Hello. Today, the funeral of Vagia Nestora, who was killed a few days ago by an improvised explosive device attack in Thessaloniki, will take place in Kozani. Prime Minister Mitsotakis, many members of the cabinet, and New Democracy officials will attend the funeral, but of course that is not enough. Because—for the time being—neither have the killers been arrested, nor have we heard any concrete announcement about getting such murderers off the streets.

What Mitsotakis and Erdoğan said

They may not have held a bilateral meeting, but Mitsotakis and Erdogan spoke briefly yesterday while standing during the opening of the official part of the summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was also present and afterward played Pontius Pilate to some extent, following the classic tactic of saying he does not get involved in bilateral disputes so that he can intervene effectively behind the scenes when necessary. I am told that Mitsotakis thanked Erdoğan for the very positive atmosphere and the excellent organization of the summit. As for the various comments that circulated online about the military march played when the prime minister appeared at the dinner at the White Palace, Mitsotakis believes protocol was followed to the letter. More generally, despite the statements and tensions heard outside the summit, inside the summit—and certainly at the dinner—the atmosphere was very relaxed and highly allied.

Mitsotakis and the casus belli

However, many people in Turkey were irritated by Mitsotakis’s reminder that the casus belli has remained in force for 31 years and is even enshrined in law. It was Mitsotakis’s obvious response, and perhaps also an answer to critics who say he does not dare go to Turkey and say it there, while all the… brave people here kept saying it directly to Erdoğan, obviously linking it to developments in defense procurement. Mitsotakis, however, wanted to send the message that Greece cannot dictate to the Americans what they sell and to whom, but is primarily concerned with what we ourselves do regarding our own defense procurement. According to our own planning, by the end of 2029 we will have received our first fifth-generation fighter aircraft, for which new infrastructure is already being prepared at Greek air bases.

Gerapetritis’s briefing

As the Greek delegation returned yesterday from Ankara, and because there are naturally concerns and questions about what comes next following Trump’s flattering remarks about Erdogan, Foreign Minister Gerapetritis will today hold an initial briefing for diplomatic correspondents. I understand that there will also be an opportunity in the coming period to brief the political parties as well, as is standard practice after such critical summits.

Tasos scores political points

While the summit was taking place in Ankara, Deputy Foreign Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou, in Lagonisi, responded appropriately to former Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu, who chose to state on Greek soil that the occupation of Cyprus had been carried out in accordance with international law. Beyond the obvious substance of the response, it is also clear that Chatzivasileiou earned considerable political points, in addition to the applause he received from the audience.

New faces in New Democracy

Announcements of new candidates for New Democracy’s electoral lists are expected in the coming period. I understand that several deputy regional governors who will have resigned from their posts by the end of July in order to run in the upcoming national elections will certainly be among those announced. Also, one of my sources recently saw former international basketball player Lazaros Papadopoulos at the Maximos Mansion talking with government officials.

Nikos Pappas, what a character…

I was told that SYRIZA’s Nikos Pappas recently made the following remark, which I pass on to you. When asked what would happen with SYRIZA, he replied: “We’ll take it over ourselves. Let Famellos go to Tsipras. I’m 50 years old and I’ve been an MP for 15 years. Do I look like someone who’s going to go home?” Nikos has always been honest—brutally honest, both in the good and the bad sense. At some point it will be very interesting to make public our (turbulent) relationship during the period of his absolute dominance, when he did (and said) whatever he wanted. Now, I’m told that the leadership trio of the new SYRIZA—Pavlos Polakis, Nikos, and Rena Dourou—is not exactly united. But from what I understand, on the Left… “unity” has never really been their strong suit.

Tsipras

In the meantime, I asked what would happen with MPs and party officials who are leaving, such as Notopoulou or Zachariadis—whether they would go straight to “our Alexis”—and I was told, “We’ll see from October,” once the first autumn rains arrive, as I put it, unless elections are called before then. I also asked my source close to our long-lived leader how they planned to deal with attacks from Adonis and New Democracy along the lines of “Tsipras shouldn’t lecture us about corruption,” and I was told: “We won’t respond to such comments. We’ll focus on politics and on the positions of the new party.” I’ll believe that when I see it; I rather expect an à la carte strategy.

