Hello, let’s start with the pleasant things—whatever we say, in two weeks it’s Easter, and then of course comes May Day, and gradually we’re entering the summer season, which thankfully won’t have time to be ruined by Trump’s measures and the global recession. Those effects, if the tariffs remain so high, unfortunately we’ll see from next year. For now, the turmoil continues internationally, and by all indications, it will last a long time since no one knows where this unbelievable mess with the tariffs will end up—according to experts, it will mostly hit the American economy. We’ll have some indication of Europe’s reaction this week, though.

Chaos indeed, but a good thing for K.M.

In Athens, I assume like in almost all world capitals, the government is monitoring developments, speaking with other European countries, but naturally, they can only speculate—you understand that. What is likely to start taking effect though, and maybe we’ll see it reflected in the polls later, is the entirely predictable trend that in times of crisis and uncertainty, people always turn to the most reasonable politician and the most coherent and organized political formation. In this sense, Mitsotakis is once again lucky in a way, because even if his government has made mistakes, suffered wear and tear (and corruption…), can you imagine little Zoe governing together with Nikolaos and Famellos in Greece at this moment? Of course, it’s still early, but the atmosphere of turmoil always benefits the incumbent government, especially when there’s no proper politician for discontented citizens to bet on.

Polls

I asked my source again the other day if anything has changed in the polls. I don’t see anything striking—after adjustments, ND is at European election levels, that is around 28%, little Zoe (who yesterday asked for Mitsotakis to be jailed) is at 15%, and little Nikolaos is steadily at 12%, or actually not so steadily because he’s trending downward. It will be interesting to see how the polls move as the crisis deepens and the theories about the “xylene” weaken.

Tempi – The disinformation…

Speaking of Tempi, perhaps you’ve been following the developments since yesterday—if we didn’t have such a tragedy, it could almost become a comedy, with foreign universities one after another claiming to have been misled by what’s being said about xylene, toulolia, and generally the origin of the fireball. In recent days—but especially since yesterday—a clearer and more truthful picture is starting to emerge of what happened that fateful night. Allow me a comment: the fact that there weren’t illegal cargoes, landfills, etc., doesn’t mean that if the Hellenic Railways Organization (OSE) had functioned even minimally well, the accident might not have happened, despite the undeniable tragic human error. Nor did the government perform well after the accident—it did little or almost nothing to improve rail safety. But the public’s rage and anger were based mainly on lies about the…xylene, monstrous fabrications that those who misinformed Mitsotakis at Maximos Mansion should have known were false before sending him off…to Sroiter, almost ready to accept all those crazy theories. Because the truth and all the facts about the events were available even before the interview—the judiciary had them, and naturally the prime minister, even informally, I think was entitled to have at least a rough idea of what was going on in such a serious matter before taking a position.

Who brought down Mitsotakis?

So I ask, who was it—or who were they—that told Mitsotakis and panicked him with all those theories that are now being resoundingly debunked by evidence that already existed? The Dedes report, photographic material showing open wagons with no space for storing flammable or other materials, testimonies and statements from experts or officers who were at the scene of the accident—all of this, absolutely all of it, is included in the case file. And when all this is revealed in two months from now with the conclusion of the investigation, the tragicomedy will be complete. I don’t know and don’t care who set him up (without malice, of course). My question is theoretical, but the result was that poor handling inflamed the conspiracy theories and exposed the prime minister to such a degree that the government almost fell. Let me clarify, though, that the product of this misinformation and misjudgment did not come in any way from Floridis, who knows the case very well but is not asked much because he doesn’t belong to that “inner circle.”

M.M.

Longtime digital media manager for the prime minister, Eric Parks, is leaving M.M., and the job is being taken over by Nikos Romanos, the ND press representative. Also, there’s a discussion happening about the Sunday posts by Mitsotakis on Facebook—to make them shorter and more concise, since these long posts are hard to read. Meanwhile, Hatzidakis is getting organized within the Maximos Mansion and is focusing mainly on the output of the financial ministries. By nature, Hatzidakis is not confrontational or combative with his colleagues, and that helps cooperation. Still, I wonder once again why there need to be so many centers of power within Maximos doing the same work. The results will tell.

