This year’s Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) “package” is larger than last year’s, with the fiscal cost for 2027 estimated at €1.8-1.9 billion, compared with €1.7 billion last year. The additional fiscal space is being created mainly through the economy’s stronger-than-expected performance, generating around €1.4 billion, and through the activation of the “escape clause” for energy, which allows for additional spending of approximately €400 million.

A large part of the measures will involve tax relief. However, the 90th Thessaloniki International Fair will not simply be the annual “celebration” of government announcements. It will mark the starting point of a four-year plan that the government wants the market to view as a “new tax roadmap.”

Tax presumptions… set for change

The government’s message is that the fight against tax evasion has produced results — the VAT gap has fallen below the European average — and that it is now time for taxpayers who comply with their obligations to see tangible benefits. The measures are presented as a continuation of policies announced at previous TIFs, fulfilled and “here to stay,” reinforcing the narrative of “matching words with actions.”

For professionals and self-employed workers in particular, the government is also considering reducing the advance tax payment from the 55% rate that has applied since 2019 to 50% or potentially even lower.

The biggest intervention, however, concerns changes and adjustments to tax presumptions, which will be implemented immediately in 2027. The system of presumptive taxation will not be abolished, as it is considered necessary to prevent certain sectors from declaring extremely low incomes while still benefiting from tax advantages or welfare benefits.

However, from 2027, important parameters used to calculate the final tax bill will change. Specifically, the government is considering reducing the presumptive tax burden for sectors or individual businesses that fully comply with all their tax obligations — including myDATA, POS, digital delivery documents, compliance with payment arrangements, etc. — provided that the tax authorities can establish that they have complete oversight of their revenues and expenses.

Criteria that can currently lead to excessive tax burdens may also be limited, such as a business reporting a higher turnover than the average for its sector or paying high salaries — factors that currently “punish” rather than reward tax compliance.

For other businesses and legal entities, five measures are considered the most likely:

First, the permanent abolition of the business levy for legal entities, which currently ranges from €400 to €1,000 annually per business and up to €600 for each branch.

Second, a substantial reduction in the advance tax payment, which is currently calculated at a rate of 80% and could potentially be reduced to 55%-60%, with a further reduction possible over the four-year period.

Third, allowing tax losses to be carried forward for ten years, instead of the five-year period currently in force — a longstanding request from the business community, particularly given the high cost of investment in machinery and equipment.

Fourth, preferential low-cost loans for SMEs from the Hellenic Development Bank, potentially totaling up to €5 billion, following or even beyond the end of the Recovery Fund.

Fifth, a further reduction in social security contributions, with a 0.5-percentage-point reduction already “locked in” and efforts underway to create room for an additional 1-percentage-point reduction.

In addition, a gradual reduction in the corporate tax rate is also being considered, potentially bringing it down from the current 22% to 20%.