One day before his successor was sworn in as part of Ukraine’s government, former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who has been particularly popular among Ukrainian citizens in recent months, dropped a bombshell: he argued that his country is facing a governance problem and called for elections to be held, stressing that democratic processes cannot be held hostage by Russia.

“We must find a legitimate, safe and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to restore its full democratic process, even under the conditions of a prolonged war,” Fedorov said in a recorded video message, adding even more fuel to the fire for Zelensky, who in recent hours has been facing a new corruption scandal.

Beyond and above this, however, is the fact that 35-year-old Fedorov is the first person with a public voice in Ukraine to challenge the current president and is already being presented by many as one of the main contenders to seek the country’s highest office when the next elections are held.

Fedorov’s rise

It is characteristic that the popularity of the reform-oriented Fedorov, who has a strong inclination toward technological innovation, increased after his surprise removal by Zelensky last month, just six months after he took over as defense minister. The decision triggered a rare, given the wartime circumstances, wave of street protests.

The Ukrainian outlet NV cited a SOCIS poll according to which Zelensky currently has around 22%, former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and current Ukrainian ambassador to Britain Valerii Zaluzhnyi has 21%, and Fedorov 13%. The most worrying element for the current president, however, lies in the second round. Polls have shown that if either Zaluzhnyi or Fedorov were to face him in a runoff, they could defeat him.

Among the potential strong candidates who could stand against Zelensky and challenge him is also Kyrylo Budanov, former head of the military intelligence service and current chief of staff of the Ukrainian presidency.

How feasible is it to hold elections amid the war?

How likely and feasible is it, however, for Ukrainians to actually go to the polls safely at a time when Russian forces continue their daily bombardments, even against clearly political targets?

Ukraine held its last elections in 2019 and has been under martial law since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Martial law prohibits the holding of elections for security reasons.

At the same time, fighting continues along a front more than 1,200 kilometers long in the east, south and north of the country. Hundreds of Russian drones and missiles regularly strike Ukrainian cities, even far from the front lines, while attacks on the energy grid cause power outages.

Polls have repeatedly shown that the majority of Ukrainians oppose holding elections for as long as the war continues.

At least six months of preparation are needed

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told Reuters that a necessary precondition even for beginning a discussion about elections would be at least a ceasefire in the air.

Even then, however, Kyiv would essentially have to create from scratch the legislative framework for holding elections under the new circumstances. A new law would be needed to establish the timetable, rules and procedures, with Fesenko estimating that this preparation alone would take about six months.

At the same time, according to analysts, Ukrainian authorities would have to establish safeguards against possible attempts by Russia to interfere with or manipulate the process.

Moscow maintains that Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer a legitimate president because his term ended in May 2024, and claims that for this reason he cannot sign peace agreements on behalf of Ukraine.

Donald Trump has also criticized the absence of elections, saying in an interview with Politico last December that the time had come to hold a vote.

Ukrainian voters are scattered

A particular practical problem in holding elections concerns the millions of Ukrainians who have left their homes because of the war.

Updating the state electoral register to record who is entitled to vote and — above all — where they can vote is itself a complex process involving an enormous amount of work.

At the end of June, more than 4.4 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in the European Union. This means that Kyiv would have to organize hundreds of polling stations across Europe so that they could exercise their right to vote.

At the same time, nearly 4 million people remain internally displaced within Ukraine, according to figures from the UN migration agency.

Registering all these citizens would not be a simple process and, according to analysts, would require significant resources and personnel at a time when the country continues to prioritize its defense.

How will one million military personnel vote?

An even greater issue concerns Ukraine’s armed forces. Approximately one million people serve in the country’s defense forces, and organizing a free and secret ballot for soldiers stationed on fronts where drone attacks are a daily occurrence would be extremely dangerous and would most likely require special legislative provisions.

Another critical issue concerns Ukrainians who remain in the occupied territories. According to estimates by Ukrainian officials for 2024, approximately 4.5 million adult Ukrainians were in these territories, in Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Russia controls approximately 19% of Ukrainian territory and plans to hold its own elections in these areas next month, a process Kyiv describes as illegal.

What are Zelensky’s chances of being re-elected?

Despite the erosion of his support after years of war and the various scandals that have “blown up” from time to time, Zelensky still has strong chances of being re-elected, according to the polls.

His popularity had reached around 90% during the first months after the Russian invasion, but has since fallen to around 60%, depending on the poll.

Political analysts and pollsters estimate that his approval ratings were hit by the major corruption scandal in the energy sector in 2025. They subsequently recovered, however, and Zelensky still leads most of his traditional political opponents.