The emirs, the pitiful…

Objectively, last Friday’s meeting of the “blue” parliamentary group was milder compared to the internal party climate. There were, of course, a few pointed remarks—like those from Dimitris Markopoulos and Vasilis Ypsilantis, who spoke of MP “emirs” or Illuminati who have secured permanent ministerial posts and of the pitiful ones who are stuck eternally on the parliamentary bench… but that was the extent of it. And let’s not forget that these comments are more about personal ambition than about the overall trajectory of the government and the party. However, this silence shouldn’t lull Maximos into complacency. Quite the opposite, I’d say! I remember the bailout era, when during controversial votes, it was the silent and withdrawn MPs who ultimately broke ranks—not the ones who barked, as Zoe (there’s only one) puts it.

…the silent ones…

There are dissenters, the discontented, or the concerned even today, but they’ve chosen silent protest. You’ll tell me, how can the prime minister get the message if his MPs don’t express it? They say they said everything during the last parliamentary group meeting, last summer right after the European elections. Back then, they say, there was a heated but honest dialogue in which it was pointed out that same-sex marriage, the taxation of freelancers, and signs of ministerial arrogance, among other things, widened the ideological and emotional gap between the government and the MPs, and by extension, the party’s base. They argue that despite the promises made back then, not much has changed, so they see no point in repeating themselves.

…and the Ocean’s Eleven

Looking through my old notes in my reporter’s notebook, I saw that many of the MPs who had voiced criticism last July after the European elections now form the well-known group of the “11” who “strike” by submitting questions. I’m referring to E. Stylianidis—who plays the role of informal team leader—G. Vlachos, M. Chryssochoidis, M. Charakopoulos, Th. Karaoglou, A. Katsaniotis, G. Andrianos, among others. I hear that the latest salvo was organized while the parliamentary group was in session. The 11 signatories of the question regarding unemployment programs were all sitting together in the northern and center-right seats of the chamber, passing around the white envelope containing the text to gather “signatures.” The activity didn’t go unnoticed by the prime minister’s close aides, since it unfolded almost openly before their eyes.

Why “11”

As I’ve written before, the “blue” team of “11” remains constant in number but is refreshed in terms of the MPs who sign. I asked why they’re stuck on “11” and was referred to football terminology. Essentially, they want to “play ball.” “We’ve got substitutes too in case someone gets a red card,” they say with a grin. In any case, the prime minister has no intention of ejecting them; on the contrary, he acknowledges that they fill the gap in constructive opposition that PASOK, SYRIZA, and the other forces fail to provide. He gave them credit and assured them he’ll continue to adopt their valid suggestions and correct the wrongs they point out. I’ve also heard that the next question will break the tradition of “11.” It will be signed by more, as the number of MPs wanting to participate has exceeded all expectations.

The side notes

Two final comments from the parliamentary group session stood out to me. The first concerns the proposal by North Athens MP D. Kairidis to add a “checkbox” on national election ballots so that voters can declare how many preference votes (“crosses”) they used, as was done with postal voting in the European elections. I’m told the motivation behind the proposal is the fear that “crosses” might be added to a specific fellow candidate. The second involves the revelation by young MP Fanis Pappas, who told the prime minister that behind the “false reports” against OPEKEPE are people “who once served the Organization and were favored by the party—and by you, Mr. President.”

Venizelos vs. Alivizatos… Oh boy

I don’t know how many of you have been following this, but I’m letting you know that in recent days, the scholarly clash via published articles between Evangelos Venizelos and Nikos Alivizatos, over how Parliament’s preliminary investigation into Tempi was conducted, has taken on personal overtones… The kind of spicy content that President Vaggelis used to deliver in the good old days. “Mr. Alivizatos believes… that my arguments during the 2001 constitutional revision were ‘out of sync.’ Clearly, he wants to always be ‘in sync’…” he writes in just one excerpt from a full-page article in Sunday’s “Kathimerini,” which is entirely—absolutely entirely—dedicated to dismantling Mr. Alivizatos, both personally and academically. But he saves the best for last: “The broader issue, of course, is Mr. Alivizatos’ declared conflation between the existing Constitution (de constitutione lata) and a future, better Constitution we’d like to have (de constitutione ferenda). He believes we can interpret the existing Constitution as if it already includes what we’d prefer it to include. Fortunately, science and jurisprudence do not accept that.” Hilarious!

