Hello, happy holidays, wishing you health and joy (if possible). We are in the middle of the festive period with sunny and pleasant weather, though it has been quite a hassle for travelers who went on winter getaways, even amidst roadblocks. From the official data we have (airports, national roads), traffic hasn’t decreased compared to last year despite the obstacles, though there were quite a few cancellations (I hear especially in Pelion), as well as arrivals at resorts delayed by a day or two. Meanwhile, what farmers gained from all this fuss is hard to understand—perhaps only a few points in public support for the KKE, which has been persistent these days—while most union leaders realize the matter isn’t likely to continue much further and would do well to enter a formal dialogue, gain a bit more (they were given everything except Europe’s disarmament!) and then remove the tractors from the roads. Last week, we witnessed the drama of the old-school political figure Anestidis (a longtime supporter of Rafina), who, after claiming to be a blue supporter since the ERE era, was almost crying on TV with a cheese pie in hand, insisting he did nothing, while… the prosecutor’s investigation found otherwise. The day before yesterday, there was another “star,” a certain Bota, who claimed that “the Mitsotakis family cut his child’s milk via account seizures,” while pretending to know nothing; yet the prosecutor’s official memo showed he had declared around twenty fake fields and received over a hundred thousand euros from OPEKEPE. I hear that 3–4 other farmers, not union leaders, are in the same category, whose accounts were frozen, and of course, they don’t come out to speak with the brazenness of the farm union leaders.

Dialogue…

Logically, some movement regarding dialogue is expected from today. Yesterday, another public invitation was made by the representative Marinakis—and possibly Mitsotakis himself. Ultimately, it’s likely that a meeting will take place with Tsiaras and some farmer representatives, mainly from Northern Greece. At KKE, while serious professional farm union leaders always knew how far to push things, due to perceived leftist threats (Zoi, Karystianou, etc.), there’s concern about losing influence, and people seem somewhat confused.

Time for reshuffle speculation

Every year around this time, just before the New Year, reshuffle scenarios appear—it’s like the “Halcyon days.” This year, the scenario suggests that K.M will wait for “OPEKEPE file No.2” to see who will face issues from the case, and after those involved resign, he will proceed with a reshuffle, not just there, but also in other positions he wants to change. The latest version I’ve heard is that, from the recorded conversations of the European Prosecutor, a deputy and a party official from ND are involved, not a minister (seriously). So, as things stand, nothing urgent is happening. How Mitsotakis will execute a broader reshuffle at this time—and who will be replaced or added without upsetting those left out—I cannot imagine yet. But we are here to write; the column exists…

Mitsotakis interview

The days may be relaxed, but Mitsotakis wants to review the past year, which wasn’t easy. That’s why he will give his last interview of 2025 on Action24’s show “Better Late” with Athinaida Nega, expected to air tonight.

Environmental Studies for Marine Parks

Another act of national sovereignty is unfolding these days: the Ministry of Environment and Energy is preparing to publish Special Environmental Studies for two new national marine parks, Ionian and South Aegean 1–Southern Cyclades. As Minister Stavros Papastavrou promised, this will happen before the end of the year. The next step is sending the relevant Presidential Decrees to the Council of State. With the two new parks, Greece formally—and earlier than expected—reaches the 30×30 target (over 30% of its marine ecosystem protected by 2030), specifically placing about 35% of its marine areas under protection.

Nikitas and the 5%

Over the weekend, it may have gone unnoticed that Parliament President Nikitas Kaklamanis, in an interview, supported raising the parliamentary entry threshold from 3% to 5%. This implies an intervention in the electoral law, something many ND deputies want, though Mitsotakis rejects it. Even though Nikitas shared his personal view, he does not speak randomly, as he gauges the “temperature” among deputies. Some clever observers think an initiative could come “from below” rather than from M.M.

