Hello, K.M may be abroad, specifically in Sweden today, but in Athens, M.M hasn’t shut down—on the contrary, it’s running and they’re showing it, saying so outright. The morning coffee goes on as usual, K.M is on an open WhatsApp line, and yesterday afternoon a broad interministerial meeting was held under Hatzidakis at the Bodossakis Mansion regarding the implementation of the Highway Code, which was passed with a large majority the day before yesterday. Present, among others, were Kyranakis, Chrysochoidis, Adonis, Floridis, Zacharaki, and others, because laws—even stricter laws—are all well and good, but our weak point lies in enforcement, not legislation. I understand that things will “tighten” in the near future; cameras are coming this summer…

The meeting on water

Apart from that, today a major meeting is being convened on water management, as the problem is undeniable. Beyond the many agencies and fragmented responsibilities, there is also the undeniable problem of drought, which makes immediate measures necessary. The meeting is also under Vice President Kostis, with Skertsos participating, while the ministers invited include Dimas, Papastavrou, Kikilias, Livanios, general secretaries of ministries, from EYDAP Giorgos Stergiou and Haris Sahinis, and from PPC Stassis (since PPC manages the hydroelectric dams). I understand this will be an initial, exploratory meeting, with another to follow soon, including one with Mitsotakis for decisions.

Samaras at the Evelpidon courts…

Former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras appeared yesterday at the Evelpidon courts—not to file the constitution of the new party he is heavily rumored to be forming, but to testify in the trial of the notorious “hooded witnesses” of the Novartis conspiracy, “Sarafis” and “Keletsi,” known in real life as F. Destempasidis and M. Marangeli. The trial is taking place far from the spotlight, but who can forget the absurd little gang of Mimis and the rest of the SYRIZA government, who tried to jail their political opponents to win the elections again. Politically speaking, society has already assigned blame by pushing the “brains” behind the conspiracy to the margins of history. But on a criminal level, the victims of this conspiracy—and I refer to former prime ministers A. Samaras, P. Pikrammenos, the Governor of the Bank of Greece G. Stournaras, and current and former ministers A. Georgiadis, A. Loverdos, E. Venizelos, etc.—want, and I think rightfully so, to officially and institutionally find out who instructed the hooded witnesses to talk about alleged wheeled suitcases full of bribes worth tens of millions of euros.

…and Sarafis’ repentance

But let me return to what happened yesterday at the Evelpidon courts because, according to my legal sources, we witnessed one of the most spectacular flip-flops… since the founding of the Greek state, as Papaggelopoulos used to say. I’m referring to “Sarafis,” who, under a hood, claimed to have seen bribes being handed out to politicians, but without the hood and before Justice, he retracted everything. Ahead of Samaras’ testimony, he rushed to submit a three-page statement explicitly saying that “it never came to my attention that then Prime Minister Mr. Samaras was bribed,” and that “…neither K. Frouzis nor any other company executive ever told me that then Prime Minister Mr. Samaras was bribed, about whom I never had any doubts concerning his integrity and patriotism.” At this rate, I can even see him voting for the Messenian politician.

The Parliament’s “golden” trips

The most intense behind-the-scenes clash with “Byzantinisms” and “backstabbing” among our MPs recently came to an end. It was the battle among members of the national delegation to secure a spot in one of Parliament’s most privileged friendship groups. These committees aim to maintain and strengthen relations with the parliaments of other countries. Usually, however, they offer our MPs a great opportunity to travel the world for free. You can imagine the commotion over who would win the “golden” tickets for friendship groups in exotic or faraway countries they’d never visit under normal circumstances. For example, Z. Makri, Th. Karaoglou, and P. Perka were placed in the Vietnam group. In Korea, G. Stamatis, S. Michailidis, and S. Digeni. In Zambia, D. Aktypis and A. Avlonitis. In Japan, G. Stylios, V. Oikonomou, and D. Kalamatianos. In the India group, M. Antoniou, G. Papandreou, and Th. Pafilis. T. Dimoschakis and S. Bibilas are packing their bags for Kenya, while G. Amyras, K. Monogiou, and N. Kasimatis are headed for Cuba.

Everyone Agreed

Yesterday in Parliament, representatives from the print and electronic press, as well as from radio and television, along with journalist unions, spoke on the bill presented by Pavlos Marinakis. Truth be told, it’s the first time I’ve seen (in our “well-meaning” sector) such nearly unanimous acceptance, especially from the regional press, which has been struggling due to new conditions. Pavlos Marinakis announced that, following this bill, he will bring three more in 2025: one for ERT (state broadcaster), and one each for licensing regional TV stations and radio stations, which have been operating for decades on temporary licenses while receiving unchecked advertising revenue and state subsidies. In short, what his predecessors didn’t do for some 30 years, Marinakis has decided to tackle in under a year.

