now and not during the tourist season because if this seismic activity follows a normal pattern, it should subside within a few weeks. Let’s hope that’s the case—but honestly, who really knows?

Tempi – Pre-Investigation – Triantopoulos

As we told you, the government has accepted the pre-investigation into Triantopoulos regarding everything that has unfolded since yesterday, which suggests that our leader, Nikos, is in a bit of a mess. First, there’s Gerovasili basically telling him, “Come on, Nikos, this is old news—we knew about the Triantopoulos report in Parliament last summer, but we decided you don’t launch a pre-investigation over a misdemeanor.” But more importantly, there’s Plakias’ statement—which, let’s not forget, this man lost three children in the Tempi crash—that really hit hard. I don’t know if Triantopoulos will remain a minister now that a pre-investigation has been launched against him.

Let’s See the Whole Report…

So far, what we’ve seen in the press (Real News, EfSyn, Kathimerini) is what the University of Ghent says about the massive explosion in the freight train—basically, that there must have been around 3.5-4 tons of flammable material on board. What we haven’t seen yet, according to my source from M.M., is the full picture that will emerge from the investigation by the National Agency for the Investigation of Air and Rail Accidents. The Ghent report that’s been published is just one part of this broader investigation. “That’s where we’ll get a full account and the conclusions on what caused the accident, and we’ll be reminded—beyond any doubt—of the long series of mistakes and oversights that led to the disaster,” my M.M. source emphasizes. We’re all waiting to see it with great interest.

They’re Calling It “Emotional Support”

I just read Nikolas the Confused’s pre-investigation proposal, and honestly, I’m speechless—not just me, but the entire field of legal science. Of course, I’m not a judge, and I don’t claim to know exactly what happened in such a serious case. But for the Green Eagles to say that the supposed cover-up isn’t based on any evidence or testimony, just on the mere presence of someone and the “emotional support” they provided… I mean, it’s beyond ridiculous. It’s not even laughable—it’s just tragic.

Milos – M.M. Meeting

Next week, the prime minister will chair a meeting prompted by the outrageous attempt to build a hotel at Sarakiniko in Milos. The goal is to figure out how to prevent similar construction projects in dozens of Greece’s most stunning natural landscapes. The bitter truth is that there are no official protection regulations for Sarakiniko, so the hotel developer likely exploited this incredible loophole. In this case, the situation can still be salvaged because, quite simply, anyone who appeals to the Council of State to stop the construction will win—since there’s no officially recognized road in front of Sarakiniko. Of course, that alone doesn’t solve the problem, so we’ll have to wait and see what measures they come up with to prevent this from happening again.

Today or Tomorrow…

Preparations at Piraeus Bank are reaching their peak, time is running out, and while you can never be 100% sure with these things, everything points to developments either today or tomorrow—meaning the submission of a binding offer for Ethniki Asfalistiki (National Insurance). The current focus is on the price, with market rumors suggesting a deal worth between €550-600 million. There are many factors we’ll learn about later that will help us properly assess the acquisition—like how much Piraeus’ asset management division will be strengthened once it takes over the management of Ethniki Asfalistiki’s bond portfolio, among other things. Piraeus Bank will also seek to take advantage of the Danish Compromise, though this framework doesn’t apply to Greek banks. The Danish Compromise is a regulatory provision allowing a bank to make an acquisition without having to write off goodwill. Recently, BNP bought AXA’s asset management division for €5 billion and avoided €4.5 billion in goodwill write-offs. However, the Danish Compromise is only granted upon a specific request to the regulator and applies only to acquisitions of €6 billion or more—so it remains uncertain whether it will be approved.

What Led to the Offer for Ethniki Asfalistiki

What drove Piraeus Bank to (so far) submit a non-binding offer for Ethniki Asfalistiki? DBRS explained that Greek banks lack the revenue diversification seen in their European counterparts. Traditional banking and payment services account for 76.7% of total commission revenue, while only 20.3% comes from advisory services and bancassurance. According to DBRS, this is a competitive disadvantage for Greek banks, which is why moves like Piraeus Bank’s bid for Ethniki Asfalistiki—or investments in factoring and asset management—are attempts to diversify their revenue streams.

