S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Greece’s sovereign credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, according to its latest report on rating trends across advanced European economies in 2026. The agency acknowledges the clear improvement in Greece’s macroeconomic and fiscal performance, while stressing that the path to a further upgrade remains closely tied to addressing two long-standing weaknesses: external imbalances and the high debt stock.

S&P expects the Greek economy to continue growing at a faster pace than the average of advanced European economies. Specifically, it forecasts GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, with momentum supported by investment activity, the inflow of European funds, and resilient domestic demand. At the same time, GDP per capita continues to rise, strengthening Greece’s gradual convergence with the European average.

Fiscal improvement and debt reduction

On the fiscal front, S&P records an improved balance profile, with Greece returning to a surplus trajectory in 2024 and maintaining a marginal surplus in 2025, before shifting to a small deficit in 2026. This path is accompanied by a steady decline in the net public debt-to-GDP ratio, which S&P estimates will fall from 191.8% in 2020 to 126% in 2026, continuing its downward trend in subsequent years.

S&P notes that this debt reduction is a key pillar supporting the current rating. However, it stresses that it is not sufficient on its own to trigger an upgrade as long as vulnerabilities in the external balance persist.

External balance, import dependence and external debt

According to S&P, the current account deficit remains the main constraint on Greece’s credit profile and is expected to remain close to -6% of GDP in 2026. The agency directly links this issue to the Greek economy’s structural dependence on imports, underlining that a meaningful and sustainable improvement in external imbalances is a prerequisite for a rating upgrade.

At the same time, S&P highlights Greece’s very high net external debt, which—despite following a declining trajectory—remains at levels that compare unfavorably with other advanced European economies. Based on S&P’s projections, net external debt will continue to decline gradually in the coming years, but not yet to levels that would fully alleviate the agency’s concerns.

S&P makes clear that a potential upgrade of Greece’s sovereign rating could materialize only if there is a substantial and durable improvement in external imbalances, either through a reduction in import dependence or through a faster decline in external debt, a large portion of which remains public.

By contrast, a marked deterioration in fiscal performance or a reversal in the downward trend of public debt could exert negative pressure on the rating, despite Greece’s positive growth outlook.