-Hello, before moving on to current affairs, a note about the truly nice and absolutely “educational” institution of the Marathon, which, after all, takes place as an event worldwide. Okay, fine, closing the entire city center—and by extension the “suburbs” of Athens—on Sunday is understandable, but I think Saturday is pushing it. First of all, far more people are inconvenienced than those who enjoy it for a weekend, especially in a city like Athens, where the center is constantly shut down for the tiniest of reasons. Have you ever thought about how many times a year the center of Athens closes, whether it’s 30 people strolling down Amalias and Vassilissis Sofias, a few hundred students, or PAME protests, etc.? Then, besides the inconvenience, there are the downtown shops expecting to earn extra on Saturdays, and naturally, they have their point too. So isn’t closing the center for the whole weekend a bit much?

From the good to the tough?

-Let’s go back to everyday life, where from last Thursday until yesterday the government enjoyed—and rightly so—good publicity over the energy deals with the Americans (you’ll read more about the agreements below), and I don’t know how much that resonates with ordinary folks or how much it “stirs up” business passions, but it’s obvious that “getting closer” with the Americans and the new system of the POTUS can only be good for Greece. Now I’m hearing that at some point in the coming days the OPEKEPE Case No. 2 file will arrive, though the information isn’t certain, since not even the Maximos Mansion has a clear picture of the exact timeline. That will be tricky again, because the file includes names of ministers. But let’s wait, because we’ve heard a lot already, and we’re keeping our expectations low.

Samaras

-As expected, Samaras’ “interview” had it all, but mostly endless venom for Mitsotakis. Hatred, passion, and rage—that’s its hallmark. And I put “interview” in quotes because if he wanted a proper interview on ANT1, he would’ve given it to one of the station’s good, experienced journalists to ask a tough or slightly awkward question. Anyway, the man has drama in his soul, so there’s not much to comment on. I can’t help but wonder why, in his mind in 2025, it’s bad that Mitsotakis “made ND something like PASOK under Simitis.” And is that really such a big blunder? Especially when the highlight of Samaras’ career was his premiership with Venizelos and PASOK. He governed for two years with the PASOK folks and still speaks sweetly of them, and rightly so—it’s his opinion. What bothered him about Mitsotakis’ opening to the center? Now, obviously, as the experienced politician he is, he knows that society hears a former ND president insulting the current one differently than seeing him as the leader of another party, so he’s probably thinking twice about whether to risk it or just coast along.

Kyriakos present at the Hellenic Shipowners’ Association event

-Kyriakos Mitsotakis will attend and give greetings tonight at an event by the Hellenic Shipowners’ Association at the Athens Conservatoire, honoring donors to its action plan for the restoration of flood-hit areas in Thessaly. The initiative, titled “Saint Nicholas – Hellenic Shipowners’ Association Action Plan for Thessaly,” is part of the Greek shipping community’s corporate social responsibility efforts, aimed at supporting affected communities through education, health, and culture initiatives. Donors and supporters of the plan, who played a decisive role in restoring flood-damaged areas in Thessaly, will be honored, confirming once again the social role and enduring contribution of shipping to Greek society. The Prime Minister’s presence goes beyond a formal ceremonial appearance—it reflects the steady recognition of shipping as a strategic national asset, with weight not only economically but also for Greece’s international image. In a period of heightened geoeconomic and energy challenges, the state-shipping relationship takes on a broader political dimension—as a point of coordination, responsibility, and outward-looking engagement.

“Unlocking” strategic investments

-Work seems to be underway in the strategic investment sector, and now after tourism the focus is also on industry. I hear that the responsible minister, Takis Theodorikakos, convenes this morning the relevant Interministerial Committee on Strategic Investments (DESE), with three main agenda items. The first investment plan is AGET Heracles’ “Olympus Project,” budgeted at €99 million, and the second industrial project is the creation of a new production unit for insulation, resin floors, and mortars by NEOTEX in Magoula, with a budget of €21.5 million. Finally, in the tourism sector, on the table is a new 5-star hotel in Filiatra, Ithaca, with 60 beds, 50 villas, etc. The project belongs to brothers Nikos and Panagiotis Tsakos of the company ATOKOS LTD.

The message from KEDKE

-ND maintains strong forces in local government, but at the KEDKE conference in Alexandroupolis cracks were visible. Mayors are complaining about the lack of resources they see, and given that many left on Saturday, the faction led by Haris Doukas took the opportunity to put forward a tough text against the government, which narrowly failed to pass. The text, titled “End the financial and institutional strangulation of municipalities,” received 89 votes against 92 from the faction of president Lazaros Kyrizoglou. The KKE had 10 votes opposing as well. The ratios are of course 70-30 in favor of Kyrizoglou’s “blue” faction, but a mix of dissatisfaction and laxity could have caused… an accident. Interestingly, mayors don’t personalize their frustration on Minister Livanios, with whom they always discuss matters and keep the door open.

