Greetings, I am writing again to express that the world is in chaos, and here in Greece we mind our own business as the developments in international markets remind one of the first days of the international lockdown during the pandemic or the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. However, before we engage with the farce involving charlatans and irrelevant so-called experts with the EODASAM that received 4.5 million euros from the Greek government but did not pay universities for the so-called research on fire safety and the incomprehensible figures at Maximos who pushed Mitsotakis to adopt the nonsense of some Lakafosis, I must say the following: The biggest victims of this humiliating debacle that has been unfolding for three months are the overwhelming majority of the families of the victims. Not the prominent individuals making political and TV careers, but the silent grieving majority of the families. Imagine being a mother or father, brother or sister, grandmother or grandfather of a young child and watching various absurd “experts” or politicians in televised trials telling you that your child was burned alive, buried for the sake of smugglers, etc. etc. This is tragic for the entire society and of course for the opposition parties as well as for the government, which didn’t know which way was up. Who exactly keeps Mitsotakis in a “glass enclosed room” and supposedly “provides” him with correct information about what is happening around him? At least for the trains and the progress of the EODASAM report, this was the case.

Papadimitriou

They are wondering in the government about Papadimitriou from EODASAM, who it is obvious has suffered a psychological meltdown and comes out saying probably incomprehensible things, apart from the very interesting threats he allegedly received from Belgian Bart Accu of ERA. Despite his objections, however, Papadimitriou signed and defended the report that was issued and now plays ignorant after being abandoned by Ghent and Pisa. However, the government appears somewhat hesitant to “dismiss” him, while he himself says that he will not resign (for now), but he will be investigated by the Athens Prosecutor’s Office.

Kyranakis

Perhaps the most desperate figure in the current situation is Deputy Minister Kyranakis. He is called upon to manage not only this mess but also the Papadimitriou-Accu slaughter, while supervising EODASAM and simultaneously having to communicate with ERA, which on Thursday will acquire new management. And now the minister is awaiting answers regarding whether the universities of Ghent and Pisa had contracts with the Europeans, and whether the EDAPO of Lakafosis had a contract with ERA, as Papadimitriou “rips his clothes” claiming that these people did not have a contract with EODASAM.

He had approved the safety of Hellenic Train

ERA, which a month before the accident gave a five-year safety certificate to Hellenic Train. And which had been overseeing RAS since 2019 as an Independent Safety Authority. Moreover, the president of EODASAM was previously and for years a legal advisor to RAS… Additionally, ERA had completed its inspection of RAS in December 2022. Two months before the accident! The inspection had started in February 2022 and finished at the end of November 2022. Note: RAS, as an independent railway safety authority, is inspected and accountable to ERA. Not to the minister.

Covid-19 times at the Stock Exchange

The Greek Stock Exchange plunged yesterday, as did all markets, which now resemble the Covid-19 era over the past three days. Athens coordinated with the “bloodbath” caused by Trump’s tariffs and the whole web surrounding them. Almost 120 points were lost yesterday by the General Index, recording a loss of 7.43%, the largest in five years. The next negative milestones are in March 2020 with the imposition of the lockdown due to the pandemic (7.58% drop on 23/3/2020, -12.24% on 16/3/2020, and -13.39% on 9/3/2020). In the domestic market, 7.94 billion euros disappeared on Monday, and 14.99 billion euros over the last three sessions. And all of this just hours before the critical announcements from FTSE Russell about a potential upgrade of the ASE to developed markets.

Rating despite Holy Friday by S&P

And since we are talking about FTSE Russell and the possible upgrade of the ASE to developed markets, it should be noted that the next big evaluation for Greece’s creditworthiness by S&P Global is scheduled for April 18. There were estimates in the market that the announcements would be postponed since April 18 is Holy Friday, and this year’s Easter coincides for both Orthodox and Catholics, even though they use different calendars (Julian and Gregorian, respectively). Additionally, European markets, Wall Street, and bond markets will be closed on April 18. In communication with newmoney, S&P Global made it known that the announcement of Greece’s evaluation will proceed as planned on April 18. The decision by the American agency will come at a crucial time, with the tariff war declared by D. Trump having radically changed the economic environment and is considered particularly important, as there are forecasts for a new upgrade of Greece to a BBB scale with stable prospects. This would be an upgrade to the level to which DBRS and Scope had already raised our country, but this time it would involve one of the major rating agencies. It should be noted that S&P was the first of the three major American agencies to restore Greece’s economy to investment grade in October 2023. A month ago, Moody’s, the last of all the rating agencies, also gave Greece the investment grade, upgrading its creditworthiness to Baa3 with stable prospects.

