March hasn’t even entered and already several strategic analysts think the all-time high European stocks hit this week may be the “ceiling” for 2026, according to Bloomberg.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index is expected to end 2026 almost unchanged from the all-time high of 630 points set on Wednesday, based on the median estimate of 17 forecasts. The favourable conditions that have supported European markets so far appear to have largely run out, while expectations of double-digit earnings growth for listed companies are seen as challenging.

On the positive side, few are forecasting large losses as public spending and low interest rates are expected to continue to support the European economy. HSBC remains the most optimistic, setting a target of 670 points – a margin of almost 7% upside. Just two firms, TFS Derivatives and Bank of America, see a risk of a fall of 10% or more.

“European equities have posted a strong run and are fast approaching our year-end target, while revisions to earnings per share estimates remain negative, mainly due to internationally exposed companies,” said Beata Manthey, head of global and European equity strategy at Citigroup. “We are watching for signs of a broader earnings downturn. For now, we clearly prefer domestically-oriented stocks to those with strong international exposure.”