-Hello, good morning and happy new month. We’re heading full speed toward Christmas with weather that only the other day barely reminded us of winter—at least in Athens—with traffic now torturing us horribly in our daily lives, and just wait, it’ll get even worse as we approach the holidays. Political news these days isn’t exactly thrilling, but it’s packed with many, many small, extremely interesting bits worth commenting on—if not outright gossiping about. For example, I just have to comment on the joint appearance of Venizelos with Karamanlis (Rafina) at an event by the newspaper “Demokratia”—not because the former showed up at a paper that has harshly criticised him (that’s not strange at all to me). But you know, that old “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” trend is very in fashion lately in politics. And let me explain: how is it that suddenly Karamanlis, Venizelos and Samaras—who all dislike Mitsotakis for different reasons—have become buddies and now “hang out” so often? Karamanlis and Samaras have been scaring us for years with doom-and-gloom warnings on national issues. I’m not saying they aren’t entitled to have opinions and express them freely—after all, they were prime ministers—but if you took literally everything they’ve said over the years, Greece should have lost 5–6 islands to the Turks by now. For the moment, though, the Americans keep flying in and out for business in Greece, the Greece–Cyprus–Israel electricity cable is moving forward, Chevron’s drilling projects too, and the American LNG with the “Vertical Corridor” was signed in Athens. So I don’t think their predictions about disaster and national losses were all that accurate. Now Venizelos has joined the “doom crew”—and of course his specialty is economic catastrophe—and he says that once Recovery Fund financing ends in 2027, we’ll sink. Now, I don’t know if he would have said the same if Mitsotakis had made him President of the Republic (maybe he would—hence why he didn’t pick him), but this little “we’re doomed” tambourine routine is certainly not new. The earliest to play that tune was Alekos Papadopoulos, then Tasos Giannitsis kept it going, and now Venizelos has taken the baton. Anyway, passions are human and the exchange of ideas is free—but the Venizelos–Karamanlis romance (title stolen from yesterday’s Kathimerini) I did not expect!

Pier campaigning…
-On to government matters: Pierrakakis has been in Dublin since yesterday on a scheduled visit to the new Finance Minister and the country’s central banker, but of course he also met Donohoe, the former Eurogroup president and a strong supporter of him in the race for the position. The minister is campaigning hard and hopes to cross the finish line first. What helps is that the Belgians are tangled up in their refusal to unfreeze the Russian funds (around €140 billion) held in their country for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The Baltic states are furious with them. We’ll see…

Eyes on London
-While the closure of Venezuelan airspace to American aircraft creates new headaches for markets that had grown accustomed to low oil prices, the Greek investment community has its eyes set on the 4th Morgan Stanley and Athens Stock Exchange Greek Investment Conference, which begins today in London. The programme includes a “closed” Round Table with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis with a small group of invited guests, followed by an “open” discussion between the PM and Clare Woodman, CEO of Morgan Stanley International. There will be a panel with N. Stathopoulos (BC Partners), M. Rigas (Energean), and E. Mytilineos (Metlen Energy and Metals), and another with the CEOs of the four systemic banks. In the Energy section, A. Siamisis (HELLENiQ ENERGY), M. Manousakis (ADMIE), and P. Tzanetakis (Motor Oil) will speak. Giorgos Stassis of PPC will have a discussion with Yawen Chen (Thomson Reuters). For tomorrow, an “Investor Breakfast” is scheduled with Minister of National Economy Kyriakos Pierrakakis and a few guests, followed by a fireside chat with the two protagonists of the moment: Pierrakakis and Stéphane Boujnah of Euronext. Throughout the two-day event, one-to-one and group meetings will be held between senior executives of Greek companies and international institutional investors. The conference is taking place at Morgan Stanley’s conference centre and will gather 42 listed companies of the Athens Stock Exchange. This particular roadshow is especially important because the Athens Exchange is on the verge of an upgrade, which means a partial shift in the funds currently tracking the market. So whatever is said today will colour expectations for the ASE’s trajectory and upcoming portfolio moves. Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Fierra Capital, Amundi, Wellington are among the investment firms that will be grilling the Greek listed companies.

