Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the European Union’s transport commissioner, said in an interview with Reuters that there are no signs of an impending shortage of aviation fuel in Europe, even though the conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted global energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route connecting the Gulf to global markets, has remained largely closed for the past three months, reducing oil supplies by approximately 14 million barrels per day, or about 14% of global demand.

So far, the European Union has weathered the disruption, as the Middle East accounts for roughly 20% of its jet fuel imports. Supplies from the United States and Nigeria have largely filled the gap.

Some Routes May Be Canceled, Ticket Prices Could Rise

“There is currently no shortage of aircraft fuel in Europe. We have no indications that we will face a shortage in the near future,” Tzitzikostas told Reuters, adding that regional airports face the greatest risk.

The main concern is the sharp increase in prices. According to the International Air Transport Association, aviation fuel accounts for between 25% and 30% of airlines’ operating costs.

“That is why we are seeing some airlines choose to cancel routes that no longer make economic sense,” Tzitzikostas said.

Passengers may not feel the full impact of higher fares until later this year or next year, as airlines’ fuel hedging contracts expire. However, the commissioner noted that the situation “varies greatly from one airline to another.”

Analysts expect oil prices to average around $90 per barrel this year, representing a 40% increase since February.

Looking toward the end of the year, Tzitzikostas warned that conditions could become “very difficult” if Middle Eastern energy supplies remain constrained.

“It is crucial that the war ends and that the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and this must happen as soon as possible,” he said. “We must always keep in mind that Europe is prepared. We maintain emergency reserves in our member states.”

He added that the European Commission would coordinate any release of strategic reserves and that there is currently no need to discuss redistributing stockpiles among member states.

“For the Moment, There Is a Degree of Stability”

Tehran and Washington have held talks since the ceasefire that took effect in early April, but progress has been limited and violations have occurred repeatedly.

Sources told Reuters this week that even if an agreement is reached soon, it is likely to be temporary, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining under Iranian control.

Beyond aviation, a prolonged conflict could have wider consequences for the global economy. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned that such a scenario could sharply slow economic growth to levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It is not only a matter of aviation fuel or fuel in general,” Tzitzikostas added. “We could even face a global recession.”