Even for those for whom the crises in the Middle East are like reading the Sunday papers with your coffee, the current picture in the region is far more complex and data-complex than any other.

Israel, after the October 7 invasion of Hamas and the massacres of civilians, has launched an offensive that shows strategic planning over many years, methodical, and clearly a plan in which the goal is a radical change in the facts, not yet another agreement or yet another treaty. The actions of the Israeli Prime Minister and his government have succeeded not only in embarrassing the entire system of Israel’s opponents but, above all, those of its friends and declared partners.

In less than two years since the darkest page in its history following the atrocity of the Holocaust, Israel has gone beyond the point of fossilizing every threat adjacent to its borders, send messages with fighter jets to Tehran but also give those who believe there is any merit to the arrest warrants from the International Court a clear position: “we write the ending this time”.

The facts on the ground, with the blood of innocents still being spilled either by bullets or famine, are clearly more tangible than what is unfolding at the diplomatic level. Israel will be in New York, and it will be a given that it will attempt to strike at those who have chosen to oppose it in every way possible. The Benjamin Netanyahu may not have publicly stated anywhere that he has an invasion and total occupation of the West Bank in the works – he has his far-right partners doing so – but it is clear even to those who are now “tuning in” to what is going on that he will not hesitate for a moment to do what he is given, even temporarily, an advantage.

Analysts, mainly from Israel, have been attempting in recent hours to put this move in the back of the big picture and have stated that Netanyahu has no intention of creating further risks both at home and abroad and if he eventually attempts such a move in West Bank this will most likely take place in the so-called “C” sector which formally and practically does not threaten the Palestinian community either. But Netanyahu is neither inconsistent nor ignorant and it is clear that there is absolutely no need for any invasion of the West Bank, as he has for months now launched a regular war against the Palestinians in the area through an “army” of settlers. Within 18 months the settlements in the region have tripled since 2023 and despite the fact that officially settlement is considered a war crime by the UN, Israel has made the decision to consider these resolutions and timeless global norms as “fine print.”

In a war it is clear that each side will use its own powerful cards and weapons. Israel does so as a matter of fact against its enemies – visible and invisible – in a masterful manner only that the impact of actions in the fields and battles – real and diplomatic – in such difficult situations is not measured in months but rather in decades. The basic change that has already taken place from Israel’s actions is that the action of the government of the country has long ago moved from its clear right to defense to a level at which borders and balances are at stake that never before have Israel’s bigger political and not only political names been willing or able to influence.

Israel, which has always had its feet in the present planning and defining the future, today seems to live for the now and the moment counting on a peculiar – extreme for the West – scale of friends and foes. Young – historically timed – Israel is choosing to run rather than walk as soon as it has managed to get its feet on the ground, and this poses significant risks not only for itself but also for the constant that keeps it standing in this maelstrom. In Israel’s case that constant is the US but even they are rather clear that they do not have “blind” faith in Netanyahu especially after the Doha attacks.

But through the mirror of Israel and the given exposure of US foreign policy, there are also tangible facts that should primarily concern the White House itself.

The fact, for example, that the Rubio trip around the world and the attempt to persuade traditional US allies not to recognize a Palestinian state have been anything but successful. Britain, maintaining its Commonwealth leadership, recognized the Palestinian entity right after Australia and Canada, and all this just hours after Trump left the UK… France, Spain, and Portugal will not be the only ones who will also form a front against not only Netanyahu but also Trump, and this, apart from being a gesture of opposition, is the first, if not European, at least “extra-American” no to Washington.

The two-state solution that Trump himself, in his first term, in every way possible – but recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital – has been “dead” for at least 8 years. Even if her body returns to the scene, like the dozens of bodies of kidnapped people still held by Hamas as a macabre negotiating card, nothing will bring her back to life. These wounds will, after all, remain “traditionally” painful even if the wounds do one day heal.