A New Board for Attica Bank

Attica Bank will soon unveil a new Board of Directors. In addition to former (2019-2024) Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, K. Herodotou, who will assume the role of Chairman, sources say the board will also include legal advisor N. Pimplis—widely known in the market from his time at Koutalidis Law Firm, as well as from his presidency of the Athens Concert Hall. Meanwhile, TMEDE President K. Makedos will remain on the board. This new composition reflects the changes brought about by the bank’s restructuring, as shareholders aim to form a strong board, with K. Herodotou being the first step in that direction. On this occasion, it’s worth mentioning that with the completion of two securitizations of non-performing loan portfolios—”Domus” and “Rhodium” (€3.7 billion)—Attica Bank has reduced its non-performing exposure ratio to 2.8%.

Mr. Chatzidakis is Optimistic About Doubling Debt Settlements

The government is banking on the out-of-court settlement mechanism to reduce private debt, which is why Mr. Chatzidakis has doubled the income and asset limits for those considered vulnerable debtors. A pleasant surprise, since this expansion paves the way for many middle-class households to take advantage of the mechanism. The Ministry of Finance estimates that this measure could potentially double or even triple the number of settlements. The economic team’s optimism is based on the fact that measures taken in 2023 (such as increasing debt write-offs up to 28%, mandatory settlement for vulnerable borrowers, lower interest rates, etc.) have “matured” in 2024, leading to an 81% increase in out-of-court settlements. These have now surpassed the 30,000 mark, with the total restructured debt exceeding €10 billion.

The Property Leaseback Agency is Up Next

Following the announcement of the expansion of beneficiaries for the Out-of-Court Mechanism, the Property Recovery and Leaseback Agency is next in line. The agency’s tender is ready, and it will now require binding offers from interested investors. This final phase of the process will conclude by the end of March. Banks will contribute to the agency’s share capital or provide loans to the preferred investor selected through the international competition for the project. The purchase of homes will be conducted through auctions. The first goal is to reclaim 2,000 homes belonging to vulnerable households, allowing them to continue living in their residences by paying a small rent.

New (Family) Business Ventures of Syrianos from EZA

The well-known businessman Athanasios Syrianos, head of the Hellenic Brewery of Atalanti (EZA), has established a new company. The company, named “Amaltheia Investments,” focuses on capital management, consulting services, and investments (in stocks, securities, real estate, etc.). The company, headquartered in Rafina, has an initial share capital of €700,000, fully paid in cash. Syrianos himself is both Chairman and CEO, having contributed €699,000, corresponding to 699,000 shares (a 699/700 stake in the company). The board also includes his wife, Dorothea Elisabeth Syrianos, who contributed €1,000 for 1,000 shares (1/700 stake), and Sonia Syrianou.

Koutsolioutsos’ “Revolutionary Gymnastics”

After requesting an extraordinary general meeting last December to discuss 20 (!) issues, Dimitris Koutsolioutsos’ lawyers didn’t even show up yesterday, causing the meeting to be postponed. Koutsolioutsos, who holds a 35% stake in Folli Follie, is believed by many to be trying to sabotage the company’s restructuring agreement. Despite its past troubles, the company has managed to stay afloat and even grow under the leadership of CEO Giorgos Samios. Samios expressed his disappointment at the absence of Koutsolioutsos’ legal team, which didn’t even notify them of their no-show. Nonetheless, he stated he is fully prepared to counter Koutsolioutsos’ claims of mismanagement. Some speculate that Koutsolioutsos is hoping (?) the agreement will collapse, leading to the company’s bankruptcy, allowing certain “friendly forces” to snatch up its assets for peanuts. The meeting will reconvene in two weeks. However, journalists who attended at Agios Stefanos didn’t leave empty-handed—they learned that the appeal trial for the release of Folli Follie’s frozen assets, worth approximately €31 million (€28 million in real estate and €3 million in cash), is set for April 9. If the assets are released, the restructuring agreement will be finalized.

