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K.M. in New York (Who He Will Meet, What He Will Do), Alexis’ Thinking on Windfall Taxes (What Did You Just Say?), Tzitzikostas’ Bougatsa Summit

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Newsroom September 23 02:09

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Greetings, Mitsotakis has wrapped up his meetings in San Francisco and is now in New York, where his program begins today. At a quick glance, I would say that it is not so much the political meetings — although today he may have a brief meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney — as his meetings with major firms and banks. Today, for example, he is scheduled to meet with major U.S. banks, following his appearance at an event with members of the Greek diaspora. We are talking about Bank of America and Citigroup.

Afternoon Coffee with the WSJ

—I’m staying with Mitsotakis’ schedule, and particularly with the things that have not been announced, as I understand that today (U.S. time) he will also go for an afternoon coffee with the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, between 47th and 48th Avenues in New York. It is obvious that foreign media are interested in the case of Greece, which is “scoring” well in the bond markets and attracting billionaires and fund owners as tax residents, such as Chris Rokos. In general, K.M. has a narrative that foreigners are now readily buying into. Indicative of this is the fact that on Friday Mitsotakis will give an interview on Bloomberg’s morning show, shortly before the markets open.

Stranded at the Ambassador’s Residence

—Among the things left out of the Greek delegation’s U.S. trip is the ordeal politicians and journalists went through on their way to New York on Monday night, as they were unable to land on the United flight at Newark and the flight was diverted to Washington. Among the passengers were Environment Minister Stavros Papastavrou and Mitsotakis’ close associate Aristotelia Peloni, who has arranged several of the prime minister’s meetings in the United States. The result of the minor ordeal was that our ambassador to the U.S., Antonis Alexandridis, opened the ambassadorial residence to host the Greeks who had been stranded there and who eventually departed yesterday on another flight for the Big Apple.

Alexis and Refinery Windfall Taxes

—Well, yesterday’s announcements by our long-suffering Alexis about taxing the windfall profits of the refineries are very interesting. And that is because until now he had systematically avoided saying anything about the issue, since, as is well known, the president has never wanted to upset the big names of Greek industry, particularly the energy sector. I learned from a heavyweight source (as we say, an unquestionable one) that yesterday Alexis was asked, “Why… did you throw us under the bus?” or something along those lines. And here is what I learned that the dear man replied: I proposed four ways to the government to raise money from the energy market or reduce taxes and ease the burden on consumers’ wallets. I didn’t only talk about the windfall profits of the refineries, they can do the other three, he reportedly said, and in that way he seemed to be saying… let this cup pass from me. Very good, eh?

Tzitzikostas’ “Summit”

—While the Summit of European leaders in mid-October is still pending, yesterday Greece’s European Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas made the spectacular announcement that, if the situation worsens, he will request an extraordinary meeting of the EU Council of Ministers to take measures. Apart from the catchy headline, however, he did not clarify which ministers he would ask to convene. Energy ministers? Finance ministers, headed by Pierrakakis? Unless the European Transport Ministers (the body he can convene) are going to solve the energy crisis…

Insistence on Western Macedonia

—The Thessaloniki International Fair may be over and the tours by the “blue” government officials may have ended, but the government is showing particular attention to Western Macedonia, which is struggling because of decarbonization and the so-called “just transition.” It is no coincidence that Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis is heading there again today, visiting Florina, Ptolemaida and Kozani, with discussions on infrastructure projects, investments and the progress of the transition. The visit begins at the Florina Swimming Pool, followed by a meeting on the Xino Nero–Ptolemaida road, while in the afternoon he will hold a meeting at the Region of Western Macedonia and with PPC officials. The program will conclude with the opening of the Western Macedonia Trade, Industrial and Agricultural Exhibition, where he may well hear complaints again about agricultural issues and the AADE platform, for which a few days’ extension has been granted, as there was an issue with the aerial photographs corresponding to the declared plots of agricultural land.

