-Hello there, I want to start with international affairs today, since the UN Summit in New York has been making headlines for four days now, noting that yesterday Putin sent a very “tangible” message about how much he rates Trump, by unleashing one of his fiercest attacks on Kyiv. You’ll surely remember his infamous meeting with the American president in Alaska, with the red carpets rolled out for the Russian leader, as well as all the things Trump has been saying lately about the war—supporting Zelensky, about retaking Crimea by the West, etc., etc. Don’t be surprised if we get a similar episode in Gaza now that Trump is also meeting with Netanyahu, but overall it’s not hard to see that we’re living through a period of madness where there are neither constants nor… stable people. So, caution with the deep analyses about national defeat, Erdogan’s hegemony, etc., etc., because they’re more like newspapers: one day they may be worth something, the next they’re only good for wrapping fish.

Back to M.M
-After a week in the US, K.M is back to daily life, in the office since morning, but will be off again midweek for Denmark and the European Political Community. The first day at M.M also means plenty of meetings with his staff for coordination and action planning (a main one at noon), while tomorrow the Cabinet will also convene, where Pierrakakis will present the bill with the Thessaloniki Fair measures that will go through Parliament, and we’ll see which opposition parties support them or not. On Friday, K.M will speak at ONNED’s conference, which coincides with New Democracy’s birthday (October 4).

The circus begins with the asset declarations: property, deposits and grazing land
-A circus is expected in just a few hours at Parliament and across news sites, as at 10:30 the asset declarations of political figures for the financial years 2022 and 2023 will be made public, including the first-time declarations of those elected in the 2023 parliamentary elections. These include the declarations of party leaders, ministers, MPs, MEPs, regional governors, and mayors, which in the current climate carry extra interest. Beyond bank balances, number of properties, or stock and mutual fund portfolios, they’ll also be on the lookout for any ownership of “gold-bearing” grazing land— as subsidies from OPEKEPE have recently shown to be quite lucrative.

The real estate deals and Sarakis’ 30… million (not silver pieces)
-From what I hear, during the period covered by the declarations there were property transactions worth hundreds of thousands of euros, but the real “head-spinner” will come from elsewhere. The deposits in the initial declaration of independent MP Pavlos Sarakis (originally elected with Greek Solution) compared to the following year show a difference of just over 30 million euros. That’s money he received from the US as lawyer for the protected witnesses in the Novartis case. As “To Thema” revealed in July 2024, the total amount shared among lawyers and “hooded witnesses” exceeded 56 million euros. Of course, it turned out that the witnesses did provide US authorities with evidence of the real scandal involving bribes to doctors for preferential prescribing of the pharmaceutical giant’s products, while in Greece they were turned into “pistols” aimed at SYRIZA-ANEL’s political opponents. Are they trying to drive us crazy?

The directive on payments
-“You will not make payments the way OPEKEPE used to. Payments will only be made after strict checks.” This is the Commission’s directive to the government. The vice-presidency (Chatzidakis) and the relevant ministry (Tsiaras) are in constant contact with commissioners, because money does need to reach producers, but Brussels is adamant. Some payments, e.g. for sheep pox, will be made, but checks are still ongoing for organic farming, while the basic payments for this year’s OPEKEPE applications will only be made with the new year.

The reappearance of Sakellaropoulou
-After quite some time, former President of the Republic Katerina Sakellaropoulou will appear to speak at the presentation of Tasos Giannitsis’ book “Greece 1953–2024 – Time and Political Economy”, which takes place today at the Megaron Concert Hall. On the panel are also professor Kostas Kostis (who wrote the preface), former deputy minister Panos Tsakloglou, and EKPA emeritus professor Stavros Thomadakis.

Nikos’ crowd…
-I hear that at our leader Nikos’ rallies in Chios, where he was over the past weekend, the turnout wasn’t exactly overwhelming – I put it as politely as I can. PASOK is the second party on the island, which burned twice this summer, so one would expect a bit more interest. But on Saturday night, when the leader went to Kalamoti, barely fifty souls showed up in the square to listen to him. Not to mention, they didn’t even gather at the time they were told, and the leader arrived more than an hour late. And it was pretty chilly that night on the island – why didn’t they just gather in a nice warm, welcoming bar?