Garbage (and More) is Financially Strangling Corfu

Given the island’s massive tourism revenues and decades of development, few would expect Corfu’s central municipality to be in dire financial straits. Yet, a series of long-term missteps by local authorities, missed opportunities to utilize funding, and a general lack of vision have led to major issues that can no longer be resolved through traditional municipal solutions. In response, the local government has decided on steep hikes in municipal fees—starting at 170% and reaching up to 400%!—citing the high costs of waste management, a sector in which municipal leadership has failed for years. According to local press reports from Epirus (where Corfu’s garbage is transported), the Central Corfu municipality owes over €1 million to the Epirus Waste Management Association. After the fiasco under SYRIZA, which halted the tender for a waste processing plant, a consortium of GEK TERNA – Mesogeios will take over the project in about six months, eventually resolving the issue. But waste isn’t the only problem: The island’s ancient water supply network barely functions, and in summer, entire areas are left without water. Locals have gotten used to water rationing, but tourists haven’t, leading to constant negative publicity on social media. Add to that frequent power outages, leaking sewage turning into health hazards, and chaotic roads, and you get the full picture of a once-thriving island now neglected.

“John Fears the Beast…”

Despite the delay in imposing tariffs (on Canada and Mexico), Europe is bracing for President Trump’s next unpredictable move against the continent. European stock markets aren’t exactly shaking in their boots, but they’re not making bold, optimistic moves either. After yesterday’s overheated session at the Athens Stock Exchange, transactions fell to €101.5 million, with €12.97 million in block trades. Coca-Cola (-0.52% at €34.2) didn’t help, Piraeus Bank (€4.239, -0.54%) isn’t rushing to price in developments regarding National Insurance, while Eurobank and Alpha displayed a rather indifferent stance. Meanwhile, National Bank was only concerned with maintaining its €8.2 price point. The usual surge of buyers after 4 PM did nothing to spark interest, so the General Index closed at 1,517.35 points, down -0.23%. The low turnover, however, allowed select mid-cap stocks to showcase their strength. AVAX (+1.98%) and Noval (+2.12%) rebounded from previous losses, while ADMIE continued its upward streak with a +1.68% jump to €2.725, along with Aktor, whose new shares debuted at €5.02.

Rushing Gold to the U.S. Before Tariffs Hit

The price of gold is heading straight for $2,900 per ounce, reaching all-time highs. With Trump’s impending trade war looming, major gold traders have started transferring their reserves to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs. Even the Bank of England is withdrawing gold to send it across the Atlantic. The year 2024 saw record demand for gold, reaching 4,975 tons. Central banks alone purchased 1,045 tons last year. The National Bank of Poland led the way as the top buyer among central banks, adding 90 tons to its reserves. The Central Bank of Turkey followed, increasing its gold holdings by 75 tons—surpassing even India’s purchases. The Reserve Bank of India came in third.

Apple Feels the Heat from China, Strikes Back with a New “Secret” Product

Trump’s tariffs on China have triggered retaliation. Under pressure from Chinese tech giants (Tencent, ByteDance, etc.), the country’s antitrust authority is threatening Apple with a 30% developer fee while simultaneously restricting third-party payments made through Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s stock opened yesterday’s session down -3%, but China’s government isn’t stopping there—it’s also putting pressure on Google and Nvidia. As iPhone sales in China continue to decline, Apple is preparing to launch a new product to counteract the downturn. The rumored service, codenamed “Confetti,” is said to be a completely new way to invite people to parties, events, and gatherings. Apple’s traditional Calendar app is being revamped with new features tied to the iOS 18.3 operating system, which has already begun rolling out to iPhone users.