Investment banks “froze” the deals

Not only in Greece but across Europe as well. All the – unsigned and uncompleted – mergers, acquisitions, and alliance agreements have been frozen. This is expected as investment banks are currently unable to make serious and well-supported valuations of companies and agreements that were previously in progress. All values are being re-examined under the microscope, prospects are being rewritten, and capabilities are being re-evaluated. Until a new equilibrium point is found in global markets, the big deals that were being discussed in Europe will wait for the definitive change in the scenario before they can be reinitiated.

Markets and cryptocurrencies without brakes

Exactly 33 trading sessions ago, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at 6,147 points. Within a month, by last Friday, the index had lost more than 1,300 points, in 32 trading sessions. Yesterday, Monday, the plunge continued. At the same time, cryptocurrencies, which some considered a “safe anti-systemic refuge,” are collapsing. In just a few hours, $200 billion evaporated from their market capitalization. Cryptocurrencies have erased nearly all the gains they made after Trump’s electoral victory in early November. Bitcoin even briefly fell below $75,000 for the first time since November 7. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies shrank by about 11% to $2.5 trillion, roughly the same level as before Trump’s victory, according to CoinGecko data. Over the weekend, markets were expecting some development, a retreat, a willingness to compromise and negotiate. Instead, they heard triumphant statements from officials about how many phone calls President Trump received from leaders around the world while playing golf. In the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, which attempts to measure investor sentiment, only 21.8% of investors saw the steep drop as an opportunity for purchases (bullish). 61.9% of investors predicted further market declines, and this percentage is the third highest in the history of the AAII Sentiment Survey. Only in March 2009 and October 1990 were higher levels of downward sentiment recorded. On Friday, between 9:30 a.m. ET and 12:00 p.m. ET, retail investors sold stocks worth $1.5 trillion. This was the largest wave of sales in a 2.5-hour period in the history of the U.S. stock market.

Transactions without logic. Only with emotion

What happened yesterday on Wall Street is very characteristic. It clearly affected all European markets and Athens. The session in New York began with a significant decline. Suddenly, rumors (and headlines) circulated that Trump was considering a three-month suspension of tariffs to allow room for negotiations. The indices perked up, moving into positive territory. The rumors and headlines were denied, and Wall Street returned to the red… In Athens, there was no reason for such emotional fluctuations. What seemed cheap 15 days ago was evaluated yesterday as an extremely expensive exaggeration. The General Index moved steadily in negative territory from the start of the session. It even fell to 1,455.08 points (-8.92%). At the close of the session, it climbed 20 points to 1,475.04 (-7.67%) and finished trading at 1,478.92 points, with daily losses of -7.43%. For the third consecutive session, the Athens Stock Exchange showed no resistance to the hasty, anxious, and emotionally charged sellers. The high value of transactions indicates that some are taking advantage of the significant drop to build investment positions for the future, but without rushing. Yesterday, the transaction value exceeded… €403.2 million (!) with just €11 million in packages. The cumulative losses of the General Index in the last 3 disastrous sessions have now surpassed -13.4%, while the total losses reached -18.5%. It makes no sense to refer to specific prices and valuations, as they do not reflect any economic reality or dynamic… It is worth noting, however, that despite Trump’s triumphal claims about “falling interest rates and inflation,” the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose again above 4% (4.06%), while the 2-year stood at 3.65%. The 10-year Greek Government Bond offers a yield of 3.49%, the German 2.62%, and the French 3.36%…

