A similar divide arises with the adoption of the woke agenda. Will trans athletes be allowed to compete as women in international competitions, particularly in the Olympics, following the uproar in Paris over the legitimacy—both legal and biological—of the dominant victories of two trans boxers? The Algerian Imane Khelif in the 66 kg category and Taiwan’s Lin Yu-ting in the 57 kg category stirred controversy with their overwhelming wins against their female opponents.

To what extent these issues are real and how serious the risk of division within the sports world is will be addressed at the International Olympic Committee Session, which will take place on Greek soil. On Tuesday, the 144th IOC Session will open with an inauguration ceremony in Ancient Olympia.

There, the “Immortals” will pay tribute to the visionary of the modern Olympic Games, French Baron Pierre de Coubertin, whose heart was posthumously placed in a marble column in Olympia, according to his wishes. Over the following three days, the main proceedings will take place slightly further south, at the iconic Costa Navarino resort. On Thursday, March 20, the 109 regular IOC members will elect the 10th president in the committee’s 131-year history.

This election comes at a time when the IOC has emerged from a prolonged internal crisis riddled with corruption scandals that severely damaged its global reputation and strained its ties with the international sports community. Now, with a 70% renewal in its ranks over the past decade, the organization is making a full comeback, strengthening its credibility and influence—at a time when international institutions, in general, are facing a decline in public trust and are being challenged by major global powers.

Who will emerge victorious from the “Immortals’ conclave” at the House of Events conference center at Costa Navarino? A luxury destination, it was deemed the ideal venue to host this gathering of the rich and famous of the sports world.

There are seven contenders for the presidency. Among them is Jordanian Prince Faisal Al Hussein, as well as two former Olympic gold medalists: former swimmer and now Zimbabwe’s Minister of Sports Kirsty Coventry, and Sebastian Coe, winner of the 1,500 meters in Moscow (1980) and Los Angeles (1984), currently serving as President of World Athletics.

Additionally, three presidents of international federations are in the race:

• Johan Eliasch, the Swedish-British billionaire and head of the International Ski Federation,
• David Lappartient of France, president of the International Cycling Union,
• Morinari Watanabe of Japan, president of the International Gymnastics Federation.

Finally, a name linked to IOC history, Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr., the organization’s vice president and son of the late Juan Antonio Samaranch, the legendary former IOC president.

The new president will be whoever secures at least 50% of the votes from the 109 “Immortals”, meaning a minimum of 55 votes. The election will follow a sequential voting process until a winner emerges.

The Shadow of Trump

Over Ancient Olympia and Costa Navarino, however, in the coming days, the shadow of Donald Trump will likely linger. On the two issues dominating the public debate among the seven candidates regarding the challenges the IOC must address—the participation of trans athletes and Russia’s role in the Games—the new American president has already made his stance clear.

One of the first executive orders he signed prohibits transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports. Titled “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports”, it threatens to cut federal funding for any school that allows trans women or girls to compete in female sports competitions. He also instructed the State Department to pressure the IOC to implement similar changes internationally, enforcing criteria based solely on biological sex rather than gender identity.

On the other hand, Russia has been banned from the Olympic Games and other major international competitions since 2018. Initially, due to the prolonged doping scandal, it was excluded from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea—a ban that was then extended to the subsequent Summer Games in Tokyo. However, many Russian athletes were allowed to compete without their national colors and without hearing their national anthem when winning a gold medal, under the designation of “Neutral Athletes” (AINs – Individual Neutral Athletes), a program conceived by outgoing IOC President Thomas Bach.

Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which shifted the reason for exclusion ahead of last year’s Paris Games—this time extended to Belarus as well due to its stance on the war. Once again, the IOC allowed Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in Paris, under the added condition that they be screened for any signs of supporting the war.

The issue has since remained at the heart of internal discussions within the IOC and international sports federations. And it is crucial to see whether the “Immortals” will now take into account the change in the U.S. stance toward Russia. Naturally, there are other challenges as well. The IOC stands at a crossroads, facing decisions on issues such as promoting transparency and democracy within its ranks, doping and corruption policies, and funding for athletes, among others.

A Three-Way Battle

The two issues mentioned above were at the top of every candidate’s agenda. At the end of January, they presented their positions before the IOC General Assembly in Lausanne.

Sebastian Coe, a legend for track and field fans of the ’80s, took the hardest-line stance, setting the tone for the exclusion of trans athletes. His stance can be summarized as: clean athletes, clean competitions, full separation of the two sexes. “Only biological women should be allowed to compete in women’s categories,” he stated, arguing that fairness takes precedence over inclusion.