On Friday (?) the final decision on Triantopoulos

Since I mentioned the Preliminary Investigation Committee, let me tell you that the majority’s report, which recommends the referral of Triantopoulos to the Judicial Council, is ready and will be presented at today’s final session of the committee. What remains pending, of course, is for it to be signed by all the “blue” MPs who participated in the investigative process. I mention this because I hear that in recent days, Chalkida MP Thanasis Zebilis has disappeared and is not answering his phone. In any case, the final decisions will likely be made in the Plenary Session this coming Friday. At this point, let me make a side note—an estimation: the bickering we’re witnessing in public between expert witnesses and scientists of questionable credibility regarding the causes of the explosion (behaviors that suggest conflicting interests and directly insult the memory of the victims), I wouldn’t be surprised to see it occur among opposition parties as well.

In a state of shock

Just as the Greek government is speaking with other governments in the EU about the tariffs we mentioned above, so too have the banks utilized every source and connection they have across the Atlantic to understand where things are heading, how developments may unfold, etc. However, they find that their interlocutors are in a state of shock and are unable to provide estimates for the markets and their future trajectory. The Americans are telling them that they consider it almost certain that the Fed will proceed with interest rate cuts, ignoring the serious threat of rising inflation, because if the Fed does not comply, its leadership can easily be replaced. They are not panicking about the two-day collapse of the Dow because it had reached a historic all-time high, but they are particularly worried about what will happen with the other markets in which they have invested. They consider it very likely that China will make aggressive trade moves in the old continent to offset the losses from the U.S. market. Analysts are receiving serious concerns from multinationals, which are anticipating a chain reaction of impacts in various markets. As for the EU, the estimate is that the majority of ECB Council members want to halt interest rate cuts—at least for now, until it becomes clear what comes next. However, if the Fed proceeds with further cuts, it is entirely unclear how the ECB will respond. That’s the situation abroad, and obviously the state of affairs leaves no room for optimism regarding the Athens Stock Exchange, especially as mutual fund sales for the liquidation of units they received are expected to begin today.

HERON – NRG: Drafting the shareholder agreement

Despite the negative climate in the markets, on the Athens Stock Exchange we have stocks with a story and attractive prospects that, once things calm down a bit, will differentiate themselves from the broader market. There are also interesting deals maturing that are creating new strong players, such as the upcoming merger of HERON and NRG. The information is that the shareholders’ agreement is currently being drafted, that is, the agreement between the two main shareholders.

Joint team of Finance Ministry-SEV for super-depreciations

In the first meeting between the Finance Minister K. Pierrakakis and SEV, they agreed to create a joint team to examine the issue of super-depreciations in order to trigger more investments. At SEV, they believe that because the minister makes quick decisions, he will provide solutions to overcome many bureaucratic obstacles. Note that at the introductory meeting with the new Finance Minister, besides Spyros Theodoropoulos from SEV, those present included Alpha Bank CEO Vassilis Psaltis, AEGEAN’s Eftichios Vassilakis, Metro’s Aris Panteliadis, Andreas Siamisis of Hellenic Energy, Miltos Veremis, and Rania Aikaterinari.

Underwriters will justify valuations for new listings on the ASE

The Hellenic Capital Market Commission is adopting a different practice for new listings on the Athens Stock Exchange. From now on, underwriters will appear before the Commission’s Board in order to explain and justify how they arrived at the specific valuation level. It is a useful and necessary measure, provided it is implemented strictly, because recent listings have not gone well and the IPO market—regardless of tariffs—has “slowed down” and become more difficult.