Pierrakakis and GEK TERNA bring good news

Starting with the positive market news, as today we also have sad mishaps with EXAE. Firstly, Pierrakakis seems determined to tidy up his ministry’s mess. From an interview with “Kathimerini,” we learned that by the end of the year—possibly today—the Ministry of Finance will announce the contractor for the Property Leasing and Reacquisition Agency for vulnerable borrowers. I won’t claim the issue is resolved until the tender concludes, but it’s a step forward, as the Agency, enabling “red” loan liquidations, has been pending for over five years—maybe more; honestly, I don’t remember exactly. The second significant event in the coming days is tomorrow, Tuesday 30/12, the signing of the concession for the Egnatia Odos for 35 years to the GEK TERNA (75%) – Egis (25%) consortium. The state will receive €1.269 billion, ending a pending matter dating back to August 2021, when TAIPED—now in a different form—awarded Egnatia to GEK TERNA – Egis.

New EYDAP tariffs approved tomorrow

Also note that tomorrow, December 30, the proposal from EYDAP regarding major changes in water and sewage tariffs will be presented for approval to the Regulatory Authority of Waste, Energy, and Water (RAAEY). According to the proposal, the fixed charge will triple from €1 to €3, now including a €1 sewage fee, along with a doubling of water costs (from €1 to €2). These changes mark a substantial adjustment to EYDAP’s tariffs after 17 years of stagnant, low rates. The Ministry of Environment and Energy, EYDAP, and RAAEY are fully coordinated, aiming for the increases to take effect early next year, generating estimated additional annual revenue of around €400 million over the next five years, enhancing the company’s financial sustainability and enabling investments in water and sewage infrastructure.

The fiasco with the general meeting of EXAE

Now to the unfortunate mishaps. Not everything was conducted by the book, as the outgoing EXAE chairman claimed, at the recent extraordinary general meeting of EXAE, which now has to be repeated. The December 22 general meeting, which was supposed to “seal” the developments for the transition to Euronext, turned into a legal thriller. It all started with objections from shareholder and lawyer Konstantinos Drougas, who “picked” the dates. The invitation should have been issued by November 28 but was only sent on December 1—a three-day difference, which legally translates into a “legality issue.” The outgoing chairman, Giorgos Chantzinikolaou, insisted, wrongly as it turned out, that everything was “by the book” and completed the process, but the legal advisors apparently saw potential invalidity. To avoid lingering “shadows” and objections over the new board, the administration decided to take a safety step. Therefore, the previous GM is now considered “never held,” and shareholders are called again on January 20, 2026. If a quorum is not reached (likely, given the mobilization of the canceled GM), the meeting will move to January 27. The agenda? Exactly the same: a new, smaller board—reducing members from 11 to 9. The dual goal is to reduce operating costs (confirmed by Chantzinikolaou) and fully align with the Euronext model. Essentially, the Greek stock exchange is beginning to “speak” the language of the pan-European group, with Giannos Kondopoulos remaining CEO to manage the transition.

Holiday embarrassment of magnitude

Don’t expect peace on January 20. Some shareholders have already drawn their “swords,” questioning both the legality of Euronext’s acquisition of shares and the validity of proxy voting. It’s certain that EXAE’s legal team will have a lot of work in 2026. Personally, being naturally suspicious, I don’t dismiss market rumors suggesting that behind the GM fiasco could lie the difficult relationship between Chantzinikolaou and Kondopoulos. Kondopoulos, initially far from enthusiastic about Euronext, changed his stance after a conciliatory approach, and since the CEO-chairman relationship hasn’t always been smooth, it’s possible the dates got confused. But, to be fair, Kondopoulos as CEO (earning €500,000) is also exposed, since this is a full-blown embarrassment. Pier worked hard to bring Euronext, and the meeting will be repeated due to a three-day miscount? That’s life: you get what you pay for. In EXAE’s case, the saying “after the removal from the treasury” seems fitting.

Many “brides,” one deal, and a dividend that makes noise

It’s known in the market that National Bank is very close to a deal with NN. According to sources, technical issues still prevent an official announcement. Banking insiders emphasize that, especially now that Piraeus Bank finalized its agreement with Ethniki Insurance, the National Bank management will not announce results in late February or early March without first finalizing and disclosing this deal. The part still unfinalized concerns collaboration with a non-life insurance company, as the NN deal relates exclusively to health-life insurance. In the past, National Bank was close to Allianz, but today there are more “suitors.” Many insurance companies are offering very attractive proposals, creating a strategic and financial dilemma for the management. Despite this, National Bank has, supposedly, the “disadvantage” of capital accumulation but maintains by far the strongest balance sheet among banks. With no Swiss franc exposure, no step-up, low fees for managing NPLs via servicers, and no pending synthetic securitizations, the bank is expected to distribute a dividend significantly higher than the already announced 60%. Notably, a JP Morgan report estimated distributions could reach up to 100% of 2026 profits. For 2025, the 60% payout is considered conservative, with many expecting dividends around 70–80%.