The Mitsotakis–Meimarakis meeting
-I hear that a very interesting meeting took place a few days ago at the Maximos Mansion. K.M. met with MEP and former party president Vangelis Meimarakis, who is now serving his second term in Brussels. He is considered the soul of the party and has run plenty of party congresses, but this time the role they discussed—and which he will take on—is different and much more European. Ahead of Greece’s EU Presidency in the second half of 2027, K.M. and Meimarakis agreed that the latter will assume a special parliamentary role, something foreseen in the framework of a national Presidency. In practice, this means he will act as coordinator for the arrivals of ministers and deputy ministers from foreign countries to Greece from July until the end of the Presidency and will generally oversee the entire parliamentary aspect of the Presidency. Clearly, K.M. wants to “warm up” as many people as he can right now.

Payments from OPEKEPE
-The government is on alert with the farmers and knows that the advance payment of the Basic Aid won’t be enough to ease tensions. So all payments announced by the government must be completed within December (€1.2 billion more, in addition to the €500 million recently paid). Chatzidakis is anxious and constantly presses OPEKEPE and the Ministry of Rural Development’s mechanisms to complete all payments before the holidays. Of course, the government will also have to wage a big communication battle to counter, as government officials say, the opposition’s nihilism and that of certain farm-union leaders…

Tsipras—book
-On Wednesday at the “Pallas” theatre, Tsipras is set to present his book, and naturally the real interest is not how many but who will be sitting in the audience at this open-entry event. The publicity around “Ithaca” has been huge indeed; how this will all develop I think will depend on what Tsipras does over the coming months. I did, however, ask—because I was very curious—what advice he had received from the French specialists of Publicis Groupe, who are handling his rebranding, about whether he should publish the book or not. Their answer was positive, though I’m told he would have published it anyway.

The hour of truth at the Athens Bar Association
-After 23:00 tonight—once the second day of voting at the ABA is completed—we will know the duo heading to the second round. Based on rolling polls, the frontrunners are Dimitris Anastasopoulos, associated with ND and running a very active campaign, and PASOK-leaning Andreas Koutsolampros, who used to be elected as top-voted council member under Verve­sos. It’s said that Verve­sos supports him behind the scenes, while Michael Kalantzopoulos (from Androulakis’s circle) and left-wing Thanasis Kampagiannis, who has strong appeal among younger lawyers, also hope to make the runoff. Among the little moments passed on to me from yesterday’s voting was the appearance of Alpha TV host Stamatina Tsimtsili outside the Association, since her husband Themis Sofos, running with the “Ergatiki” faction, is also contesting the presidency—though with slim chances of making the second round.

OLYMPOS and CVC negotiating for DELTA
-And let’s move to market news, which is showing significant activity. My column’s antennae have “caught” two deals now in preparation. For one of them I’ll need a few more days, so let’s move to the food sector, where—according to information—talks are under way between the Sarantis brothers of OLYMPOS and CVC for DELTA (only DELTA, not Vivartia). CVC is known to want to divest, while the Hellenic Dairies Group of the Sarantis brothers is the undisputed leader of the sector with sales expected to exceed €900 million this year, whereas DELTA’s sales last year were €291 million. I also remind you that brothers Takis and Michalis Sarantis—as well as the new generation now involved in management—bought one of DELTA’s “silverware”, United Milk in Bulgaria, in 2022, strengthening their presence in the local market, while the group’s expansion mood is further confirmed by the recent acquisition of DODONI. I asked my source whether, if the deal goes through, it will pass Competition Commission review, and I got the response: “Why not? There’s MEVGAL, Kolios and many others.”

The Russians and the animal feed

–Since we brought up DELTA, if you remember, the Russians — the former main shareholders of DODONI — had held on to a 25% stake in the company. Eventually, in 2023, that 25% was sold by SI Foods (Lime Capital Partners) to CVC, which secured 100% control of DODONI, transferred it to VIVARTIA, and ultimately it ended up in the group Hellenic Dairy Shops of the Sarantis brothers. I’m told, therefore, that the Russians, former main shareholders of DODONI, have purchased an animal-feed company that DELTA owned. What business logic this investment has, I honestly can’t figure out, but I assume they have some business plan we’re not aware of.