Additionally, Coe has been firmly against the return of Russian (and Belarusian) athletes to the Games as long as the “Ukrainian wound” remains open. Since 2023, he has ruled out their participation in the Paris Games, even under the AINs umbrella, stating: “I am not neutral. Sports must not find itself on the wrong side of history.”

His central motto: “The athlete at the center.” In other words, without athletes, there is no sport—let alone the Olympic Games. Therefore, the IOC’s actions should prioritize the interests of the athletes, ensuring they receive additional revenues from the Games. Regarding the committee’s operations, he advocates for increased participation of all members in decision-making and execution—opposing the “one-man show” leadership style that Bach promoted during his tenure.

On the Contrary, Samaranch Jr. Shifts Position

Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr., the No. 2 of outgoing president Thomas Bach, had previously supported unrestricted participation of trans athletes in the Olympic Games as IOC vice president. However, he is now backtracking, calling for clear scientific evidence to confirm the complete biological distinction of gender. Additionally, he is implicitly in favor of Russia’s conditional return to international competitions.

Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr., IOC vice president and son of the late former president. His “heavy” last name makes him widely recognizable, but at the same time, it makes him vulnerable to accusations of nepotism and dynastic privilege.

Kirsty Coventry’s Diplomatic Approach

Kirsty Coventry, for her part, surprised many by avoiding taking a stance, despite pressure. Regarding the controversial boxing matches in Paris, she merely commented that it was something the IOC “could not have foreseen.” She added, in rather vague terms, that “the IOC must bring all federations together and address the issue collectively, creating an environment where every athlete feels safe.”

Likewise, on the issue of Russia, her manifesto is just as generic: “Geopolitics inevitably intersects with sports, presenting both risks and opportunities for the Olympic Movement. Recent conflicts and shifting alliances have underscored the need for a fundamental yet adaptable, complex approach. The IOC must remain neutral—this is its strength—and must not align itself with political agendas.”

Kirsty Coventry, currently Zimbabwe’s Minister of Sports and a former swimming champion with three medals in Athens and four in Beijing, is the chosen candidate of outgoing IOC President Thomas Bach.

Pros and Cons

Having served as the head of the Organizing Committee for the 2012 London Olympics, as well as a former Member of Parliament, Coe is widely considered the most qualified successor to Bach. However, whether his influence within the “Immortals” is strong enough to make him an undisputed frontrunner remains uncertain. Many believe his chances are roughly equal to those of Coventry, who enjoys Bach’s full backing.

The outgoing president has been conducting a behind-the-scenes campaign both in support of Coventry and against Coe, with whom he has frequently clashed in the past. His weapon is the direct influence he holds over the 75 IOC members appointed during his tenure since 2015.

Lurking in the background, however, is Samaranch, whose level of support among the 109 voting members remains unclear. According to many insiders familiar with the “secrets” of the IOC, the Bach succession is a three-way race, with the 66-year-old Samaranch starting on nearly equal footing with the other two.

Each of the candidates carries at least one significant drawback.

• Coe’s Achilles’ heel is the age limit, which is set at 70 years. He is already 68. The rules allow a special exemption to extend a president’s term by four additional years, but this would limit his tenure to just six years instead of eight, without the possibility of an extra term.
• Two other candidates face similar issues: Samaranch and Watanabe, both 66 years old.
• Additionally, while Coe is highly experienced and successful in sports administration, he is also known for being strongly confrontational and rigid in his views.

If Coventry is elected, she will be the first woman and the first African representative to lead the IOC. However, at just 42 years old, despite her governmental experience, she represents a country still haunted by the “sins” of the past—a legacy of 30 years of Mugabe’s dictatorship, a regime synonymous with authoritarianism, corruption, and poverty.

For Samaranch, his greatest strength is also his biggest weakness: his “heavy” last name. It gives him wider recognition, and within the IOC, many believe he enjoys a certain undetermined level of support because of it. However, at the same time, it makes him an easy target for accusations of nepotism and dynastic favoritism.

Samaranch believes that Bach built a governance system within the IOC capable of managing complex situations, but that it must adapt to the fast pace of social, political, and technological changes. He is also strongly opposed to monetary prizes at the Olympics, a stance that puts him in direct opposition to Coe, who believes that financial rewards contribute to ensuring the well-being of athletes.