The march to the salt works, Gandhi, and…PASOK

PASOK has turned to symbolism, as the opinion polls have been painful. The party’s “theoretician” and head of outreach, Kostas Skandalidis, speaking in Thessaloniki, tried to reinforce the narrative of finishing first in the elections and even invoked Mahatma Gandhi’s “March to the Salt Works” to suggest that political change will come gradually. “Gandhi set out alone on a march of hundreds of kilometers to the Salt Works. Along the way more and more people joined him, until without a war he had already won the battle. That’s the only way,” he said. I’m dying laughing at Kostas’s comment!

What’s happening with active stock market accounts

Has the strong rally in the Greek stock market brought back old investors or attracted new ones? According to the official figures from the Athens Stock Exchange, there were 999,453 active investor accounts at the end of June. However, only 452,123 portfolios hold even a single listed company share on the exchange. Of the active accounts in June, only 31,939 carried out at least one transaction. That is just 3.2%. In the not-so-distant year of 2010, the number of active accounts each month was 56,418, while in 2007 it had reached 100,218. From that perspective, there is still tremendous potential for greater investor interest and participation. On the other hand, it should be taken into account that a large number of investors maintain accounts and trade Greek stocks through platforms such as Freedom24—which last year reported having 100,000 customers in Greece—as well as eToro, DEGIRO, and others that are not included in the official statistics. It should also be noted that over the past two months, inflows into the Athens Stock Exchange from foreign investors have exceeded €460 million.

A Digital Hub by Coca-Cola HBC in Egypt

Coca-Cola HBC’s decision to establish an international Digital Hub in Cairo to support 27 markets across Europe and Africa confirms that Egypt is now at the heart of the group’s growth strategy. This direction was also emphasized by Coca-Cola HBC executives during a presentation to institutional investors in Cairo as part of the Bitesize Investor series. Chief Operating Officer Nagia Kalogeraki described Egypt as a market with strong growth prospects, noting that following the acquisition of Coca-Cola Bottling Company of Egypt in 2022, the group continued expanding its operations despite geopolitical uncertainty in the region. Today, Coca-Cola HBC employs around 4,300 people in the country and operates five factories with 24 production lines. In Egypt, Coca-Cola HBC is launching an investment program worth $1.28 billion for the 2026–2030 period. The strengthening of the group’s presence in the region followed the full acquisition of Coca-Cola Bottling Company of Egypt in 2022 and was recently complemented by the acquisition of a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, significantly expanding Coca-Cola HBC’s footprint in the African market.

LAMDA: Of the 671 apartments, it sold 585

Immediately, within the summer and during the month of August, LAMDA Development intends to bring to market the next “wave” of approximately 120 apartments within The Ellinikon project, out of a total of 300–350 additional homes that will be released by the end of the current year. During yesterday’s briefing of analysts, the company’s financial team stated that sales rates will accelerate again as the project matures and construction work progresses, including infrastructure works. It is recalled that, beyond the residences on the coastal front, the plots for villas, the low-rise buildings, and the Residential Tower, according to management, demand remains strong for the apartments available for sale in the Little Athens neighborhood: By the end of May, 671 apartments had been placed on the market for sale. Of these, sales and reservations from prospective buyers amount to 585 apartments, meaning 87% of the total. The project remains self-financed, with the exception of the two shopping centers for which credit lines will be used: For the more advanced one in terms of construction, Riviera Galleria near the Agios Kosmas marina, which will be delivered in 2027, already approved credit lines have been used. As for the country’s largest mall on Vouliagmenis Avenue, “no credit lines have been used to date, and so far we are proceeding with our own funds. Now, during the second half of the year, we are expected to finalize the relevant agreements with the banks.” It is recalled that, based on the basic business financing terms for The Ellinikon Mall and the financing loan agreement for Riviera Galleria, over the medium term and gradually, the group will raise borrowed capital of up to €855 million (including VAT) for the two projects. Concrete pouring works at Riviera Galleria have been completed, while electromechanical installations and interior fit-out works are progressing. At The Ellinikon Mall, the contract for the construction of the structural frame has been awarded to the construction company TERNA S.A., while works began a few weeks ago, during the second quarter of 2026.

