The summer has passed, the polls have returned, and the political landscape is almost exactly where it had been left. New Democracy is moving in the 26%-27% range, ELAS remains in second place, and PASOK is around 10%. Something, however, has changed: undecided voters have increased. And at the start of the new political season, attention is shifting from who is ahead to who can find the next percentage points.

ND “at its usual level”

Before the summer break, polls found New Democracy in roughly the same range: Pulse at 26%, GPO at 25.7%, and Marc at 27.3% in voting intention. After the holidays, Interview records it at 26.5%, with ELAS at 14.5% and PASOK at 10%.

The methodologies differ, and the figures cannot all be weighed on the same scale. The political picture, however, is clear: ND is, as the common expression goes, “at its usual level,” with a 12-point lead over the party in second place.

The government team believes that its actual electoral strength “starts with a 3.” The latest estimates before August were indeed there: 30% for Pulse, 29.3% for GPO, and 30.8% for Marc.

From the “3” to a single-party majority

Thirty percent, of course, does not constitute a single-party majority, which remains its stated goal. It is interesting that in the Pulse poll, more than 4 out of 5 (45%) preferred a single-party government over 38% who opted for a coalition. By contrast, in the Marc survey, only 18.8% estimated that ND would win a single-party majority.

There is also a contradiction which, according to experienced parliamentary figures, perhaps says more than the party percentages. In the Interview poll, 65% believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction and 51% are calling for elections now. Nevertheless, ELAS falls to 14.5% from 15.8% in July, while PASOK remains at 10%.

The dissatisfaction exists. What does not yet exist is someone who is massively capitalizing on it, is the conclusion these same people emphasize when speaking to protothema.gr.

The 10.6% that everyone is watching

And this is where the 10.6% of undecided voters comes in, up from 9% in July. For ND, this has additional significance, since in the latest Marc survey before the holidays, 33.2% of undecided voters came from voters who had supported it in the 2023 elections.

This is where the Maximos Mansion sees part of the available space to reach the “3 in front.” The opposition, however, is also competing for the same pool if it wants to turn social dissatisfaction into a change in the balance of political forces.

And so everyone enters the battle for the Thessaloniki International Fair, with ND pursuing the points that will raise its percentage, ELAS seeking to build momentum for second place, and PASOK trying to break away from 10%.

The summer left the parties roughly where it found them, but it appears that the change it brought is that more voters are without a final choice. And they are now the major prize in the battle that is beginning.