Vrettos and ND
-You saw the news: Natsios of NIKI expelled his MP Vrettos, saying that in the inquiry on OPEKEPE he backed ND’s line. Vrettos had long disagreed with Natsios, whose party is basically a one-man show, while for some time now in Parliament the scenario of Vrettos moving to ND has been in circulation. The Arcadian MP of the Southern District is thought to be “warming up” for ND, but on ND’s side I’m not so sure. It remains to be seen how he votes, of course…

Kimberly’s arrival and the energy file
-In the third ten days of October, probably toward the end of the month, Kimberly Guilfoyle will arrive here to take up her post as the new US ambassador to Greece, sworn in today. Since her first major milestone will likely be the Transatlantic Partnership for Energy Cooperation (PTEC) meeting at Zappeion, November 6–7, where she’ll welcome US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Guilfoyle had a fairly long talk in New York with Stavros Papastavrou. Energy will be high on her agenda, as it is for Trump in his dealings with Europe.

Karystianou
-I read with interest yesterday Karystianou’s interview-conversation in Kathimerini. Naturally, she’s a figure always in the spotlight, so what she says matters, especially in writing and not just in front of microphones. I’ll copy one paragraph of hers, which I think is the heart of it: “I won’t be organizing anything nor do I have the time for it. But I do wish, like much of society, to see something new. I’m also part of the 25%,” she says, continuing: “If what I dream of comes to life, if something new emerges with vision and a plan, why wouldn’t I agree, why wouldn’t I welcome it, without necessarily being part of it?” So, Karystianou, combined with her answer elsewhere in the interview, where she says she has no ties with Zoe, makes it clear that since “she has no time to organize a party,” but would support something new, she can’t go with either Tsipras or Samaras, since neither is “the new” in politics, both being former prime ministers with messy and controversial political records. So what’s left, if anything?

Kasselakis – Speakers’ Corner
-To wrap up today’s (quite rich) political section, the night before last I stumbled across a TikTok live around 2 a.m., where Kasselakis was in Syntagma talking with 5–6 passersby who had gathered in support of a well-known hunger striker. The discussions and the “questions” to Kasselakis could have come straight out of Anita Pania’s infamous Paratragouda show. One asked him why the staff at Koumoundourou were unpaid and if Tsipras pocketed the money, another went after him for Tsipras – “since he brought you in, what are you telling us now?” another for the euro. And poor Kasselakis tried to answer each of them, talking about an unconventional centrist party. The word “center” to that crowd must sound like something extraterrestrial. It resembled the famous Speakers’ Corner at Hyde Park in London, where every Sunday the city’s “distinguished” speakers and orators would climb on a bench and get cheered on by a bunch of jokers.

Piraeus, the Americans, and the diplomatic super-weapon
-Donald Trump, in his attempt to reduce Europe’s and Turkey’s dependence on Russian oil and natural gas, is turning his gaze toward American production. And here, maritime transport takes center stage—because without ships, there is no energy independence. Greek shipowners control 33% of the world’s tanker capacity and almost 25% of LNG carriers. This clout is not just a statistic—it’s a diplomatic weapon. Riding on this theme, Vassilis Kikilias paid a three-day visit to Washington. He met with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to discuss Greece’s shipbuilding industry, with Doug Burgum on LNG, while technocratic talks were also held with State Department and Department of Energy officials about investments and green policies. It doesn’t go unnoticed that Trump has targeted Chinese presence in strategic ports worldwide—among them, Piraeus. In this context, Athens can play its shipping card as a tool of leverage and negotiation with Washington and European partners. It takes work, but this is the narrative shaping Greek positions.

Theodorikakos’ meeting with supermarkets on Wednesday
-The meeting between the Development Minister and supermarket representatives has been set for this Wednesday, where their initiative to immediately reduce prices on a basket of 1,000 products will be officially announced. On the 7th floor of Nikis Street, industry representatives will stress the razor-thin profit margins, and we’ll learn the outcome of T. Theodorikakos’ turbulent negotiations with retail chains and suppliers. The measure involves voluntary price list reductions plus extra discounts from the chains, aiming to beat last year’s cuts that applied to 705 products with discounts of 5% to 15%. Early reports suggest the 1,000-item list will include mainly packaged foods (pasta, legumes, frozen vegetables, dairy, olive oil, chocolates), as well as personal hygiene products, detergents, and baby diapers. Private-label products will play an active role in the initiative, which is expected to run through the Christmas holiday season.