Tsipras’s ChatGPT

With an hour and a half delay, the 5th SYRIZA PS Congress began, which was… heated, though probably because the organizers didn’t manage the air conditioning properly. Now, if President Alexis hadn’t been there to rouse the crowd (mostly middle-aged), the kickoff would have been rather lukewarm, despite the public embraces between Famellos and Polakis and the calls for unity. In the battle of impressions—i.e., applause—the former president Alexis left today’s president, Socrates Famellos, far behind. After all, “When is Alexis coming back?” overwhelmingly dominated the small talk, with people placing their hopes in… ChatGPT. “It’s going crazy,” they say, these last few days on ChatGPT about the… “Tsipras party.” Not to mention that some congress participants—who are AI analysts—see October 18th as a likely date, referencing the “Change” victory of 1981. Worth noting: summer theatrical revues are about to start…

What OTE, NOVA, and Vodafone Are Losing to PPC in Fiber Optics

The stock board spoke and made a rerating to lower levels for OTE’s stock after PPC’s official commercial entry into telecommunications infrastructure, specifically in fiber optics (FTTH), but that’s just the current market estimate, so a closer look may be necessary. AXIA, in a report, estimates that the existing players in fiber optics—OTE, NOVA, Vodafone—will lose market share due to the entry of FiberGrid, PPC’s subsidiary, which announced significantly lower prices than its competitors (except for Inalan). Especially in the popular 1 Gbps package, FiberGrid’s price of €19.90 is 55% lower than the most expensive competitor. However, losses for the three pre-existing providers may be manageable since there will surely be commercial responses (offers, bundle packages, etc.) that could mitigate the impact. Currently, AXIA estimates that OTE, Vodafone, and NOVA are expected to collectively lose 360,000 FTTH subscribers by 2028, with OTE losing 60% of those (around 216,000). If, says AXIA, OTE reacts with price cuts—e.g., lowers rates by €4 for 25% of its customer base—this would impact EBITDA by 2% and apply pressure to ARPU (average revenue per user).

OTE’s Defenses and PPC’s Plans for Public Projects

However, OTE has strong defenses since 75% of its customers have bundled packages (landline, mobile, internet, and TV), and these customers don’t switch easily—partly due to the bundle discounts and partly to avoid dealing with multiple providers and bills. AXIA, however, predicts that since OTE has robust infrastructure and has already covered 1.8 million homes with FTTH, aiming for 3 million, despite losing some customers, its financial figures will remain strong, with high EBITDA margins and stable cash flow. Thus, it estimates the short-term impact for OTE in terms of competition and potential customer/revenue loss to be negative but manageable, and it maintains a “buy” recommendation on the stock with a price target of €19.70 (yesterday’s close at €16.80). Additionally, note that PPC’s entry into internet services via fiber optics wasn’t just a flashy one-off move, but the first step in a broader plan that includes taking on public projects and providing wholesale telecom network access, which other retailers can build on. Cosmote’s response is expected by fall at the latest.

IDEAL: Oversubscription and 3,000 Private Investors

IDEAL Holdings’ €48 million capital increase concludes today, aimed at implementing an investment plan exceeding €100 million by the end of 2026, while also strengthening and expanding its shareholder base. The goals appear to have been achieved, as reports yesterday afternoon indicated the increase had been 1.5 times oversubscribed and about 3,000 private investors had signed up.

Kapralos’ Departure

Spyros Kapralos has stepped down from the board of directors of GEK TERNA, where, in addition to serving as Senior Independent Director, he also held the position of independent non-executive member. Kapralos had been on the company’s board for eight years and, although he would have continued if the option existed, his departure was mandatory, as according to corporate legislation (although it varies depending on the company), this time limit cannot be exceeded.