The Good and Bad News for Industry

—Quite a few developments are coming out of the industrial sector these days. Starting with the positive ones, I learned on Tuesday that the first meeting of the legislative drafting committee for business parks was held at the Ministry of Development. The committee includes representatives of the Ministry of Environment and Energy, the Ministry of Development and ministry officials, whose main task is to improve the 2022 law, which delivered the maximum possible results, and create a new one. The committee’s job is to organize the spaces that will accommodate production and transform informal industrial concentrations into organized zones with shared infrastructure. Through the new legislative intervention, the goal is to create a business park in every prefecture of the country over the next ten years. The Ministry of Development is investing heavily in supporting industry, something that is already producing results, as 60,000 new jobs have been created in the sector in recent years, while the development of industry will also be a central issue on the agenda of Takis Theodorikakos, who is heading to Brussels today for the meeting of the EU development ministers. On the other hand, although it is not connected to the Ministry of Development’s portfolio and is primarily directed at the Environment Ministry, industry associations sent an urgent letter to the government yesterday, as they see a difficult energy winter just around the corner and are calling for measures on industrial electricity, arguing that the measures taken so far are inadequate. In their letter, the 700 energy-intensive industries, which are mainly in the manufacturing sector, warn that the competitive advantage of Greek manufacturing will be significantly affected and are asking the government to incorporate new European tools aimed at addressing temporary price increases caused by the wars.

G. Stournaras in Buenos Aires

—The Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, has been invited by his counterpart, Governor of the Central Bank of Argentina Santiago Bausili, to speak on November 16 in Buenos Aires, as part of a major international conference on economic and monetary policy. The title of his speech will be “Greece: From the Great Economic Crisis to a Model to Follow,” with the Governor of the Bank of Greece presenting the course of the Greek economy from the period of deep crisis and doubts over its sustainability to today’s picture of an economy that has largely restored its fiscal and financial credibility. The choice of topic is not accidental. Just a few years ago, Greece was at the center of the European and international economic crisis, facing an unprecedented fiscal and financial ordeal and the risk of bankruptcy. The country had to implement a series of difficult adjustments, address serious weaknesses in the state and the economy, and gradually restore the confidence of the markets and European institutions.

Who Is Next?

—If an investor with €1 billion for business software had appeared a year ago, conventional wisdom would have said to look in India, Israel or Scandinavia. No one would have assumed that a fund with $110 billion under management would pay 22 times the operating earnings of a Greek enterprise software group, something that represents a major success for Olympia Group and P. Germanos. Hg, with its first investment in the country, is acquiring 70% of EntersoftOne at a valuation of “slightly above €1 billion,” against EBITDA of €44 million and revenue of €136 million in 2025. The transaction did not surprise readers of this column, who were informed about the deal in good time. The rest of the market was expecting it, simply not at this price. Hg revealed its three selection criteria. Mandatory B2B electronic invoicing through myDATA creates demand by law, with around 90,000 customers generating subscription revenue. The transition to the cloud with Artificial Intelligence, which Hg Catalyst will finance. There is also a fourth criterion that no one mentioned. Olympia Group bought Entersoft in 2024, at €8 per share, when the combined group had revenue of around €120 million. Two years later, roughly the same revenue is being valued at twice the EBITDA and four times the value. The stock market reacted as it always does. It is looking for the next one. The market’s list has four names and one “no”. Epsilon Net, with information pointing to a valuation of up to €1 billion, but control passed to National Bank in 2024. Uni Systems, a subsidiary of Quest, with scenarios of a sale or listing and a valuation of €400–450 million. Byte, through IDEAL Holdings, which as a listed fund will eventually have to sell. Profile, whose main shareholder denies any such information, contrary to the market’s belief. Hg’s arithmetic is simple: €1 billion valuation, 90,000 customers, ~€11,000 per customer. Whoever has customers who cannot leave has a price.