Paulson’s stake rises… without purchases

Paulson & Co’s stake in Piraeus Bank rose slightly to 14.18%, from roughly 14% previously. However, this change was not due to new stock purchases but purely technical reasons: the bank canceled 14 million shares in an interim €100 million distribution. As a result, Paulson appears to hold a larger percentage of the bank without materially changing its investment position or indicating any substantive development.

End of an era for Marinopoulos–Marks & Spencer

Quietly, one of the oldest partnerships in Greek retail ended. The Marinopoulos family fully exited the joint venture with the British multinational Marks & Spencer, selling its remaining 20%. The sale of Marinopoulos Holding’s stake occurred just before the end of the last fiscal year, March 2025, according to financial statements released on Christmas Day. This marks the gradual divestment of the Marinopoulos family from a partnership spanning decades, accelerated after the group’s collapse and the crisis years. For the record, in 2024/25, the Greek company recorded: sales €71.65 million, net profit €2.05 million, cash €10.05 million.

Proodeftiki: Trial postponement and critical shareholder meeting on January 5

The first legal battle between major shareholder Chrysas Koutla and the board of the listed construction company PROODEFTIKI over the controversial capital increase was postponed to January 22, 2026. This was the second postponement. The initial hearing was scheduled for December 12 but postponed at the company’s representative request due to the lawyer’s unavailability. The rescheduled hearing moved to December 23 but was again postponed by mutual agreement, now to January 22. PROODEFTIKI publicly committed not to complete the announced capital increase before the general meeting on January 5, effectively leaving the critical decision to shareholders. However, the company’s announcement to the Stock Exchange was not entirely accurate, omitting that the first postponement was its own request and the second arose from joint agreement of both parties’ lawyers. The January 5 meeting will decide on the fate of the financing agreement with LDA Capital Ltd signed in September 2022 but never executed. Shareholder participation already exceeds the percentage that initially approved the deal. Koutla’s 16% dissent focuses on the usefulness and prudence of a non-executed agreement, which entails abandoning plans and the pursuit of a strategic investor.

Fragkou buys building on Akti Miaouli

Angeliki Fragkou purchased the iconic building at Akti Miaouli 85 and Flessa 2, where Navios has its offices. She tried to acquire the entire building but hit a wall, as the 4th and 6th floors belong to Cosco Hellas, which has no intention of leaving, and the 2nd floor houses the Hellenic Shipowners’ Association offices, currently undergoing extensive renovation. The association aims to inaugurate the renovated offices before the global shipping event, the Posidonia Exhibition, scheduled for the first week of June 2026.

Dividends… even from the beach

The column has highlighted several times how “golden” the investment by the Arab-Turkish consortium that acquired Astir Vouliagmeni proved to be. Although the iconic complex has now passed into the hands of shipowner Giorgos Prokopios, the former owners continue to receive dividends from profits of previous years. For example, for the recent fiscal year 01.01.2024 – 31.12.2024, the (former) shareholder Apollo Investment Holdco S.A. was allocated a partial dividend of USD 746,873.87 (converted to euros at the applicable exchange rate). It was clarified that “this amount will be used to repay an existing debt to the law firm Dechert LLP, while the remaining profits will stay in the company as retained earnings to maintain liquidity.” Moreover, the General Assembly of Astir Beach S.A. decided to distribute a dividend of €72,882.61 from 2024 profits to the (former) sole shareholder, Apollo Investment Holdco S.A. In other words, they are still collecting even from the beach at Astir.

Danaos’ long-term bet

Danaos’ recent charter of the Rio Grande by Giannis Coustas for MSC impresses more for its duration than the headline rate. At $29,000/day for 32 months, analysts note that it’s not top-of-market but locks in cash flows over a cycle that, despite current strength, remains cyclical. For Danaos and Greek control in this sector, it translates into reduced earnings volatility risk—valued by institutional investors more than short-term freight maximization. In a higher-interest, tighter capital evaluation environment, such agreements serve as cash-flow smoothing tools rather than aggressive growth plays.

