The submission today of the new OPEKEPE case file to Parliament is expected to trigger a domino effect within the government, as Kyriakos Mitsotakis must examine the included conversations and make his decisions.

Based on current data, the expected cabinet reshuffle is likely to be targeted, focusing on replacing ministers who may leave the government due to their involvement. However, it is not yet clear how many this will involve, despite last June’s precedent when all ministers mentioned in the case file resigned. Ultimately, Mitsotakis may still opt for a broader, horizontal decision.

At the forefront are 3+1 individuals who are “flirting” with exit:

• Minister of Rural Development Kostas Tsiaras
• Minister for Climate Crisis and Civil Protection Giannis Kefalogiannis
• Deputy Health Minister Dimitris Vartzopoulos
• ND Secretary Kostas Skrekas, who holds a particularly key party position

The government is waiting to review the recorded conversations to determine whether ministers are directly involved or whether references come indirectly through associates or OPEKEPE officials. Decisions will depend on this, though Mitsotakis does not currently seem inclined toward a wide reshuffle.

Some government officials argue behind the scenes that a bolder political move is needed to get ahead of the damage caused by the ongoing flow of case files from the European Public Prosecutor.

At the same time, officials firmly deny scenarios of early elections—considered poorly timed—despite renewed speculation. Sources suggest recent comments by Kostis Hatzidakis were aimed more at boosting party morale than signaling elections.

Felony charges and key decisions

A critical factor for Mitsotakis will be how to handle cases where felony prosecutions are being requested. According to reports, among the “group of 11,” this concerns Kostas Ach. Karamanlis and Katerina Papakosta, though the exact content of their conversations remains to be seen. In Karamanlis’ case, the call reportedly involves an associate rather than himself.

Some sources say the more “difficult to manage” cases also include Skrekas and former deputy minister Foteini Arabatzi, whose case falls under the law on ministerial responsibility.

Depending on the severity of the alleged offenses and the content of the conversations, tougher decisions may follow, potentially affecting ND electoral lists. In such cases, the government could proceed with “decapitations,” asking MPs to resign their seats rather than face expulsion.

In some instances, prosecutors are reassessing conversations from 2021 already included in the initial OPEKEPE case file submitted last June. In others, new conversations have emerged involving figures previously mentioned.

In any case, a major political challenge for the government is the likelihood of a continuing series of case files, driven by the risk of statutes of limitation (five years for misdemeanors), with prosecutors reviewing wiretaps year by year. Under this logic, another case file—covering 2022—could follow in the coming months.