Honorary distinction by the University of Piraeus for Apostolos Tamvakakis

At a special ceremony held yesterday at the Municipal Theatre of Piraeus, the Rector of the University of Piraeus awarded an honorary doctorate from the Department of Business Administration of the School of Economics, Business and International Studies to Apostolos Tamvakakis, Founder and Managing Partner of EOS Capital Partners and former CEO of National Bank of Greece, with a long career in the financial sector. The ceremony, attended by many businesspeople, began with a speech by Rector Professor Michalis Sfakianakis. This was followed by a presentation of the honoree’s work (Laudatio) by Associate Chairman of the Department of Business Administration of the School of Economics, Business and International Studies, Professor Panagiotis Artikis. The honorary degree was then conferred through the reading of the relevant resolution and the presentation of the university gown. The ceremony concluded with a speech by Apostolos Tamvakakis, followed by a cocktail reception at the Yacht Club of Greece.

The auction hammers and the Foundation

For some time, this column had revealed two auctions scheduled for yesterday, Wednesday July 8, which were indirectly or directly connected with the Efraimoglou family. One of them, directed against the Foundation of the Hellenic World—the great vision and project of the late Lazaros Efraimoglou—concerned a prime plot of land in the Filothei area. The auction, therefore, began at 10 a.m., but a little later it was marked as “cancelled.” So I assume it was placed in the… dustbin of history. The second auction, for the same debt, was against a member of the family and concerned a plot “together with the buildings erected upon it, any existing and future structures, and with all of its components, attachments, appurtenances, additions and improvements,” with an area of 3,098 sq.m., suitable for development and construction, in the Kifisia area. It was offered with a starting bid of €2,030,000. There was strong interest, and a one-hour extension was granted to the process. Ultimately, the property was awarded for €2,510,999, that is, €480,999 above the starting bid.

UniCredit fights its battle in Frankfurt

UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel made history yesterday with two announcements that appear to be two sides of the same strategy. In Frankfurt, UniCredit announced that following the end of the public offer (July 3), it now holds 47.6% of Commerzbank (49.65% of voting rights). UniCredit values the German group at €42.5 billion and this represents the largest banking takeover attempt in Europe since the 2008 crisis. In Athens, on the same day, UniCredit and Alpha Bank announced the expansion of their cooperation in Bulgaria, with high-level meetings in Sofia. Therefore, in Germany, Orcel is fighting battles: Berlin (with a 12.3% stake in Commerzbank) rejects the offer as hostile and without a premium; the bank’s management appealed to BaFin over “misleading information”; employees believe rumors of 7,000 job cuts; and ECB approval is expected by September. Full integration is not expected before 2029. In Greece, by contrast, the same person is moving on friendly ground. Holding a 29.8% direct stake in Alpha, a total position of 32.1%, an investment exceeding €1.7 billion, and a joint platform that from Greece reaches—through the Bulgarian market, which adopted the euro at the start of the year—the group’s pan-European network.

Vassilis Katsos invests (again) in pharmaceuticals

Yesterday morning, through a LinkedIn post, VNK Capital Chairman Vassilis Katsos announced the creation of Concordia Healthcare Partners, a specialized investment company for the pharmaceutical sector and pharmaceutical services, with Periklis Vasilopoulos as co-founder. The choice of partner is significant, since Periklis Vasilopoulos was a 25% shareholder in Innovis Pharma, the joint vehicle of the Katsos–Vasilopoulos families, until the recent sale of 100% of the company to PharmaPath, which belongs to his cousin Petros Vasilopoulos. The duo, therefore, that has just liquidated its investment, is immediately returning with a new structure and a clear objective. The investment narrative is clear: “Beyond capital, our advantage is hands-on operational support, built on years of management and development of pharmaceutical businesses.” In simple terms, Concordia Healthcare Partners is not just another fund; it aspires to be an investor-operator. Vassilis Katsos took over Pharmathen at the age of 20. He sold 80% of it in 2015 to BC Partners for €475 million, and in 2021, together with private equity, he transferred 100% ownership to Partners Group at a valuation of €1.6 billion. At the time, it was one of the most prominent Greek deals of the decade. VNK had previously exited its position in Lamda Development after eight years of presence and support, while it also sold its Mykonos clinics to Hellenic Healthcare Group. In other words, liquidity is available; now a vehicle with a thematic focus has been created.