John Paulson: The big winner on the ASE

And I return to the issue of tariffs, because with the sky falling on our heads, more than €11 billion was “lost” from the Stock Exchange’s capitalization. €2 billion is due to the delisting of TERNA Energy from the trading board, and €9 billion to Trump’s tariffs. However, it appears that in the midst of the major storm, there is clearly one winner—and that’s none other than John Paulson. The “irrational” and groundless selling of shares in Piraeus first and Alpha later, since mid-February, now have an explanation. Donald Trump’s close friend “sensed something” about what was to follow after the tariff announcement and made sure to liquidate his positions. Just as other prominent investors did—e.g., Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, who on February 20 sold 866,361 shares of JPM at $269.83/share, for a total of $234 million. Two days later, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it held a record $334 billion in cash. The “Oracle of Omaha” increased his cash reserves by $145.2 billion. Today, Paulson (Trump’s almost Treasury Secretary), Dimon, and Buffett have the ability to make major placements in stocks that have been battered by the President’s policy.

The meeting at Maximos Mansion

Today’s meeting of the Government Council for Economic Policy at the Maximos Mansion will not remain on the surface of the tariff impacts and the clearly limited immediate effects on the Greek economy. The economic team has already prepared and will present various scenarios for how major European economies (Germany, Italy, Britain, and France)—which are key tourism clients of our country and significant investors in the Greek real estate market—will be affected. The government will try to boost investment attraction by injecting €1 billion through the Development Law, linking incentives and tax breaks with job creation in border regions. More details will be given by Kyriakos Pierrakakis on Wednesday, when he travels to Delphi for the Economic Forum. On Thursday and Friday, the European finance ministers will convene in Warsaw to discuss a coordinated response in the Eurogroup and Ecofin. On Friday, the bill to strengthen the Capital Market and the important changes to the Extrajudicial Debt Settlement Mechanism will be submitted for a vote by Parliament’s Plenary.

The stock market between two worlds

Regardless of short-term fluctuations in the stock market, professional investors are focusing their attention on tomorrow’s FTSE announcement, which is expected to provide a specific date for the inclusion of the Athens Stock Exchange in the “developed markets” category. By that date—it is hoped—MSCI will also place the Greek Stock Exchange on a watch list for an upgrade to developed markets. This means that for the next 6 to 9 months, institutional funds that passively follow indices will both invest in our upgrade and not withdraw from the Athens Stock Exchange, as it will remain on the borderline as an Emerging Market. All this is happening in a market where the General Index has returned +8.7% since the start of the year, the FTSE 25 high-cap index +9.89%, the Banking Index +13.52%, and the FTSEM mid-cap index +6.19%. Market conditions today favor new money entering the exchange, while those already positioned will be seeking solutions for portfolio restructuring.

SYRIZA and the Bill for the Capital Market

In the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Economic Affairs, the debate over the Government’s bill heated up last Tuesday. At one point, SYRIZA spokesperson Dimitris Mamoulakis accused the Government of scandalously outsourcing the drafting of the bill to “various law firms” because it was “incapable of drafting the regulatory framework itself.” He even submitted the relevant expenditure from the “Diavgeia” (Transparency) platform. In response, Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis submitted documents showing that SYRIZA’s Finance Minister, Yanis Dragasakis, had assigned the same law firms with identical fees to draft the Bill for the Hellenic Development Bank. However, back then, it was not considered a scandal—just a regular Tuesday. Incidentally, the same legal team had also drafted the framework for the integration of the Cyprus Stock Exchange into the European single market.

Resurrection Expected After Easter by Qualco

The turmoil in the capital markets has slowed down Qualco’s steps toward listing its shares on the Athens Stock Exchange’s Main Market. The Group has already submitted its Prospectus to the Capital Markets Commission for approval, with an ambitious valuation of €530 million. The company believes the market disturbance will stabilize after Easter, and its diverse activities will help mitigate the investment risks created. From 2019 to 2024, Qualco showed strong financial performance, with a 29% increase in turnover and a 39% increase in operating profits, compounded annually.

And the PotUS Unfazed Plays Golf

Even in the most challenging times for the U.S. economy, President Donald Trump maintains his favorite hobby—playing golf. Early this past week, he had another “tee time” at his private golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida. This marked his 14th visit to the course since his inauguration on January 20. Overall, he has played golf 18 times at one of his courses, meaning he’s spent over 25% of his days in office playing golf. According to the Government Accountability Office, the total cost of these “golden” outings has already surpassed $26 million. This is the true “Golden Ball,” not the one awarded to Messi, but the golf ball rolling on the world’s most expensive grass.