Intesa, KBC, Santander—and the French—eyeing Greece
-Brokers and other market insiders say, despite the bad September–October tradition, the next cycle for bank stocks is set to be upward. That’s the expert view. For its part, this column—after… rolling the bones—predicts we’d better brace ourselves for the surprise announcement of a systemic bank share package sale. While we’re all fixated on what National Bank will do with its insurance subsidiaries, no one asks: aren’t the major shareholders of Greek banks, who’ve weathered hell and high water and sat on their investments for years, tempted to sell? On the other side, foreign banks are indeed eyeing the Greek market. Rumor has it among those scouting for a bank takeover are Belgium’s KBC, Italy’s Intesa (a big UniCredit rival), and Spain’s Santander, which is already active here in the car finance market. Add to that the French. While the market believes that after past Waterloo-level disasters in Greece, a French bank board would be reluctant to greenlight an acquisition, I should note: not only are they “warm,” some have already held preliminary talks. In these deals, nothing is ever certain, but the next cross-border banking deal doesn’t seem far off.

The business of… the other Djokovic
-It seems Greece hasn’t only “magnetized” tennis legend Novak Djokovic, who’s already settled here, but the Djokovic family as a whole. Last Friday, September 26, a new company was established under the name “Saash Single-Member P.C.”, founded and managed by Novak’s younger brother, Đorđe Djokovic. The 30-year-old Đorđe also had a tennis career—though never reaching Nole’s heights. He was director of the Serbia Open, held at the Novak Tennis Center, and beyond tennis, he’s dabbled in basketball too, being the brains behind the “Dubai project” that aims to enter European basketball and the EuroLeague with Dubai BC. His new Greek company was set up with an initial capital of €1,000, based on Merlin Street, with its main purpose being “sports facility management services” and a host of related activities. For example: leasing of facilities (golf, tennis, etc.), IP rights management and royalties, event ticket bookings, representation for sportswear sales, operation of football (5×5 etc.), basketball, tennis courts, wholesale of sports and promotional goods (keychains, T-shirts, lighters, pens), retail of sports equipment, even… organizing entertainment events (weddings, etc.). If nothing else, he’s got ambitious plans.

Tech Bank with AI
-Revealing about Viva’s strategic plan, its IPO ambitions, and its bitter fight with JP Morgan is Haris Karonis in the board report accompanying the annual financials of Vivabank and Viva Wallet. He stresses the group is now focused on building Europe’s leading payments and banking services platform. Instead of chasing dominance in single markets, Viva’s strategy is to capture smaller but profitable market shares in each country. Operationally, it has gained flexibility, strengthened its model, and integrated AI tools that boosted productivity. This new Viva.com operating model, he explains, is now the roadmap for the coming years. A key milestone was merging the group’s credit institution with its e-money entity, and now Viva.com stands at the threshold of a new era—not as a payments company, but as Europe’s first fully functional Tech Bank, leveraging, among other things, its pan-European leadership in Tap On Any Device technology.

Karonis eyes Nasdaq for Viva
-As for the dispute with JPM, the report notes that the UK Court of Appeal’s ruling, which endorsed the “one-shot” interpretation of shareholder buyback rights, shows JPM had misread the Shareholders’ Agreement all along. Karonis states: “Since JPM no longer has such a buyback right, I believe it will soon stop obstructing the company’s growth, as it cannot benefit from such tactics anymore. This development will finally allow the company to move forward with an IPO on an organized stock exchange, in line with our strategic vision.” From the outset, this was part of his plan, delayed by the JPM fight. But it will still take time, as the ambition, as he has said, is Nasdaq—with revenue targets of €1 billion by 2028.

Greek momentum in ship orders and sales
-Greek shipowners were highly active last week, both at the shipyards and in the secondhand market, sidelining scrapping. On the newbuild front, Navios Maritime (Angeliki Frangou), Danaos (Dr. John Coustas), and Minerva Marine (Andreas Martinos Jr.) moved to strengthen their presence in containerships, with methanol-ready designs—i.e., engines convertible to run on methanol. These plans align with future charterer demands and environmental standards, clearly signaling where the wind blows: green adaptation and early positioning in a sector seeking cleaner footprints. Meanwhile, in the secondhand market, Greeks snapped up modern bulk tonnage—including a 2016 Kamsarmax and a 2020 Ultramax. At the same time, Olympic Shipping left its mark by divesting two 2008 Aframaxes. A liquidity-driven strategy, insiders say, as tanker sentiment remains “hot,” with the company recalibrating its exposure.