Strategic defaulters are returning

In recent years, significant progress had been made in distinguishing between non-performing loan debtors who are genuinely unable to repay and strategic defaulters. Legislative interventions and the establishment of objective criteria for determining this distinction had moved in the right direction, with substantial results (the out-of-court mechanism, certification as a vulnerable debtor). Starting with the decision of the Supreme Court (Areios Pagos) regarding loans under the Katseli law, strategic defaulters considered that they once again had an opportunity to rid themselves of their debts while retaining assets that exceed—often by a wide margin—their loan obligations. These individuals, frequently in cooperation with their lawyers, approach and mislead media outlets, providing a partial or distorted picture of their actual situation, generating publicity in the hope that they will thereby achieve favorable arrangements or debt relief. A characteristic and extreme (but not isolated) case is the matter that recently became a newspaper front-page story as an alleged “persecution” of a borrower even after death. The objective facts of the case are as follows: The total debt amounts to €585,000 and comes from six different loans, business and mortgage loans, in which the debtor was either the primary borrower or guarantor and heir to borrowers who have died. The properties provided as collateral for the loans more than cover their value and include a villa (a two-story maisonette with a basement, totaling more than 200 sq.m., and a plot of more than one acre, which forms part of a larger three-acres plot) on a tourist island in the Cyclades, a short distance from its most fashionable beach. This villa is rented out through Airbnb, for €250–350 per day outside the peak tourist season. Even today, it remains listed on the Airbnb platform. They also include a residence of more than 120 sq.m. on the same island/in Chora of Naxos, and a 90 sq.m. apartment in Petroupoli. The same debtors also have outstanding obligations to the state, with debts exceeding €50,000, as well as other loan obligations exceeding €200,000. The heirs of the original debtor refuse to provide updated financial information—because, obviously, they do not want it to become known and for the loan to be restructured on that basis. They do not even submit the documents proving their legal status as heirs. The primary debtor has rejected proposals for full discharge of her debt through a lump-sum payment and reduction of the total amount owed, as well as proposals for restructuring with a down payment. In practice, what the debtor is seeking is to inherit the entire estate without repaying the loans through which it was acquired. This specific loan has been included in a securitization for which state guarantees were provided under the “Hercules” scheme, meaning that we may all end up paying for it together if the guarantees are called upon.

The game is becoming clearer at “Eleftherios Venizelos”

The pressure on the management of Athens International Airport is discreet but intense. It is now time for the decisive phase of the tender for the airport’s major expansion to begin—immediately—the €1.1–1.3 billion mega-project that will increase the airport’s capacity to more than 40 million passengers by 2032. Information indicates that the consortium selected as contractor is being reshaped with the participation of AKTOR as well. The Turkish company IC Ictas, the construction arm of the IC Holding group (the 3rd Bosphorus Bridge, Antalya Airport), which initially participated in a joint bidding consortium with Alexandros Exarchou’s group, will definitely not participate. After the TERNA–REDEX participation was “frozen” in March, the race essentially came down to AVAX–METKA and AKTOR. AVAX has experience in constructing and expanding an operational airport at Queen Alia Airport in Amman. Time is pressing, and so is tourism traffic. The cost, initially €1.3 billion, is already burdened by an additional 10%–15% due to the consequences of the Gulf war. Athens International Airport is already operating at its limits, having reached 15th place among Europe’s busiest airports. The financing structure has been completed, as Athens International Airport has secured €806 million in bank financing, while estimated net profits for 2026 are approaching €200 million.