EntersoftOne–Hg Deal Triggers Rally in Technology Stocks

—The announcement of the EntersoftOne acquisition by Hg, mentioned above, acted as a strong catalyst for all technology stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange. The deal confirmed the high valuations and attractiveness of the Greek technology sector, triggering a wave of buying interest. In the session following the announcement, Space Hellas led the gains with a 6.5% rise, while Quest gained almost 4%, reaching €7.90 and a new all-time high. Ideal and Profile also posted significant gains (more than 3%), with Profile also closing at an all-time high of €10.54. Meanwhile, Ilyda and Real Consulting recorded gains of more than 2%. Real Consulting stood out, exceeding 84,000 shares in trading volume and reaching a new all-time high of €8.66. As a result of the overall activity, the FTSE/ATHEX Technology & Telecommunications sector index gained 1.73% and closed at 7,601.34 points, marking a new record for the index.

Six Senses Porto Heli and for the staff

-The accommodation of employees has evolved into one of the biggest headaches for hoteliers, both in terms of the difficulty of finding affordable housing and the degree of satisfaction of their employees, since it is well known that many people working in tourism move around, even during the tourist season, wherever they can find better conditions. In response, major tourism investments are now including staff accommodation in their planning from the outset, creating organized housing facilities within or near their properties. A characteristic example is the new Six Senses Porto Heli in Ermionida, the €150 million tourism project under construction (with EKTER as contractor), on the site of the former “Costa Perla”. The project, which also includes 12 branded ultra-luxury villas under the well-known “Six Senses” hotel brand, has a 2028 horizon and is being developed by a consortium of foreign and Greek capital, including London-based CBE Capital, Taconic Capital funds from New York with Cedar Capital as adviser, as well as the Goutos family, which has had a decades-long presence in the real estate market and significant land holdings in Argolida. The project therefore provides for the construction of a complex of 113 rooms and 225 beds in three buildings—two three-storey buildings and one two-storey building—exclusively for staff, which… you can hardly call a small number compared with the resort’s approved capacity of 271 tourist beds. The relevant provision is included in the amendment to the Environmental Impact Assessment submitted by Costa Perla S.A., which also provides for the addition of five piers, coastal protection and landscaping works, a desalination unit and a new photovoltaic installation.

The (Other) Dutchman of Ellaktor

-The full name is Martialis Quirinus van Poecke, but on the European energy map he is widely known as Marcel van Poecke. The Dutch businessman and investor is behind AtlasInvest, the investment company he founded in 2007, which has built a portfolio across the entire energy spectrum, from oil and natural gas to renewables and investments linked to the energy transition. In Greece, van Poecke’s name has been associated for years with Ellaktor. As early as 2021, Atlas N.V. held 34.114 million shares, or approximately 9.8%, with van Poecke as the ultimate controlling shareholder through AtlasInvest. Following the absorption of Atlas N.V. by AtlasInvest Holding B.V. and the OTC transaction through which an additional 5.032% stake was acquired, he directly controls 14.83% of Ellaktor, as stated in the company’s financial statements published yesterday, making him the second-largest shareholder behind Reggeborgh (59.59%) and ahead of Motor Oil (10.41%). Van Poecke and AtlasInvest’s most recent move came a few weeks ago and concerns the renewable energy and energy storage platform Aukera, which secured €460 million in financing for the development of renewable energy, storage and energy infrastructure projects in Belgium, Britain, Germany, Romania and Italy. An interesting detail is that in Aukera, as in Ellaktor, AtlasInvest is investing alongside Reggeborgh.

Safe Bulkers: Gains of Around 18%

-The performance of Safe Bulkers shares following the recent capital increase is interesting. Within just a few days, the stock has gained around 18%, confirming that the capital increase was carried out at an attractive price for investors. At the same time, its trading liquidity also increased following the company’s listing on Euronext Athens (alongside New York), which took place before the summer. The recent €80.4 million capital increase broadened the company’s shareholder base with institutional and professional investors and significantly multiplied daily trading volumes. The market attributes this performance by the stock to the strengthening prospects of the shipping company, which was the one that made the first entry—on the right foot—on the Athens Stock Exchange, which is creating a shipping hub.