100,000 registrations

-This past weekend ND held internal elections for the presidents of provincial and municipal organizations, as well as delegates. I hear registrations for the ballots are nearly 100,000, though in 2/3 of provinces there is only one candidate. The number is not trivial, considering the circumstances and stakes, and it’s also an important exercise in mobilizing the party machinery.

PASOK announcements fall flat…

-Well, PASOK doesn’t seem to think before issuing announcements. The party spokesperson went after Mitsotakis for not going to Parliament for the Thessaloniki measures, and of course spokesman Marinakis responded, noting that they had voted for the measures they had condemned two months ago, while also reminding that Spain, a socialist role model, had yet another month of higher food inflation than Greece. With this kind of strategy, it’s no wonder the needle is stuck.

The new businesses of DFC: Supporting Goldair, a new port in Elefsina, Gonos Military Camp

-Without fanfare, but with a clear strategy, the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the US government’s development bank, has begun to establish a multi-level presence in Greece. Wherever there’s energy, infrastructure, and geopolitical interest, the Americans are there—not just as spectators. After the $125 million financing of ONEX Elefsis Shipyards & Industries, DFC is preparing, together with Piraeus Bank, to participate in Goldair’s Thriasio Freight Center, while it has also “marked” the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electricity interconnection project, which sparked some chatter over the past couple of days, though the strength of their involvement cannot yet be assessed. At the same time, a letter of intent has been sent for the financing of the freight center at the former Gonos Military Camp in Thessaloniki, involving Goldair, Aktor, and Trade Estates. US interest is no coincidence: the goal is to counterbalance Chinese influence expressed through Cosco in Piraeus. The “counterweight” seems to be planned in Elefsina, with the creation of a new multi-use port (commercial and military) on 400 acres, next to the shipyards already controlled by ONEX with DFC support. Recently, according to well-informed sources, there have been contacts between DFC executives and Greek ministers, including Stavros Papastavrou and Vasilis Kikilias, aimed at promoting collaboration and opening the way for US participation in new energy and infrastructure projects. At the same time, particular activity has been noted around Atlantis See LNG Trade, the company that signed a twenty-year contract with Venture Global. According to the same sources, DFC is expected to participate not only financially but also with equity in the company, and its executives are reportedly being considered for board positions—an evolution that, if confirmed, would further strengthen the footprint of US presence on the domestic energy map. And here’s where it gets really interesting. As whispered in the corridors of Zappeion, where the transatlantic P-TEC conference took place, DFC is no longer limiting itself to projects but is also watching key companies in the sector from an equity angle. Not overtly, but methodically, with that characteristic American tactic of taking what it wants at the right moment, until one day you realize it’s already sitting at the decision-making table. Some speak of strategic interest in a well-known group active in infrastructure and beyond. Of course, these are just talks and rumors that time will reveal. If the deal is confirmed, DFC’s role in Greece moves to another level: from infrastructure investor to a balancing factor at the heart of the business map. The twenty-year LNG deal, Elefsina, Thriasio, and what follows are just the visible points of a larger American strategy unfolding step by step.

EXAE: The arbitrage funds and the illusion of stability

This week, all eyes are on Euronext’s public offer, which expires Friday. Essentially, Greece is being asked to decide what it wants its stock exchange to be: part of a European network or an inward-looking market with its own problems. The answer—barring surprises—will be known in four days. Meanwhile, some shareholders believe that by holding onto their shares, they will be in a better position later. But anyone betting on EXAE’s independence should realize that the era of standalone national exchanges is over. There are uncertainties and risks regarding the public offer, and a serious danger for private shareholders is the game played by arbitrage funds, which control roughly 15% to 20% of EXAE shares. These funds have bought EXAE and are “shorting” Euronext, waiting for the transaction to complete. If the deal succeeds, they pocket their profits and exit. If it fails, they close their shorts at Euronext—easily, since the stock is liquid—and end up holding millions of EXAE shares they will need to sell. Who will buy EXAE shares in that case? We all know the answer, and in such a scenario, the price will drop violently to lower levels, with no visible prospect of recovery. The market has no memory, but it always has logic: when the fundamental scenario is disproved, the price adjusts—immediately and harshly.

The Polish precedent

-The market, in the EXAE case, easily and thoughtlessly overlooks that if the transaction completes, Euronext will provide technology, access to international capital, and a common platform. Some view the technology and shared platform as a threat or even blackmail. They seem more likely to believe EXAE can upgrade itself in an environment where European exchanges consolidate—that is, finance its survival with its own resources. They obviously ignore the Polish precedent. The Warsaw Stock Exchange avoided investing for years, keeping profit margins above 60%. Everyone was happy until it was time for an upgrade, and then margins shrank dramatically to 28%, while profitability fell almost in half. In EXAE’s case, the blow will be even greater because our market is smaller, capital flows are more volatile, and international supervision stricter. Because if this opportunity is lost, it won’t just be the deal lost, but the last chance for the Greek market to integrate into the European center of gravity.

