Hello there,

The great European turmoil continues, fueled by Vance’s statements on Friday and the rather incomprehensible (perhaps intentionally so) moves and statements from the U.S. government. Yesterday, as expected, Macron’s informal summit produced little more than a wish list. But what can the EU actually do at this point, when it neither knows the exact plans of the Americans nor, of course, can it just form an army with “one law and one article” (as the SYRIZA folks used to say back in the day)? At M.M. (Maximos Mansion, the Greek PM’s office), they’re watching the situation with visible anxiety (to be fair, Macron was keeping this one close to his chest and didn’t invite Mitsotakis). The Greek government has been making it clear in every possible way, both publicly and behind closed doors, that Greece will not send a single soldier’s boot if Europe takes on a broader role in Ukraine in place of the U.S. Now, if Starmer wants to send British troops to fight, I honestly don’t see him lasting the year.

Emergency Summit Delayed

In the aftermath of the Élysée gathering, there’s now talk of whether an emergency EU Summit could take place in the coming weeks, before the scheduled one in Brussels in about a month. Aside from today’s emergency EPP videoconference (which Ursula is pushing for to rally leaders to her side), I don’t see anything happening soon. It’s already difficult enough to hold an emergency summit when the issue of the new German government remains unresolved—elections are on Sunday, but forming a coalition will take time.

Who’s the Next Foreign Minister?

Now, on the domestic front, there’s plenty of gossip but not much real news about an upcoming cabinet reshuffle. The most likely scenario seems to be Gerapetritis moving to M.M. as Deputy Prime Minister, but that’s about it for now. As for his replacement, I’ve heard Alexandra Papadopoulou’s name (his current deputy). I’ve also heard Margaritis Schinas, who has resurfaced lately. And then, a particularly “spirited” source (yes, there are such people) even threw Dimitris Avramopoulos into the mix—because, apparently, he knows how to chat with Erdoğan on the phone.

Tell me that’s not a juicy bit of intel…

SYRIZA-PASOK: A Comedy of Errors

To lighten things up, I read Famelos claiming that Mitsotakis is an “illegitimate” Prime Minister—all this from a guy whose party is polling at 7%! Honestly, we’re in a golden era of nonsense, with everyone blurting out whatever ridiculous statement comes to mind. The same thing is happening over at PASOK, where Milena (Apostolaki) suddenly woke up and is now claiming that the government has “lost its mandate” in the eyes of society. (Expired meds, maybe?) Meanwhile, Nikos Androulakis is on a daily nonsense spree. One day, he claims he has “no confidence in the judiciary” (the same judiciary that, by the way, ruled in favor of the butcher). The next, he’s mocking a Sorbonne university, which naturally clapped back, saying, “Actually, we’re in the top 4.4% of universities worldwide.” And then, he’s picking fights with the media.

Honestly, could you ever imagine Andreas Papandreou or Kostas Simitis getting into a spat with a butcher? Then again, you might say, “Could you imagine George Papandreou fighting a butcher for ecological reasons?”

Fair point.

Attica Group Eyes the Bottled Water Business

Big moves are happening in the bottled water industry, which has recently become a very attractive investment sector. The trend has apparently caught the eye of K. Magiras from Attica Group, who has made a business move to gain control of ETANAP—the company behind various bottled water brands from Crete. Attica Group, after acquiring ANEK Lines, also got a 31.9% stake in ETANAP. So, they thought, why not take full control? They made an offer of €10 per share to the remaining shareholders.

But the other shareholders weren’t exactly thrilled. They’re asking €17-18 per share to sell. Thus, a negotiation game has begun between Attica Group and ETANAP’s other shareholders. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if they settle somewhere in the middle—around €14-15 per share. However, I do have doubts about Attica Group’s business model—especially this whole transportation + hotels idea, which hasn’t really worked out in the past. If I recall correctly, the only company that tried to combine transportation with hotel operations was Swissair. And when they ran into financial trouble, they managed to sell off the hotels just before going bankrupt. Just because you transport passengers and give them a bed for the night doesn’t mean you’re a hotelier.

(And let’s not even get started on hotel renovations.)

As for the bottled water? My guess is they plan to sell it on their ships’ bars to boost revenue—especially ahead of the upcoming share placement.

Troubles and Legal Notices

And since I was talking about troubles with bottled water, let me mention that the waters seem to be choppy for another public company in Crete, Zaros. Here, the Municipality of Faistos controls 44%, while the remaining 56% belongs to around 1,000 shareholders. Rumor has it that legal notices are flying between the two sides, as a strategic dilemma emerges: whether to sell or continue managing the company under the current conditions. Let me note, by the way, that both ETANAP and Zaros are profitable companies and distribute dividends to their shareholders.

The Credit Expansion Anxiety and Eleftherios Venizelos Airport

The fierce battle fought recently over the financing of Athens International Airport—one of the few AAA-rated companies in Greece—along with a series of other deals in the food and trade sectors, seems to be causing ripples in the Greek banking market. The latest leaks, which many attribute to a preemptive effort to manage the upcoming financial results from banks in the next few days, suggest as much. In the case of AIA, the €800 million loan was secured by ALPHA BANK due to its superior structuring, making it highly sought after by foreign banks, as they expect it to be syndicated. The quarterly financial reports released by banks indicate their margins and who is sacrificing profitability for credit expansion. Analysts expect Alpha Bank to show strong credit expansion, as management had promised, with stable interest income compared to Q3, despite falling interest rates. In a week, we’ll know for sure.