Why John Coustas feels no pity
-Behind the shipping chessboard, Danaos chief John Coustas stirred things up at the TradeWinds forum in Athens. With a dose of realism—and maybe a pinch of irony—he reminded the audience that although liner giants see revenue per container under pressure, they’re in no mood to slow down. Competition among liners will keep boosting containership charter rates and owners’ profits. Liner companies prefer to charter ships at a loss rather than leave “space” for rivals. Their coffers are still full from the pandemic’s golden era and the Red Sea crisis profits. “I don’t feel sorry for them,” Coustas quipped. The takeaway? In shipping, the market may look irrational, but the psychology of competition always costs more than the numbers in Excel.

Listed company results
-Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for listed companies’ half-year reports. So far, 83 companies have published, so we’re expecting a flood of announcements in the coming hours. From the 83 results so far, turnover is up about 5% and operating profits +3.5%. But net profits, the bottom line, show a -1.7% drop, revealing the effects of FX differences and other geopolitical disruptions. Highly awaited are the results from Ellaktor, PPA, Intracom, Qualco, and Athens Medical.

Hopes pinned on “window dressing”
-The last two trading sessions of the nine-month period, today and tomorrow, are ripe for “window dressing” moves by institutional and professional investors. Especially at a time when no major developments are on the horizon—apart from the Athens Stock Exchange’s “marriage” with Euronext and a few rating reviews. Year-to-date, the General Index is up +38%, average daily turnover exceeds €209 million, and mutual fund inflows run around €15 million per week. Ahead, we face a series of capital raisings via bonds or share issues. Current results justify today’s valuations, but don’t point to future euphoria. On the bright side, dividend payouts remain very strong: roughly €5 billion this year from dividends alone, and if we add bank and OPAP interim dividends, distributions will surpass the historic €5.4 billion record set back in 2007.

16,000 private investors for GEK TERNA’s bond
-Tomorrow morning, GEK TERNA’s management and executives will be at the Athens Exchange to ring the bell for trading of its new 7-year, €500 million bond. Demand hit a record €1.2 billion—the highest ever for a bond offer in Greece—with about 16,000 retail investors participating. As a result, the issue was oversubscribed 2.4 times and the yield settled at 3.20%. The new bond will further boost the company’s concessions and PPP portfolio and support its new investment plans.

Jumbo disappoints
-Jumbo’s weak H1 results triggered sell-offs, with the stock retreating from €32.16 to €29.10 in just four days—a drop of about 9.5%. That’s its lowest close in nearly three months, since July 1. The negative catalyst was the decline in net profits to €117.18 million from €121.69 million in H1 2024. At the same time, the group’s valuation slipped below €4 billion.

Turkish Airlines’ ambitions after Erdogan’s jumbo order
-The plan had been in the works since 2023. But President Erdogan kept the 225-aircraft order from Boeing as a “surprise gift” for his meeting with Trump. The gist: Turkish Airlines placed one of the largest orders in its history—a move both to fully modernize its fleet by 2035 and to cement its status as the top regional carrier. The deal has two key parts: 1) Long-haul aircraft (Boeing 787 Dreamliner): 50 firm orders for B787-9 and B787-10, plus 25 options. Deliveries scheduled between 2029–2034. 2) Medium-haul aircraft (Boeing 737 MAX): 100 firm orders for 737-8 and 737-10 MAX, plus 50 options. Alongside, Turkish Airlines is negotiating with engine makers: Rolls-Royce and GE Aerospace for the 787s, and CFM International for the 737 MAX. Talks cover not just engines but spares and maintenance services. The upshot: by 2035, Turkish Airlines’ entire fleet will be next-generation, with lower fuel consumption and maintenance costs. Its financial target: average annual growth around 6%. No wonder Eftichis Vassilakis is rushing for Aegean Airlines to secure major long-haul markets before it’s too late…