The €2 billion in the (NBG) treasury and the Gordian knot of exclusivity (for Piraeus Bank and NBG)

-Impressive for its conservatism was NBG’s presentation on how it intends to deploy its surplus capital, measured at 500 basis points CET1, or roughly €2 billion: A.) Distributions to shareholders, exceeding 60%. B.) Gradual organic growth. C.) Participation in international syndicated loans. D.) Acquisition of regulated loans—which doesn’t move the needle much, although it should, since the SSM consistently opposes it. E.) What NBG calls “strategic flexibility,” including capital returns to shareholders, supplementary acquisitions (i.e., smaller companies that support the parent’s operations), and last but not least, as the Brits say, “acquisition or merger” that adds value. For this last item, the market is waiting to hear, but no clarifications exist yet. And there can’t be, until negotiations conclude. NBG’s management is holding talks with CVC and Piraeus Bank to end its exclusive cooperation with Ethniki Insurance—and these talks are still ongoing. Such bank-insurance collaborations carry exclusivity and strictness. These deals are not huge enough to be shared between two banks. Once negotiations with the insurers conclude, Piraeus Bank will have exclusive cooperation with Ethniki Insurance, and NBG an exclusive relationship with NN, Allianz, or whichever insurer it chooses.

Synathlon Lab by… TEMES

-A new company was founded last Friday, November 7. Its name is “Synathlon Lab Mon. I.K.E.” and it is based on Pentelis Street in P. Faliro, in the building housing the Konstantakopoulos family’s activities. The new company, clearly reflecting the interests of the powerful business family, starts with initial share capital of €2,000,000, divided into 200,000 nominal shares, €10 each. The funds come from “Charlie Ventures Holdings,” founded by Konstantinos Konstantakopoulos in March 2020. The purpose of Synathlon Lab includes many things, but its main focus is organizing rally events. This includes the organization, management, promotion, and exploitation of sporting events, competitions, and activities of all kinds domestically and abroad, particularly motor sports events—speed, precision, or skill competitions, as well as contests, training, tests, and demonstrations with vehicles, car and motorcycle rallies, road races, cycling races, and other competitions, motorized or otherwise. Also included is the provision of all kinds of sports services, such as technical organization, safety, timing, infrastructure management, participant or spectator support, and advisory services to organizers, authorities, and participants to ensure smooth execution of sporting events, particularly motor sports, domestically and abroad. The company’s purpose also covers marketing, PR, brand management, and promotion related to sports events, especially motor sports. Further, acquisition, exploitation, management, repair, maintenance, and sale of motor vehicles, including racing vehicles and related equipment. The first board of Synathlon Lab includes Sotirios Kyranakos as Chairman, and Konstantinos Zacharatos and Apostolia Kotroni as members.

Instacar sees €35 million turnover

-Founded in 2019 in the car rental market as a startup, Instacar attracted investors such as Olympia Group (Panos Germanos), Autohellas (Vasilakis Group), and Velocity Partners, raising almost €60 million in funding rounds to date. Instacar, which published its 2024 financials, reported consolidated revenues of €22.9 million, up 73% from €13.2 million in 2023. EBITDA reached €12 million, up 92% from €6.25 million the previous year, giving a very high EBITDA margin of 52% (from 47% in 2023), while EBIT reached €3.86 million (+177%). Net losses were €618,000.

-In 2024, the company achieved positive operating cash flow (€2.5 million) but increased debt to €24.6 million. Working capital at year-end was negative, though €9 million in bank financing and €3.5 million in shareholder deposits have already been secured. Management is planning a capital increase to strengthen equity. Instacar also aims to launch new tech solutions, including a one-stop app, targeting a strong position in mobility, with a 2025 revenue goal of €35 million.

The market struggles but isn’t worried

-Traditionally, November is a good month for the Stock Exchange, in contrast to the previous September-October period, which historically delivers negative signals. The first week of November started in the red, but that doesn’t erase the gains of +35.19% for the General Index since the beginning of the year, +40.31% for the FTSE 25, and +71.39% for the Banking Index. Now, as banks prepare to pay dividends and pre-dividends (today, National Bank cuts a pre-dividend of €0.219 per share), DEI, the VIOHALCO group, along with 3E and Titan, have taken on the task of supporting the General Index in its effort to reclaim and maintain the 2,000-point stronghold it temporarily lost. This week is colored by the public offering for Lamda Development’s corporate bond, aiming to raise up to €500 million and list the bonds on the Main Market of the ASE.