Sudden postponement of the inauguration of the Crete–Attica cable although everything was ready

–The news dropped like a thunderbolt. No official explanation has been given, but information converges that the decision to postpone the inauguration of the Crete–Attica electrical interconnection — scheduled for December 10 in the presence of the Prime Minister — “locked in” at the Maximos Mansion. What exactly intervened, no one can say with certainty, since lately every issue concerning the operator is burning hot: from the Cyprus cable to the future of the oil-fired units that will remain operational in Crete even after the big interconnection starts operating, to the €1 billion capital increase sought by ADMIE. It did not go unnoticed that at Friday’s Greek–Arab forum, CEO Manos Manousakis made sure to publicly stress the need for support and financial reinforcement, confirming the strong investment interest from the United Arab Emirates. As he also noted, there are ongoing discussions with TAQA (the state energy company of Abu Dhabi) about a potential equity participation in the Greece–Cyprus–Israel interconnection, and he referred as well to the progress of the Saudi Greek Interconnection, established in February 2024 as a special-purpose subsidiary of ADMIE and the National Grid (the Transmission System Operator of Saudi Arabia), in which each side holds 50%. As stated, once the study for the Greece–Saudi Arabia electrical interconnection is completed, it will move to the stage of a final investment decision, and it will obviously attract international capital to materialize, since it is a high-cost project. Particularly noteworthy, however, were the messages the ADMIE CEO sent during his remarks. Manousakis spoke of the rapid rise of RES and the need to expand interconnections, clearly implying that the current funding model is insufficient. The state shareholders of the operators cannot shoulder alone the weight of the projects ahead, and the solution points toward public–private partnerships. The electricity-transmission sector — previously considered closed, with limited access for private investors — is opening up. ADMIE is asking for “flexibility,” “incentives,” “adjusted rules.” In other words, regulatory facilitation so that funds and foreign investors can get into the game. And not just as lenders, but as shareholders as well. Manousakis and the head of ADMIE Holdings, Giannis Karampelas, will have the opportunity to communicate all these ideas to the international investment community this week in London, where they will attend the Morgan Stanley conference mentioned earlier. All eyes will be on them — not only because of the cables, but mainly because of the strategy for the day after.

Four senior executives of Piraeus Bank join the new Board of Directors of National Insurance

–The “promise” that combining forces can create large-scale results — and certainly value far above the €600 million Piraeus Bank paid to acquire National Insurance — was given by the bank’s CEO, Christos Megalou, on Friday night in a meeting with the company’s staff. He said that after seeing what the insurer’s network achieves, studying the performance of Bancassurance under the previous regime (i.e., in collaboration with NBG) and also the Bancassurance dynamics Piraeus had with its previous providers, he arrived at the strategic idea of joining forces for greater momentum and higher profits. Piraeus Bank has set the goal of National Insurance profits exceeding €100 million in 2028. Procedurally, four members of the bank’s senior management are entering the National Insurance board. They are the bank’s CFO, Theodoros Gnardelis; the Senior General Manager heading retail banking, Vasileios Koutentakis; the Senior General Manager heading human resources of the Piraeus Group, Giorgos Georgopoulos; and the Senior General Manager responsible for the group’s operational units, Charalambos Margaritis.

Avramar: The Canadians and the proposal to the Arabs

–In the coming days the banks must resolve the Gordian knot of Avramar, which is now burdened with short-term debt obligations of €340 million, out of a total €580.23 million, at the end of 2024. The wedge driven by the Canadian Cooke — a global player in aquaculture — has shaken up the landscape, as it comes with very attractive features. What matters most to the creditor banks is that the Canadians are putting up cash immediately, buying loans and avoiding the long and deeply bureaucratic pre-bankruptcy restructuring procedures required to rehabilitate the company. Total recovery for the banks may exceed €130–140 million, and another advantage is that Cooke is an investor who knows the sector extremely well. On the other hand, the banks have already signed a framework agreement with Aqua Bridge for Avramar, following a competitive process that designated the Arabs as preferred investors, with a proposal that includes a loan haircut of around 70% and a seven-year repayment of the remaining obligations. Given the MoU, such agreements — as sources close to the process say — do not break easily, and a unilateral change would bring complications. Consequently, reports indicate that Aqua Bridge will be offered — or, if you prefer, given the chance — to adjust its proposal so that it acquires the characteristics of the Canadian offer and maximizes capital recovery for the banks. It remains to be seen how they will respond and how the Gordian knot will be cut.

Banks rev up their engines – Target: €13 billion in credit expansion

–Don’t let it fool you, bankers say — the 5.4% drop in total financing of the domestic economy in October. Indeed, that’s what the Bank of Greece statistics recorded, but that figure does not reflect the overall performance of lending the banks will show in 2025. The decrease is partly artificial, because in October 2024 the banks had disbursed the large €2.55 billion syndicated loan for Attiki Odos, and comparing with last year the October 2025 figure appears weaker. However, banks are revving up their engines especially in corporate lending, and the target is for credit expansion to exceed €13 billion — something achievable if one considers the completion of the Egnatia Odos concession and the financial closing of the transaction at the end of the year, totaling €1.35 billion.