Myths and truths in the case of OLTH

Much is being said these days about supposed public offers to the management and major shareholders of OLTH. The Hellenic Capital Market Commission inquired (and rightly so), with the company responding that—for the time being—there is nothing. The stock continues its upward path, and the only truth is what this column has written for a month now: there must be a strong independent body, a major American bank that will offer Ivan Savvidis “a price he could not refuse,” while simultaneously finding a buyer willing to pay the amount the current major shareholder expects to receive. What is that price? Well above the current valuation of 372 million euros. When the public offer by Louis-Dreyfus was submitted last February, the independent appraiser’s report to the board of OLTH stated a fair valuation range between €38.88 and €44.08 per share, which was vastly distant from the offer price (up to 68% lower). Yesterday, the OLTH share price (€37 +5.71%) approached the valuation levels, and if the €2/share dividend is also considered, the analysts at Beta Securities (Independent Valuer) were likely vindicated, after just four months. Beta had also undertaken the preparation of a fair price study in a Public Offer for OLTH in 2021, from which a lower price had then emerged. However, back in 2021, the global economy was in a pandemic state, with strict health protocols in place for the transport sector, different risk coefficients in the discounting valuation models, and significantly lower earnings multiples in comparative valuations.

Plastika Thrakis unscathed from dividend cut

Yesterday, the Plastika Thrakis stock cut the dividend of €0.1690857354 per share (gross amount). It had already distributed part of the total dividend (€0.23/share) and yesterday completed payment to its shareholders. It cut the dividend at the price of €4/share, dropped to €3.95, but quickly rebounded and covered the cut, closing up +2.19% at €3.9650. Analysts are now waiting for the management to fulfill its promises to use its strong available liquidity to seize market opportunities through acquisitions.

Pressure incoming under low volumes

The dollar is now 16% cheaper than the euro (for the first time since October 2021), and analyses now indicate an exchange rate of €1 to $1.25. Gold again surpassed $3,400/ounce. Oil prices approached $69/barrel again for the first time since March, while JP Morgan warns that “an Israeli attack on Iran could send oil prices soaring to $120, pushing U.S. inflation to 5%.” Incidentally, Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s largest bank, urges the U.S. government to stockpile more bullets and rare earths rather than bitcoin (which is soaring above $110,000). Amid this international climate, the Athens Stock Exchange kept its composure but in a declining environment and ended the session at 1,854.98 points (-0.66%) with transaction value near €160.6 million, of which €15.9 million concerned pre-arranged block trades. Among systemic banks, only Alpha Bank managed to stay marginally afloat (+0.07%) at €2.78, while Eurobank (-1.85%) at €2.7, National Bank (-1.37%) at €10.8, and Piraeus (-1.35%) at €5.57 were seeking support with relatively high volumes. Coca-Cola was affected by the negative sentiment in Europe and slipped to €46.3 (-0.39%), OPAP (-0.5%) to €19.81, while TITAN (+0.62%) to €40.5 along with Metlen (+0.09%) to €45.5 helped contain the index’s overall decline. At ELVALHALCOR, 3 consecutive sessions (+1.48%) pushed capitalization above €900 million, to a 50-month high at €2.4/share.

Four stocks stood out

Yesterday’s correction, however, was not enough to prevent new records for listed companies on the ASE. Specifically, four stocks reached peaks not seen in several years. Sarantis broke the €14 barrier, reaching €14.5 at the day’s high, at levels not seen since June 2018. ElvalHalcor “touched” €2.4 for the first time in four years, with its market cap now nearing €900 million. With a “silent” rise, HELEX extended its positive streak for the third consecutive day and simultaneously widened its 11-year record, closing at levels last seen in September 2014. Finally, buyers ignored the denial by OLTH’s management of reports about a public offer and changes in shareholder structure, driving the port’s share to €37 for the first time since January 2008.

Debt, a major problem for Trump

Inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% from 2.5%, but President Trump is calling on his central banker to cut dollar interest rates by 1%. Obviously, the refinancing of the massive debt ($34.4 trillion) is the big issue for the American government, while a sudden major rate cut would facilitate the further weakening of the dollar (-14% this year) to reduce consumption and boost exports.

Up to age 45 you buy bitcoin, after that gold

Stock markets are inflated. Bonds are unstable. Currency exchange rates fluctuate violently and for different reasons. Investors are seeking “safe havens” and, based on their age, are choosing either gold or cryptocurrencies—namely, let’s not hide it—bitcoin. Older investors follow the tried and true, i.e., the strategy of central banks which are buying €8.2 billion worth of gold each month. That amounts to 80 metric tons of gold every month. In contrast, younger generations choose bitcoin either to challenge the global financial system, or because it is a borderless investment with fewer formalities, or because they believe blockchain is the future. A major multinational consulting firm, the deVere Group, conducted a global survey among its clients and found that 73% of investors aged 24 to 45 now prefer bitcoin over the precious metal as a long-term investment. On the other hand, sovereign wealth funds, according to the World Gold Council, are estimated to absorb over 1,000 tons of gold annually, about a quarter of the total global mining supply.