Christmas with… orders, not cookies

While most are in a festive mood, Greek shipowners apparently spent Christmas at shipyards. In Greek shipping, there are no holidays, only delivery slots. Last week, Greek owners maintained a “strong presence” in newbuilds, signaling fleet renewal regardless of season or geopolitical climate. TMS Cardiff Marine, of Giorgos Oikonomou, raised the bar by expanding its 11,400 TEU containership program at Zhoushan Changhong with eight orders and two optional LNG dual-fuel ships for 2029 delivery. Simply put, while Brussels debates regulations and targets, Greeks place newbuild orders. Interestingly, there were no Greek deals in the secondhand market. The “gift under the tree” this year is a newbuild, not a secondhand bargain. Over the last 12 months, Greek interests have placed 134 newbuild orders and acquired 179 secondhand ships, sending a clear message: the Greek-owned fleet is not merely renewing—it’s being redesigned for 2026.

Greeks leading in feeders

2025 has emerged as the year of feeder containerships (1,000–3,000 TEU), with Greek shipowners at the forefront globally. According to Intermodal Shipbrokers, feeders remain the only container segment with strong, consistent investment interest despite market fluctuations. Of 133 containerships ordered by Greek interests, 71 are feeders—22.6% of the global orderbook in this category. Globally, 194 new feeders were built in 2025, bringing the total orderbook to 314—nearly triple the year’s start. This is driven by fleet fundamentals and shifting trade flows. The average feeder age exceeds 15 years, with over a quarter over 20 years old, meaning accelerated retirements under stricter environmental standards. Key Greek players include Costamare (Kostis Konstantakopoulos), Danaos (Giannis Coustas), and Chartworld Shipping (Lou Kollakis), often pairing orders with long-term charters. Capital Group is especially active with 19 of 35 feeders on order, and Minerva Group (Andreas Martinos Jr.) is strengthening its container presence. New entrants like Alpha Bulkers (Anna Angelicou), Marla Dry Bulk (Latsis family), and Venergy Maritime (V Group/Bryon Vassiliadis) highlight feeders as a strategic pillar for the next phase of Greek container shipping.

China changes the game in silver

The Chinese government announced that from January 1, 2026, new restrictions on silver exports will require government licenses for each shipment. This year was already historic for silver, with prices up +175% and an eight-month streak, the first since 1980. On the Shanghai exchange, silver trades at $85/oz, $5 higher than in the U.S. In December alone, silver rose +41%, its best monthly performance since December 1979. Along with gold, precious metals added $16 trillion in capitalization this year. The rally started from the dollar’s weakness, which lost -9% in 2025—the worst year since 2017. Fed rate cuts and POTUS announcements fueled the rally, with Trump stating rates could fall to 1% or lower, pending the new Fed Chair. Bonds are under pressure; bond ETFs have dropped -12% since September, reflecting high long-term inflation expectations. China’s export restrictions and the structural supply deficit have intensified the market. Industrial demand (electronics, solar, EV batteries) remains strong, and investment demand is rising amid geopolitical uncertainty, making 2026 a challenging year.

Solved: U.S. inflation mystery

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. counterpart of Greece’s ELSTAT, is the main agency measuring labor, wages, productivity, and inflation since 1884. In December, BLS announced a sudden, unexpected drop in November inflation to 2.7%, against analysts’ 3%+ estimates. However, it was revealed that almost 40% of the structural inflation data for October–November relied on estimates, not actual prices, due to the prolonged government shutdown. BLS is designed to track 90,000 monthly price observations across 200 categories. Historically, estimated entries covered ~10% when data were missing; this year, for five consecutive months, estimates exceeded 30%. This issue affects more than statistics. When the Fed sets rates based on data one-third extrapolated, monetary policy shifts from science to philosophical speculation. Markets react to numbers increasingly reflecting models, not reality. BLS should theoretically rely on extensive household and business surveys, with hundreds of thousands of monthly observations, making credibility critical for economic policy. The recent rise in estimated vs. measured data raises analysts’ concerns.