Turkey entered a new phase of political turmoil early this morning following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor and Erdoğan’s expected opponent in the next presidential elections, Ekrem İmamoğlu.

According to Turkish media, İmamoğlu has already been taken to the Istanbul Police Headquarters for interrogation.

The mayor of Istanbul was arrested following two separate investigations by the prosecutor’s office. The first concerns alleged collaboration with the PKK within the framework of an agreement allowing the Kurdish HDK party to participate in the municipal elections of March 2024. The second involves the operation of a criminal organization accused of extorting businessmen and laundering money through Medya A.Ş., an organization affiliated with the Istanbul Municipality.

The indictment against İmamoğlu and more than 100 arrested individuals—including his associates, businessmen, and artists—includes the following charges, depending on the case:

• Leading a criminal organization
• Participation in a criminal organization
• Fraud
• Bribery
• Illegal possession of personal data
• Corruption and embezzlement of public funds
• Rigging public tenders

Pro-government Turkish media reported that the investigation began after the emergence of a video showing the president of Istanbul Municipality’s sports organization, Fatih Keleş, a close associate of İmamoğlu, counting stacks of cash.

In a video recorded inside his home before his arrest, İmamoğlu declared that he would not surrender and would continue his fight against Erdoğan.

“A handful of people are trying to overthrow the will of our nation and have sent hundreds of police officers to my home, abusing my beloved police force. The oppression is immense, but I want to tell you that I will not bow down. I love you all. I entrust my fate to the nation. Let it be known that I will stand firm in my position. I will continue to fight against the individual and the policies that are driving this process,” he said defiantly.

Opposition Denounces a Coup

Given that İmamoğlu’s arrest came just hours after his degree was revoked—a prerequisite for running for the presidency—the reaction from the leader of the opposition CHP party was furious, branding the incident a coup.

İmamoğlu is expected to be officially nominated on Sunday as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for the next presidential elections, whenever they take place. While the next election is officially scheduled for 2028, speculation has been growing in Turkey that President Erdoğan, who has been in power for over two decades, may call for early elections.

“The act of making decisions in the name of the nation, replacing the will of the people, or using force to obstruct it is a coup. At this moment, violence is being used to prevent the nation from choosing its next president. We are witnessing an attempted coup against Turkey’s next president. The true power lies with the people, and in the end, the people will prevail. We will not back down. The will of the people will triumph once again,” CHP leader Özgür Özel posted on X.

Curfew and Social Media Blackout

Erdoğan’s government was quick to respond with a ban on gatherings and demonstrations in Istanbul for the next four days—until Sunday, March 23—while reports also emerged of a social media blackout.

From early morning, users of X, TikTok, and YouTube reported difficulties logging into their accounts, refreshing content, or streaming videos.

According to an announcement by the Istanbul Governor’s Office, all meetings, demonstrations, and events are banned from March 19 to Sunday, March 23. The stated purpose of the ban, according to the announcement, is to maintain public order and prevent potential provocations.

Stock Market in Freefall

The first consequence of İmamoğlu’s arrest was economic, as the Istanbul Stock Exchange opened with a sharp decline of 6.87%.

The benchmark Borsa Istanbul 100 index dropped by 6.9% at the opening, triggering a temporary trading halt under circuit-breaker rules. Upon resumption, stocks remained down 4.6%.

Turkey’s 10-year government bonds also plummeted, pushing yields up by 175 basis points to 29.94%. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira fell by more than 5% against the US dollar. The losses were the worst globally among comparable asset classes.