Two sides of the coin on the outlook for the U.S. economy in the era of Donald Trump are reflected in how the US president, on the one hand, and the head of JP Morgan, on the other, approach developments.

At the same time, as seen in the markets so far, investors are affected by the trade war threatening the US economy, with both China and the EU announcing new tariffs today (9/4), and on the other hand, listening to Trump urging them to remain relaxed and buy stocks.

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is adamant in his assessment that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession after saying in remarks today on Fox Business, “the most likely scenario is that we head into a recession.”

JP Morgan had estimated last week that the odds of a recession were 60%. “I think that’s the most likely scenario, because the markets… when you see a 2,000-point drop in the Dow Jones, that starts to feed on itself, doesn’t it?” he said.

Dimon pointed out that the psychology of investors and citizens is strongly affected: “You start to feel like you’re losing money from your pension. You have to rein in your spending.”

Trump to investors: “BE COOL” – “It’s the right time to buy”

At the same time, Donald Trump’s social media posts paint a different picture while calling for calm.

About three minutes after the markets opened, again recording mild losses, Trump reappeared on Truth Social, writing in all caps, “BE COOL! It’s going to be OK. The U.S. will be bigger and better than ever!”

In a new post that followed shortly afterwards, Trump went on to make a personal investment recommendation, highlighting: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT”

The initials DJT, however, that he has included in his post refer to Trump Media & Technology Group Corp whose stock has been rising in recent hours.

The president’s remarks come amid concerns in global markets about the outcome of the trade dispute with China and the growing instability caused by tariffs and uncertainty in the global economy.

The markets

At the same time, the elevator once again becomes Wall Street. As newmoney.gr notes, on the board, the Dow Jones is up 0.20% to trade at 37,720.79 points. The S&P 500 is up 0.15% at 4,990.48 points, and the Nasdaq is up 0.94% at 15,411.64 points.

In any case, with losses of -20% from recent records (bear market), Wall Street is “flirting” again, as the fierce trade confrontation between the US and China is dangerously escalating. Beijing’s decision to impose an 84% tariff on US imports in response to Donald Trump’s new 104% tariff on Chinese goods sparked a storm of liquidation in stocks and bonds before his urging.

On the brink of a crash is the S&P 500, which has already fallen nearly 19% from its all-time high in February. A drop of just 1% is enough to officially enter a bear market, a 20% drop from its peak. On Friday, the Nasdaq had already entered a bear market. In the same pattern, the Dow Jones has lost over 4,500 points in just four days, while the Nasdaq has “plunged” by 13% in the same period.

Investors are abandoning not only stocks but also government bonds en masse. The US 10-year yield has “soared” to near 4.5% amid doubts about whether it remains a “safe haven”. The fall extended to other bond markets, with UK borrowing rates “climbing” to their highest levels since 1998 and Japanese 40-year bond yields reaching historic highs.

China responds to Trump with 84% tariffs on US goods

Earlier, with tariffs of 84% on imported US goods – up from 34% previously announced – China responded to yesterday’s announcements by Trump, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said today. These measures will take effect from April 10, according to the same update.

According to the Chinese ministry’s statement explaining its justification for imposing higher tariffs, “the US decision (to impose 104% tariffs) seriously violates China’s legitimate rights and interests and seriously harms the rules-based multilateral trading system.”.

The adoption of additional tariffs by China led to a new “plunge” in US markets, with the S&P 500 immediately falling by 1.5%. At the same time, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 4.2%. At the same time, the FTSE 100 is down 3.4%, the German DAX is down 3.4%, while the French CAC 40 is down 3.4%.

What the US exported to China last year

The US exported $143.5 billion worth of goods to China last year, according to the Washington trade representative.

The top exports, according to the United States International Trade Commission, were:

– Soybeans
– Civil aircraft, engines, and parts
– Microchips and microdevices, including their parts
– Pharmaceuticals, including vaccines
– Petroleum (gas and oil)
; – Petroleum (gas and oil)
– Cars and vehicles

“So what?”- Washington’s first reaction to China’s additional tariffs

However, China’s move to impose retaliatory tariffs of 84% against US goods is unfortunate and a move that puts Beijing at a loss, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today.

“I think it’s unfortunate that the Chinese don’t want to come in and negotiate because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system, Besed said in an interview with the Fox Business Network. China’s exports to the U.S. are five times as much as our exports to China. So they can raise their tariffs. So what?” added.