Absences at the DEH Unveiling Ceremony

The DEH stock was particularly tested during yesterday’s session with aggressive sell-offs, but that’s already been covered, so let’s focus on another topic: the attendance and absences at the unveiling of DEH’s investment plan in Western Macedonia. The Stassis plan, which, as Kyriakos Mitsotakis said, makes a difference in the development program and is a game changer for both DEH and the region, was applauded by Deputy Finance Minister Nikos Papathanasis, who handled the Fair Development Transition project, and the new Deputy Minister of Energy, Nikos Tsafos. However, absent was the Minister of Environment and Energy, Stavros Papastavrou, while Alexandra Sdoukou was present, who seems to be gearing up for her candidacy as a member of parliament in the upcoming elections. Also invited were officials from the renewable energy and construction sectors, such as Kostas Mitzalis of AVAX, who is constructing DEH projects, and Panagiotis Kontis, the man of Giorgos Sakellaris of Ameresco in Greece.

Trump’s Policy and Greek Businesses

Ameresco, in a joint venture with other companies (AKTOR, Res Invest), has won significant renewable energy projects in Western Macedonia. However, unlike the Greek market, which is gaining momentum, there is skepticism in the US about the next steps. The company has a significant portfolio of projects to implement in the next two years, but it is directly impacted by Trump’s declared policy to halt the progress toward green development and measures to combat climate change, which is slowing down energy upgrade projects and sustainable development initiatives where the company is a leader. The new reality in the US had an immediate impact on Ameresco’s stock, which on November 5 – the day of the US presidential elections – was trading at $35.40. Today, the stock price has dropped to $10.80, a loss of around 68%, with its market capitalization shrinking to $568 million. This is despite the fact that the company reported a 29% increase in revenue last year, reaching $1.77 billion, with an EBITDA of $225 million.

Volkswagen Sales Drop…Hit the Piraeus Tower

What could the Piraeus Tower have in common with Volkswagen’s sales and an American listed company on the Nasdaq? In a globalized market (at least as conditions were last year), this connection is indeed possible, and this was precisely what Dimitris Andriopoulos, CEO of DIMAND, mentioned during an update to the Institutional Investors’ Association. He started by noting that in business, despite planning, one can never know where challenges might come from: “The Tower was 100% leased last summer. However, with the drop in Volkswagen car sales, we lost a tenant (the American company listed on Nasdaq) that was planning to set up its European call center for the automotive industry in the Tower. We have now restored part of the loss, and the Tower will soon, in 3-4 months, be fully leased again. This is why we are at the stage where we can negotiate the divestment from the project.” Andriopoulos gave this example in response to criticism regarding the delayed sale of the Piraeus Tower, which has an exit value of around €120-135 million. This is part of a long-term lease agreement between the DIMAND-Prodea-EBRD consortium and the Municipality of Piraeus, which receives over €1 million annually in rent and has a book value of €150 million for the Tower. Notably, this project is the first large-scale project for the company with more than one tenant, and there are currently three interested parties. Andriopoulos mentioned that the divestment will take place in 2025, along with the former MINION (commercial parts, not residential) and the building in Kato Patissia, which has been leased to ELTA and is also ready for sale. By the way, one of the major tenants in the commercial part of the Piraeus Tower, ZARA, which will celebrate one year of operation in May, ranks among the top 3 highest-performing stores for the Inditex group.

Trump’s Records on the S&P 500

On the “Black Monday” of the distant year 2008, when the global financial system’s credibility crisis erupted, the S&P 500 index plummeted with a loss of -9%. However, that was not the largest drop in the history of the U.S. stock market. In March 2020, when the world entered the COVID quarantine, the S&P 500 lost a staggering -12% in a single session. Twenty years earlier, in April 2000, when the “dot-com bubble” unexpectedly burst, the S&P 500 experienced a -5.8% drop. A few months later, in September 2001, after the attack on the “twin towers” in New York, the S&P 500 dropped -4.9%. There was also a significant slump in August 2011 when the U.S. economy’s credit rating was downgraded by S&P for the first time in 70 years. The S&P 500 lost -6.7% in just one session. And then came Trump. Last Friday, April 4, 2024, when markets realized the magnitude and extent of the tariffs, the S&P 500 crashed, closing with a loss of -5.97%, with the known consequences felt yesterday and today.