Why the Banks Are in a Hurry

Systemic banks have suddenly rushed to announce their financial results for 2024. All announcements will be completed by February 28, and they are even moving up their general meetings—Eurobank has already scheduled its meeting for April 30, while Piraeus Bank has stated that its meeting will take place sometime in April, with reports suggesting mid-April. There’s a reason for this haste. Greek banks are aligning their announcements with European banks because major investment banks and international institutional investors base their decisions primarily on distributions from financial institutions, and their investment priorities depend on this data. So, banks are speeding up their results announcements to stay in sync with European banks and remain in the same “investment frame.”

Metlen: Results with an Eye on London and Investments

Speaking of financial results, the market’s attention is now focused on Metlen Energy & Metals, which is set to announce its 2024 financial results this Thursday. Investors are eagerly awaiting updates on its upcoming listing on the London Stock Exchange, new investments (gallium, etc.), and a potential dividend increase. Yesterday, the stock hit a seven-month high (€36.86), almost at its intraday peak. Given everything that happened last year, if Metlen manages to maintain the same EBITDA levels, it will be a real feat.

New Capital, New Shareholders, and New Offices for Europe Holdings

Europe Insurance is moving out of its offices on Filellinon Street and relocating to new, modern offices on Kifisias Avenue, near Psychiko. The extraordinary general meeting on March 6 will mark the beginning of major changes—not only authorizing a capital increase and a share buyback but also, reportedly, confirming the entry of well-known business names into the company’s shareholder structure. By the time the general meeting takes place, management hopes to have secured approval from the Bank of Greece for the participation of the Intracom Group, owned by Sokratis Kokkalis, in the promising private insurance sector through the pre-agreed acquisition of Europe Insurance.

Either They Were Overwhelmed or Just Fed Up

I don’t have much to add about yesterday’s meeting at the Ministry of Development with representatives of supermarkets and the food industry beyond what’s already been reported. However, I can mention some symbolic details—like how, at the end of the meeting, the businesspeople hurried out without any appetite for chit-chat or pleasantries. Only G. Giotis stopped briefly to say a couple of lines to journalists, along the lines of “we’re eating each other alive,” etc. The meeting lasted an hour and a half—longer than usual—so maybe they were just overwhelmed and eager to leave. Or maybe they faced serious pressure from the government, and let’s be honest, businesspeople aren’t used to being squeezed like that in these situations.

For the Camera and the Effect

Sunday night, in the rain, the coastal road near Alimos was blocked by a municipal vehicle. What happened? The mayor of Alimos, Andreas Kondylis, had called a Star TV crew and was giving statements, saying he was mobilizing in case the EYDAP sewage system cover opened and flooded the road with wastewater. To create a TV spectacle, he closed the road, inconveniencing drivers—despite there being no actual water leakage! He even told the channel he would be on alert all night in case the coastal road flooded. As soon as the TV crew left, he and the civil protection vehicle also disappeared, and the road was reopened to traffic. Moral of the story: some people live for the camera and the show.

Dagoumas’ Watch

During the Christmas holidays, the president of RAAEY, Thanasis Dagoumas, received an expensive gift from a business group—a wristwatch worth approximately €600. Since he apparently found it inappropriate to return it, he decided to raffle it off during RAAEY’s annual Vasilopita cake-cutting event, so that the watch would end up in the hands of one of the Regulatory Authority’s employees—which is exactly what happened.

Market Trends Shaped by Earnings and Geopolitical Developments

Even without “American assistance,” the Athens Stock Exchange managed to sustain its upward momentum, with the usual cavalry charge in the second half of the session. Trading volume remained below €100 million, closing at €99.7 million, with €11.7 million in block trades. Early in the session, liquidations in heavyweight index stocks didn’t spark much buying interest, leading the Banking Index to drop -0.77%, dragging the General Index down -0.37% below 1,600 points. However, after midday, buyers became more aggressive (having ensured there were no new sell orders from abroad) and started with the basics: National Bank (+1.57%) closed at €8.548, Eurobank (+0.65%) at €2.46, Piraeus (+0.39%) at €4.69, and Alpha stabilized at €1.87, despite early losses. Coca-Cola maintained its momentum (+1.09%) at €39.1, and OPAP (+1.01%) at €17.02. With these tailwinds, the General Index closed at the day’s high of 1,615.02 points, up +0.67%. From now on, the market’s compass will be company earnings—everyone is hoping for “pleasant” surprises—as well as geopolitical developments, which will influence the overall appetite for investment risk. Bond markets don’t seem convinced that new interest rate cuts are on the horizon. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.48%, the German bond to 2.47%, the French to 3.15%, and the Greek 10-year to 3.31%.

In London, “Smart” Housing Solutions Are Disappearing…

The housing crisis is just as severe in London. Outrageous rents, insane purchase prices, and an obvious lack of available housing. Some bold Londoners opted for unconventional solutions—moving into abandoned cathedrals, vacant police stations, or more commonly, empty office buildings. Dubbed “property guardians,” they paid reduced fees and agreed to bring life back to dead spaces. Applications for these vacant properties surged by 67% compared to two years ago. But things have changed. The owners of these abandoned buildings have now decided to put them to use, leading to a sudden spike in 28-day eviction notices. Meanwhile, there have been reports of collapsing ceilings and other hazards—like a dangerously installed shower positioned near electrical wiring. High-risk, high-reward, and highly uncertain living situations.

Private Debt in the U.S. Is Just as Problematic as Public Debt

Inflation has become a permanent feature of the American economy. The famed American consumer, who has driven growth for years, is showing the first signs of fatigue and financial strain. But the bigger problem is that U.S. households are drowning in debt. Credit card debt in the U.S. surged by $45 billion in Q4 2024, reaching a record-high $1.21 trillion. The average credit card debt per cardholder climbed to $7,236 in 2024. Simply put, more and more Americans are relying on credit (with an average APR of over 20%) to manage their finances. Over the past three years, credit card balances have ballooned by $430 billion. The rejection rate for credit card applications has also hit a shockingly high 22%.