Michalis Marakakis Vindicated

-The chairman of Cooperative Bank of Chania was found not guilty in a court case concerning a complaint he had filed in 2019 with the Chania Bar Association. In his complaint, he referred to specific practices by a lawyer that he considered unethical, including client solicitation, advertising and self-promotion, as well as actions that, in his view, were directed against Chania. A legal dispute followed, along with a first-instance ruling against the banker. Yesterday’s decision by the Three-Member Misdemeanors Court of Chania, however, overturned the previous ruling and acquitted him. The particular feature of the decision is that the court accepted as true the facts described by Marakakis in the disputed complaint.

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The measures and the difficult winter, what K.M. said (and what he didn’t), the PASOK and PAOK transfers, a super deal in technology is coming, billions raining down on the Athens Stock Exchange today

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An Infrastructure Company with Networks, Storage and Data Centers

–PPC is today worth €14.1 billion. Apart from being an electricity company, for a fund manager it has a separate kind of calling card. One of the world’s five hyperscalers chose the former lignite site for a giga project with a 2028 horizon. Bloomberg said it the same day with the headline “What backlash?” The essential point, however, is that the benchmark for PPC’s business value is now changing. An average European utility company is valued at around 9 times EV/EBITDA, with EDP being a classic example, with a market capitalization of €20 billion and no hyperscaler partner. PPC, targeting EBITDA of €4.6 billion in 2030 from €2 billion in 2025, is asking to be viewed as an infrastructure company with networks, storage and data centers. It is no longer simply an electricity company. If the markets accept this, the “upside to EDP” is the conservative scenario. There is already talk in the market that, alongside BlackRock, Capital Group, Covalis and QIA, Norges Bank is also considering a position.

Avin Strikes Again in Bulkers

-Remember that about two months ago we wrote that Avin International’s return to dry bulk carriers hardly looked like an opportunistic purchase? Well, note that a second move has now followed. The shipping company of the Vardinogiannis family appears as the buyer of the Handysize Kriti Orion, formerly Bianca, with a capacity of approximately 34,000 dwt and built in 2013, at a price that shipbrokers place close to $13 million. Earlier in the summer came the acquisition of the Kriti Atlas, also a Handysize of around 35,000 dwt. Two vessels of roughly the same class within a few months are now beginning to look like a plan rather than a coincidence. And it is significant that Avin had only last year sold the last bulker it owned, the Evangelia. Now it is returning by choosing smaller and more flexible tonnage, while its core strength remains in tankers, with a fleet of more than 30 vessels. The interest, therefore, is not the two Handysize vessels themselves. They are the first pieces of a new dry bulk fleet. After the second move, the market is expecting a third as well.

The Greeks Bring the City to Athens

-Something is moving in Athens, and it is not only about shipping companies listing on Euronext. Those following the market closely see that around the Greek shipping center, a much larger financing game is gradually taking shape. And the reason is simple: money follows ships. With the Greek-owned fleet standing at 6,822 vessels, nearly 1,000 newbuildings in the orderbook and bank financing already approaching $60 billion, foreign financial institutions have no reason to wait for Greek shipowners in London, New York or Oslo. They are coming closer to them. And this is where the interesting behind-the-scenes story lies. Following the moves by Petros Pappas’ Star Bulk and Poly Chatzioannou’s Safe Bulkers, Euronext Athens has firmly entered the shipping sector’s radar. At the same time, international investment and banking groups are strengthening their presence in the Greek market. So don’t just look at which shipping company will knock on the Stock Exchange’s door next. Look at which bankers, investment firms and foreign funds are renting offices in Athens. Because that may be where the bigger story lies: Greek shipping is not only exporting business power. It is beginning to import financial power into Athens.

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