The $3.8 billion, the G7 price cap, and the next day for Greek shipowners

The Financial Times report is not simply about the billions collected by Greek shipping companies from transporting Russian oil. In reality, it highlights a major contradiction in Western policy toward Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine, the G7 countries and the European Union did not completely ban the transport of Russian oil. Instead, they created a mechanism allowing exports to continue, provided that the oil was sold below a predetermined maximum price (price cap). The goal was twofold: to limit Moscow’s revenues while avoiding an energy crisis and a global surge in oil prices. Many Greek shipping companies operated within this completely legal framework. These transports offered 30%–40% higher freight rates because they carried increased geopolitical and insurance risks. This explains why Greek tankers continued to maintain a strong presence on these routes. The interesting part, however, lies elsewhere. Brussels and Washington are examining stricter enforcement of sanctions, while voices are increasing among those who believe that the price-cap system left significant room for interpretation. If the framework changes, the balance in the tanker market may also change, with companies that remained active in this sector coming under much greater scrutiny than before. It is no coincidence that several major Greek shipping groups began withdrawing gradually from this market from late 2023, and even more so after the new U.S. sanctions of 2025. Not because freight rates stopped being attractive, but because the risk of facing new sanctions or restrictions on financing, insurance, and relations with Western banks increased significantly. In other words, the real message is not the estimated $3.8 billion collected by Greek companies. It is that the window the West had left open until now for the legal transportation of Russian oil appears to be gradually closing. And if that happens, the tanker market will change again, with Greek shipowners called upon to adapt their strategies to an even stricter geopolitical environment.

Danaos’s move that made Wall Street look twice

In Wall Street circles, there is a detail that rarely goes unnoticed. When a company has a massive investment program ahead of it, it usually keeps a tighter grip on dividends. Danaos chose the opposite path. It continues rewarding its shareholders while simultaneously running one of the largest fleet renewal and expansion programs. The message is not found in the $0.90 distribution. It lies in the fact that management did not feel the need to keep that money in the company’s treasury.And in the markets, such decisions are rarely accidental.

The valuation clash between PPC and National Bank

Yesterday’s session also had a moment of absolute symmetry. The market capitalizations of PPC (Public Power Corporation) and National Bank of Greece were exactly equal. At the close of the session, however, the balance showed the new reality. PPC’s market value reached €14.278 billion (€23.90, -0.83%), while National Bank’s fell to €13.922 billion (€15.22, -2.93%). The gap opened to €356 million, and the third step of the Euronext Athens podium now belongs to a stock that seven years ago, in July 2019, was the 33rd largest company by market capitalization on the Athens Exchange and was worth no more than €350 million. This is the first time in the modern history of our market that an energy group has claimed a position that for years was considered “permanent” for systemic banking. The development was gradual. From 9th place before its share capital increase, PPC added €4.5 billion in valuation in less than two months. The fuel was the genuine demand that was not satisfied during the capital increase: BlackRock (€14 trillion under management) received 42% of what it requested, Capital Group only 28%, QIA–Al Rayyan 42%, Covalis 57%. The “houses” left thirsty became buyers on the trading board, and the supply-demand relationship did the rest. Then came the institutional endorsements: JP Morgan at €25, S&P at “BB” (18/6), Morgan Stanley with an overweight rating and a €27 target, Goldman Sachs with a Buy recommendation at €26.50. In this game, National Bank did not “lose.” Despite today’s correction, it remains close to its historic highs, with a double-digit rise this year and a share buyback program underway. It is simply that PPC, with an increase of more than 30% since the beginning of the year, is moving faster. In a market with a total value of €184.2 billion, where developed-market funds invest based on ranking positions, third place translates into orders, inflows, and index weighting. The Greek stock market is gaining a second pillar of importance alongside banks: Energy.