New peaks for DEI, Motor Oil’s comeback

-DEI keeps its distance from the negative mood in the domestic market, as the stock hasn’t fallen in November. Although it has surpassed €16 intraday before, it closed above this milestone last Friday for the first time in 16 years. It stopped at €16.13, with the next highest close recorded on September 1, 2009, at €16.62. DEI’s performance this year exceeds 30%, and its market capitalization approaches €6 billion.

-Motor Oil has been taking small “steps” upward recently, more than compensating for any losses along the way. As a result, its share has climbed above €26.7, within striking distance of the year’s high of €27. Its 2025 return reaches 29.55%, approaching a valuation of €3 billion. A positive catalyst is the Board’s decision to distribute an interim dividend of €0.35 per share for this fiscal year. The ex-dividend date is set for December 23, with payment following on January 5. Goldman Sachs sees a strong outlook for the group’s Q3 results, to be announced Wednesday, November 19, maintaining a price target of €28. Piraeus Securities has upgraded the target price to €30.5 from €29.8 previously.

Tomorrow’s Investor Day for TITAN

-With record operating profit of €474 million and a treasury full of cash, TITAN Group holds its Investor Day tomorrow. Free cash flow exceeded €307 million (compared to €275 million last year), while net debt fell by half to €302 million from €622 million in December 2024. Recently, Fitch upgraded TITAN’s credit rating to BB+ with a positive outlook, which management quickly leveraged by announcing a new €10 million share buyback program, despite already holding more than 5% of its shares. This concentration of treasury shares has sparked discussion and speculation about placements or strategic alliances. Analysts expect to hear about this long-term strategy tomorrow, while the Group has comfortably surpassed a market capitalization of €3.1 billion despite turbulence on the Athens Stock Exchange.

The top performer on the Greek Stock Exchange

-Four years ago, ILYDA was a small IT company with €4.3 million in revenue and €430,000 in net profit. Its CEO, Vasilis Anyfantakis, a well-connected businessman from Crete, led ILYDA with zero debt to undertake significant public and private projects, leveraging EU and state subsidies. In 2024, the company reached €7.1 million in revenue and €3.8 million in net profit—a 65% increase in revenue and 788% in net profit over three years. At the start of 2025, it decided to inject additional liquidity into the stock via a share capital increase with free share distribution (1 new share for every 2 old ones). So far this year, ILYDA is the absolute champion in Athens Stock Exchange returns (+301%), trading at €5.34/share, with a market value of €75.3 million.

How many Greek companies use Artificial Intelligence in production?

-The European Investment Bank (EIB) conducted a large pan-European survey to assess AI adoption in production. In Finland, 66% of businesses use AI, 58% in Denmark, and 55% in the Netherlands. EIB’s 2025 survey shows only 19% of Greek companies use generative AI, placing the country last among 27 EU member states. Even countries with a similar economic profile, like Portugal and Croatia, exceed Greece with 24% and 22% respectively. With thousands of very small enterprises, Greece seems to have limited access to capital for digital transformation. At the same time, the focus on traditional sectors—tourism, shipping, retail—doesn’t create the pressure for rapid digital upgrade seen in industrial economies. Available European funds for digital transformation are absorbed slowly, while regulatory uncertainty and bureaucracy hinder pilot initiatives. European competitors automate processes, improve productivity, and develop new products with AI. Greek companies lag behind.

The party at Hard Rock Café

-Lots of people and several celebrities honored Michalis Karloutsos, President of Hard Rock in Greece, at his name day party at Hard Rock Cafe in Monastiraki. Sakis Rouvas and Antonis Remos appeared, along with politicians and businesspeople. The evening’s musical backdrop was provided by a street band, Hermaphrodites Child, discovered by Karloutsos while playing on Ermou Street. Karloutsos spoke particularly of his son Stelios (“Stevie”), though the event had a bigger backdrop: the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino Athens being built at Elliniko.

Where Trump’s 50-year mortgages lead

-President Trump announced Saturday the introduction of 50-year home loans, with the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, confirming the government is working on this “game changer” proposal. Trump naturally compared this initiative to President Roosevelt’s “revolution” with the introduction of the 30-year mortgage. Essentially, a $400,000 loan at 6.575% (current US mortgage rates) lowers the monthly payment from $2,038 (30 years) to $1,822 (50 years)—just $216 less. The real savings percentage decreases as the term lengthens, with the difference between 40- and 50-year loans only $69. Naturally, the total loan cost skyrockets. Today in the US, the average homebuyer spends almost 38% of monthly income on loan payments, according to Redfin. In any case, for Trump’s initiative for the next generation to be implemented, Congressional approval is required, as the Dodd-Frank Act from the 2008 crisis still limits “Qualified Mortgages” to 30 years.