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The Pentagon remains on constant alert following new threats from Tehran to strike military targets in Europe, including Cyprus and Bulgaria.

Athens is developing scenarios to strengthen security, including consideration of moving the Patriot battery from Karpathos to Crete in order to further reinforce the air-defense coverage of Souda.

Greek fighter aircraft and the frigate “Nikiforos Fokas” remain deployed in Cyprus, while Greece remains open to a possible Bulgarian request for air-defense assistance.

The Ministry of National Defence is also assessing the return to Greece of the Greek Patriot battery currently deployed in Saudi Arabia, with current planning apparently leaning toward bringing the system back to Greece in the coming period.

Protective measures

The Pentagon’s precautionary planning includes the possible transfer of the Patriot battery from Karpathos to Crete. The battery had been moved to Karpathos when the US-Iran conflict began and could be relocated to Crete to further strengthen the air-defense protection of Souda.

At the same time, four Greek Air Force fighter aircraft remain in Cyprus, together with the Hellenic Navy’s S-class frigate “Nikiforos Fokas,” which has periodically maintained an increased presence in the southeastern Mediterranean.

Beyond the Greek forces already deployed on Cyprus, Athens appears open to providing air-defense assistance to Bulgaria if the neighboring country submits a relevant request at a future meeting of the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA).

Greece’s added value

According to military analysts, the fact that Bulgaria turned to Athens during the previous phase of the conflict in the Middle East for air-defense coverage represents a strong “vote of confidence” in Greece’s regional defense capabilities, particularly in the historically volatile Balkans.

That capability has also gained international recognition through the repeated successes of the Hellenic Saudi Arabia Force (ELDYSA), which has been tasked with providing ballistic-missile protection for Aramco oil facilities in the Yanbu area of Saudi Arabia.

The force’s repeated success in intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles as well as unmanned aerial vehicles operated by the Houthis has significantly altered the operational image of Greece in the wider region, at a time when existing multilateral partnerships are being updated and new ones are emerging.

In this context, the “Mecca Agreement”—the trilateral mutual-defense pact signed earlier this month between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia—has reignited domestic debate over the role of the Greek Patriot battery at Aramco facilities.

However, according to the report, this discussion had already begun months earlier at senior military-planning levels within the Pentagon. Athens had reportedly decided much earlier—and certainly before the emergence of the trilateral defense arrangement involving Turkey—to conduct a monthly assessment of Greece’s military presence in Saudi Arabia, indirectly putting pressure on the Saudi side regarding the security guarantees it receives.

According to information from the Ministry of National Defence, there are two scenarios under consideration. The first involves a short extension of the deployment of the Hellenic Air Force’s Patriot guided-missile battery in Saudi Arabia.

The second scenario is repatriation, meaning the transfer of the weapons system back to Greece. In any case, the current direction of the ministry’s planning appears to favor returning the system to Greece in the coming period, although the presence of the Patriot systems in the wider region continues to be evaluated.

The deployment of the Greek battery in the region began in 2021, as part of the international Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Concept initiative supporting the air defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The primary mission of ELDYSA has been to provide air-defense protection for ARAMCO facilities, while its operational capability has been tested in the field, successfully intercepting both ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

At the same time, the Pentagon has sent multiple signals over the past several months through the speed with which it deployed forces to Cyprus when the first Iranian attacks on Akrotiri began.

The effectiveness of multilateral defense arrangements in the southeastern Mediterranean, however, has not historically guaranteed their long-term viability, as has happened in a number of cases involving Muslim states participating in similar processes.

Against this backdrop, the timing and degree of substantive interaction among the participants in the “Mecca Agreement” will determine any further Greek diplomatic or other moves. Some observers see the trilateral arrangement as an indirect attempt to penetrate regional alliances following the deepening cooperation between Greece, Cyprus and Israel, particularly against the backdrop of Meridiam’s involvement in the electricity interconnection linking the three countries.

The PATRIOT system

The PATRIOT air-defense system is American-made and entered service with the Hellenic Air Force in 2003. It is a mobile, long-range air-defense system (HSAM), with a surveillance radar range of 170 kilometers and a maximum engagement range of 150 kilometers.

It consists of:

• the Information and Coordination Center (ICC);
• the Radar Set;
• the Engagement Control Station (ECS); and
• the Launching Stations.

A fire unit can control up to 16 launch stations, which can be positioned and operate at distances of up to 30 kilometers from the engagement station, allowing maximum area coverage.

The system can simultaneously engage nine targets, including tactical and ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft.

Each Information and Coordination Center can control and coordinate up to six ECS units and is connected to the National Air Control System. The Hellenic Air Force operates two Information and Coordination Centers and six Engagement Control Stations, each with six launch stations.

Calm and readiness

Amid the growing number of threats and developments on the geopolitical chessboard of the southeastern Mediterranean, enhanced security measures for vessels from Mediterranean countries sailing in the Red Sea and other key locations across the wider region are now almost certain.

NATO has also declared its presence amid the rapidly developing situation. A senior NATO official told The Jerusalem Post that, “as demonstrated earlier this year, when NATO air defenses successfully intercepted ballistic missiles heading toward Turkey from Iran on four separate occasions, our deterrence and defense posture is strong and effective.”

Cyprus, meanwhile, maintains that it “threatens no one” and is not a factor contributing to military escalation in the region.

Instead, according to a Cypriot government source quoted by Phileleftheros, the country serves as a “pillar of stability, security and cooperation” and as a bridge between the EU and the wider Middle East. The source also confirmed that enhanced precautionary measures have been implemented in recent months.

Cyprus has been included on Tehran’s “blacklist” as a potential target because of the presence of a British air base on the island. In Bulgaria’s case, part of the neighboring country is considered a potential target because Sofia has made the Bezmer air base available to US aircraft for refueling.

Concerns have increased further in light of an attack carried out by Tehran in recent months, when Iran launched two medium-range ballistic missiles toward the Diego Garcia base, demonstrating its ability to project force far beyond its geographical borders and into an area with a strong US presence.

Since then, the strain on European countries’ air-defense systems, also as a result of the “frozen” conflict in Ukraine, has worsened. The article argues, however, that Iran’s operational situation has not deteriorated to the same extent.

According to information cited in the report, Tehran is even openly threatening millions of European citizens on the continent, apparently seeking to have them transmit the wave and atmosphere of fear and insecurity they experience across the Atlantic, particularly ahead of the US midterm elections.