During the reception marking the restoration of democracy, the President of the Republic reportedly revealed, in the presence of the political party leaders, that the prime minister intends to hold elections in May 2027. Mitsotakis himself was also clear in his recent interview with Open TV: there will be no elections this autumn.

Indeed, New Democracy MPs and ministers who had been betting on an autumn election date had already taken the prime minister at his word after listening to his address to the party’s parliamentary group. As a result, they have now shifted their bets to Sundays in April, May, June, or even July 2027, attempting to interpret the prime minister’s intentions.

According to reports, Mitsotakis has already decided to remain in office until the end of New Democracy’s constitutional term and complete the government’s second four-year mandate, even though autumn and winter are expected to be politically difficult for several reasons.

Following developments in the Gulf, the prime minister approved an additional €0.10-per-litre subsidy on diesel fuel for August, at a cost of €30 million to the state budget.

He has reportedly communicated this decision to his close circle at the Maximos Mansion and to the Cabinet—which is scheduled to meet again on July 30—while many senior government officials had already been expecting the government to complete its full term.

Consolidation and endurance

Mitsotakis’ decision is neither accidental nor instinctive. It goes beyond his emphasis on institutional stability and his long-held belief that governments should complete their four-year mandates and be judged on their full record.

Instead, it is based on extensive analysis of quantitative and qualitative polling regularly received at the Prime Minister’s Office, as well as a broader strategic assessment of the political landscape.

In short, two key concepts define the prime minister’s strategy: consolidation and attrition.

Regarding the first, Proto Thema has repeatedly noted that Mitsotakis is realistic enough not to seek support from the entire electorate. Instead, he is primarily trying to reconnect with the 41% of voters who delivered New Democracy its decisive victories in 2019 and 2023.

His goal is to reunite the party with former New Democracy voters who either remain undecided or are considering other parties. More conservative voters may be leaning toward Greek Solution or Voice of Reason, while more centrist voters may be considering PASOK.

As for the anticipated political party associated with former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, government officials view it as a political project still under development and believe its eventual electoral strength will likely fall short of Samaras’ expectations.

Officials at the Maximos Mansion identify three categories of former New Democracy voters who currently do not intend to support the party:

• Those who are ultimately expected to return to New Democracy, even if reluctantly, viewing it as the least undesirable option.
• Swing voters who have become more distant and skeptical but are not considered permanently lost.
• Voters who appear to have definitively broken with the party for various reasons. Some drifted away after the European elections and could potentially become a support base for a future Samaras-led party.

According to government assessments, the cost of living and disposable income remain voters’ primary concerns, followed by corruption cases that have damaged the government’s public image.

Wearing down political rivals

Another reason Mitsotakis intends to complete his term is the prospect of gradually exhausting his political opponents.

At every opportunity, he emphasizes that New Democracy is a party with the endurance of a marathon runner, capable of maintaining a fast pace until the finish line.

Already, speculation about early elections prompted public moves by both Alexis Tsipras and Maria Karystianou.

As a result, Mitsotakis has acquired a clearer political opponent against whom he can contrast himself, while officials at the Maximos Mansion believe that Karystianou, leader of Hope for Democracy, has rapidly lost much of her political momentum and electoral appeal.

Regarding a potential Samaras party, Mitsotakis has made clear that there is no room for reconciliation, insisting that New Democracy will stay the course while strengthening internal party unity to prevent defections.

Full speed ahead

With this strategy in place, Mitsotakis intends to continue governing at full speed over the coming months.

On Tuesday, he is scheduled to visit Leros and Agathonisi. Although activity will naturally slow during August, government operations are expected to accelerate sharply after August 25.

On August 27, the prime minister will travel to Thessaloniki for the annual meeting with business and productive sector representatives ahead of the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF). A major event presenting and summarizing the government’s work will also take place at the Thessaloniki Concert Hall.

During the same period, the Kalamaria extension of the Thessaloniki Metro is expected to be officially inaugurated, while New Democracy party officials will campaign across every prefecture of Macedonia ahead of the fair.

This year’s TIF will effectively serve as the government’s pre-election platform, with Mitsotakis expected to outline a governing vision extending through another four-year term.

New Democracy’s policy team, led by Kostis Hatzidakis, is already working on the so-called “Agenda 2030”, coordinating closely with the Ministry of Finance so that, alongside next year’s economic measures, the prime minister can also commit to major long-term targets for a potential third term—similar to the commitments he made before the 2023 elections regarding minimum and average wages.

Meanwhile, the government continues inaugurating major infrastructure projects ahead of the August 31 completion of the Recovery Fund. Last Tuesday, it also presented the Recovery Fund’s successor, the National Development Programme, worth €23 billion and running through 2030.

Grey areas ahead

Despite its long-term planning, the government faces a challenging political environment.

Beyond the uncertainty created by the ongoing war, it must also contend with corruption allegations and judicial proceedings.

In October, the Judicial Council will decide whether former minister Christos Triantopoulos should stand trial over allegations related to the handling of the Tempi rail disaster site.

At the beginning of October, trials are also scheduled to begin for four New Democracy MPs facing prosecution over the OPEKEPE case.

Finally, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) is investigating the so-called “Recycling Houses” programme over possible cost overruns and procurement irregularities.