Argentina gained a place high in the IMF hierarchy as well

The new chief economist of the International Monetary Fund comes from the country that is its largest debtor. Kristalina Georgieva formally announced the appointment of Silvana Tenreyro as Economic Counsellor and head of the Research Department, succeeding Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who returned to academic life. The first Latin American woman to hold this key IMF position will take office on August 10. Her résumé is substantial: a degree from the University of Tucumán in Argentina, a doctorate from Harvard, professor at the London School of Economics since 2004, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee during the critical period of 2017–2023 (the pandemic and inflation shock), with previous experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the central bank of Mauritius. She holds triple citizenship (Argentina, Italy, Britain), is a former president of the European Economic Association, and is already a member of Georgieva’s external advisory group. Among economists, she is known for something else as well. In London, she was considered the most “dove” (accommodating, moderate) voice on the MPC, repeatedly voting against aggressive interest-rate increases in 2022. The IMF’s new chief economist will sign the World Economic Outlook at a time when the United States is reinstating sanctions on Iranian oil and escalating strikes in the Middle East, tariff tensions remain an open front, and global growth is slowing. Georgieva spoke of “deep transformation and increased uncertainty.” It is a diplomatic phrase for an environment in which the Fund is called upon to tell truths that also irritate its largest shareholders.

Trump’s app is breaking records

According to the television network FOX, an app from the U.S. Treasury Department is in first place on Apple’s App Store, above every social media app and every game. It is the “Trump Accounts app,” the digital showcase of the program officially launched on the July 4th national holiday, which turns popular savings into a political slogan. The state is becoming a financial platform. The program announced by President Trump on the day of the national anniversary provides that every child born in the United States between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2028 will receive a $1,000 initial contribution from the U.S. government, placed in an account that will invest in the S&P 500 index. All minors who have a Social Security Number can open an account, with annual contributions of up to $5,000. At the age of 18, the account is converted into a traditional IRA (Individual Retirement Account—the basic U.S. tax-advantaged private retirement savings account). According to Time, 1.4 million children already meet the criteria for the “endowment.” Obviously, behind every initiative of President Trump there is a background story. The trustee and entity responsible for the program’s stock-market infrastructure is Robinhood, operating on behalf of the Treasury Department, with the participation of BNY Mellon. In other words, the U.S. government has “locked in” millions of future customers on a private platform—the largest customer acquisition deal in the history of American fintech. In addition, billionaire Michael Dell and his wife committed $6.25 billion in order to provide $250 each to children not covered by the program. Immediately afterward, a number of companies announced that they would supplement the government’s $1,000 contribution with their own money. Any withdrawals from this account will be taxed as income. Of course, no one knows what the trajectory of stock markets may be in the coming years. The name of the program is “Trump Accounts,” and not, naturally, “American Savings” or something similar. The “popular base” of capitalism has acquired an app.

The “drama” of the Japanese borrower

This month, millions of Japanese borrowers are opening their mortgage notices and seeing something that two generations have never seen before: an increase in their monthly payments. With 70–80% of the country’s mortgages carrying variable interest rates and being adjusted every six months, the Bank of Japan’s December increase was reflected in July’s payment notices, while another increase is coming, after the benchmark rate rose to 1% at the end of June. Board member Naoki Tamura is openly speaking of a path toward a “neutral” rate of 2%. The shock, for now, is more psychological than financial. In Japan, variable interest rates remain at 0.3%–0.8%, and the infamous Japanese “5-year rule” applies, with a cap on payment increases of +125%, spreading the burden over time. However, unpaid interest is not forgiven; it accumulates and is added at the end of the loan. The real drama is unfolding in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year government bond climbed to 2.87%, a 30-year high, at levels last seen in 1996, while the 30-year bond yield once again exceeded 4%, close to the record 4.2% reached in May. The catalyst was Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plan to mobilize ¥370 trillion ($2.3 trillion) in investments through 2040. A program that the market interprets as a recipe for more debt in a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio close to 230%, the highest on the planet. The most worrying signal comes from the 10-year versus 2-year yield spread, which has surged to 1.4 percentage points. It was below 1% in April. In the United States and Germany, the corresponding premium remains stagnant or is declining. This means that the market is pricing in specifically Japanese fiscal risk. Analysts place the “turning point” at 3% for the 10-year yield, where the cost of servicing debt begins to grow faster than revenues. Japan built the world’s largest debt burden on the logic of “free money.” But money has now regained both value and a price. The bill is arriving by mail to every borrower.