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Global aviation: Fatalities in accidents increased, but the relative risk is decreasing

The number of victims rose compared to 2024, but the long-term risk of flying continues to decline

Newsroom January 3 09:18

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Last year, 418 people lost their lives in accidents involving civil aircraft worldwide, according to figures released yesterday, Friday.

Based on data from the Aviation Safety Network presented by the German aviation industry association BDL, the victims included 352 passengers, 33 crew members, and 33 people on the ground.

In 2024, 334 deaths had been recorded in aviation tragedies.

Despite the increase in the number of victims—which BDL describes as short-term—the long-term ratio of deaths to passengers continues to fall. The statistical probability of dying in a crash or other aircraft accident in 2025 stood at 1 in 11,459,330.

In the 1970s, the risk was far higher, with the ratio at 1 in 264,000.

In some years during that period, more than 2,000 lives were lost in aviation accidents, despite the much lower volume of flights at the time.

According to estimates by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), 4.7 billion people were expected to travel by air in 2025—more than ten times as many as in the 1970s, when the number did not exceed 440 million.

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The statistics cited by BDL concern aircraft with a capacity of at least 14 seats. Data for smaller aircraft are not available. No figures for military aviation in any country are included.

Last year’s worst accident was recorded on June 12, when a Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed seconds after takeoff in Ahmedabad, India. A total of 229 passengers and 12 crew members lost their lives; only one passenger miraculously survived. An additional 19 people were killed on the ground.

Investigations into the cause of the sudden loss of thrust in both engines of the aircraft have not yet been completed.

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